Auburn vs LSU: Betting Odds on 2 of the SEC’s Best

The Auburn Tigers opened the season by beating Washington 21-16. Ed Orgeron’s LSU Tigers crushed the Miami Hurricanes 33-17 on the same weekend. Auburn and LSU each soundly defeated cupcake opponents in Week 2, leading to this Saturday’s match-up of as-yet unbeaten squads at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Hmm. Seems like the betting odds ought to be pretty tight, eh? That’s not exactly the case. the lines cast War Eagle as a pronounced favorite. It’s almost as if Auburn were taking on a decent mid-major school or an average team from the Big 12.

LSU has a lot to prove after going 9-4 and losing to Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day. But the visitors are a more-threatening opponent than Wake Forest or Oklahoma State or Oregon would be. Why would Vegas conclude otherwise?

In fact, the consensus point spread is Auburn (-9 ½). Moneyline odds are just as loose. Auburn is a (-340) favorite on the ML. It feels strange, but there are reasons.

Auburn absolutely deserves to be to be a favorite. Not only do the Tigers have one of the loudest, craziest cheering throngs in football when playing at home (or anywhere in Alabama) but they’ve got the kind of defense that makes life hard for visitors.

The Washington Huskies felt it September 1^st. Auburn hit Jake Browning from all sides, sacking him several times and forcing a fumble. Myles Gaskin was contained to an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Smoke Monday and Jeremiah Dinson terrorized the Huskies with blitzes out of the secondary.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense rushed for key 1^st downs against a terrific run defense. QB Jarrett Stidham managed the game well, hitting 9 different receivers with almost 300 yards in completions. He did not throw a pick.

But I’m not clear on what severe weakness or disadvantage the sports betting community has spotted in LSU that would lead to the odds being what they are for LSU-Auburn.

Does anyone remember Week 1 against Miami? Louisiana State killed the highly-touted Hurricanes in all 3 phases. The 33-17 final score doesn’t tell the whole story – a 50+ yard Cole Tracy field goal (his 4^th accurate boot of the contest) left the score 33-3 at the end of 3 quarters. LSU held a powerful offensive line and a batch of talented RBs to just 2.4 yards per carry, and exposed Malik Rosier, snagging 2 picks.

Upperclassman Nick Brossette rushed for 5.7 yards per carry on his way to a 100+ yard outing. The senior RB followed that up with another 100+ yard performance against Southeastern Louisiana in Week 2.

Auburn’s signal-caller Stidham is a more-prolific passer than Burrow. But does Orgeron need his QB to be a 400+ yard-per-game dynamo? Absolutely not. There’s more than one way to skin a Tiger, and when the defense is as dominant as LSU’s has appeared to be over the first pair of games, there’s no need for eye-popping numbers.

Joe Burrow has yet to throw an interception this season. There’s still a chance that the 6’4” passer will develop into a big-time throw-maker as a starter in the SEC. His almost-nonexistent stats from years past (including reps in the Big Ten as a member of the Ohio State Buckeyes) are a product of not getting to start for those teams.

Will the junior turn out to be just another LSU signal-caller who lets everyone down in the end? Perhaps. But there’s no way to know that yet. His stat line over the first 2 games hasn’t been great, but he’s done exactly what Orgeron wants – avoid turnovers and take advantage when a dominant D offers the offense easy chances.

Given RBs like Brossette in the backfield and punishing offensive and defensive line play, that could be enough to contend for a conference title.

Make no mistake. With Stidham at the helm, Auburn is likely to have confidence and rhythm advantages in the passing game if the 2 teams of Tigers blow out the O/U line (set conservatively at 45 points) and turn the game into an offensive circus.

However, that isn’t likely, given the fine defense that either side is capable of playing. Ultimately when a game is mispriced in Vegas, it’s mispriced in Vegas. (9 ½) points is too wide of a point spread.

A bet on LSU on the moneyline could pay off bigly. But I’m liking the visitors against the spread, since the possibilities of an LSU win, a razor-close Auburn Tigers win and a romp for the favorites are all about 33% likely to occur.

Take the Louisiana State Tigers to cover (+9 ½) points at Jordan-Hare Stadium (-110).