Australian Open: Andrey Rublev vs. Novak Djokovic Preview, Odds, Prediction

Novak Djokovic faces Andrey Rublev in the Australian Open quarterfinals. The Joker is a man with a mission here, chasing his 10th title down under, and wanting some kind of revenge over the system following his experience here last year. Andrey Rublev had hard times in the Round of 16, playing one exhausting match against Holger Rune, and many believe that he won’t have too much energy against Novak. But… Australian Open delivered too many surprises in the past for Rublev to be written off easily.

Preview

Andrey Rublev (+480) met with Rune in the Round of 16, winning 3-2, but spending more than three and a half hours on the court. The result by sets was 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6 and 7-6, with Rublev winning the tiebreak, 11-9. As stated, the Russian was on the verge of his power but successfully managed to advance to the next round.

His first serve was superb, hitting 24 aces and having only four double faults. He had 73% points won on the first serve and 51% on the second. When it comes to breaking points, he had 5 converted in 13 attempts.

In the previous rounds, Rublev had pretty tough rivals. The first rival was Dominic Thiem, the former US Open champion, but Rublev didn’t have trouble, beating the opponent 3-0. Emil Ruusuvuori fell 3-1, and Daniel Evans couldn’t take a single set in the third round.

Novak Djokovic (-550) wiped the floor with Alex De Minaur in the Round of 16. The Serb didn’t forget De Minaur’s remarks during last year’s Australian Open and Novak’s saga, so he put a bit of additional effort into his performance, beating the Aussie 3-0. De Minaur managed to win five games throughout the entire event.

His path up until this moment has been relatively easy. Robert Carballes Baena was an easy task, 3-0; Enzo Couacaud was defeated 3-1, with Djokovic experiencing some problems with his hamstring, while Grigor Dimitrov couldn’t take a set against Novak,

That injury is its biggest rival for Novak. The good news for his fans was that against De Minaur, we didn’t see him struggle with movement like against Couacaud. For the moment, that is the only issue in his game that could create some trouble in the future.

Head to Head

Rublev and Djokovic have met three times so far. Novak has a 2-1 lead in the series against the Russian. Their first meeting was at the ATP Masters Finals in Turin in 2021, when Nole won 2-0 in a group stage. Rublev had his vengeance in the finals of the Belgrade Open in 2022, defeating Novak in front of his own crowd, 2-1, but Djokovic responded again at the ATP Masters Finals in Turin, with the same result as one year before, 2-0.

Prediction

There is a lot of talk about Novak in Australia. There are certain tensions surrounding the Serb, who is not in love with the mass media these days, but still keeps his focus on the game. Other than that, Nole plays perfect tennis, and we believe that he won’t have problems beating Rublev; furthermore, he will cover a -1.5 set handicap.

Pick: Novak -1.5 -300