Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy

120 years ago, the University of Michigan defeated Michigan Agricultural College 39-0. The two teams began playing every year, with U of M deciding to suit up their freshman team against the Aggies, essentially treating the matchup as a practice game.

It was not long before the MAC football program had become strong enough to beat Michigan, winning for the first time in 1913 by the score of 12-7.

Why do we care about this? Because in 1955, Michigan Agricultural College changed its name to Michigan State University. Today, MSU has tangled with Michigan well over 100 times, with U of M leading the all-time series 69-36-5.

With these rivals set to clash on Saturday, October 20th at 12 ET, it is worth taking a look at some numbers to see if this game is worth betting. Spoiler alert – it is!

Michigan – Michigan State Stats Comparison

Take a look at a side-by-side comparison of several key stats. The Wolverines definitely have the edge on paper.

Team	Record	Pts/G	Rush Yds/G	Pass Yds/G	Pts Allowed/G	Rush Yds Allowed/G	Pass Yds Allowed/G	TO Margin
U of M	6-1	38.1	217	207	15.4	108.9	129.1	+3
MSU	4-2	26.2	123	271.5	22.3	62.3	286.3	0

These numbers are even more impressive when you include their NCAA ranks. Michigan currently boasts the nation’s best passing defense, the 2nd-fewest yards allowed, and the 9th-fewest points allowed.

Michigan State is no slouch, fielding the nation’s best rushing defense by a wide margin. It is no surprise that the total for this game is only 41 points – the lowest of any game on the college football schedule this week.

Recent Head-to-Head History

If you are a Michigan fan I will warn you – these numbers are pretty ugly. Take a look at the dominance the Spartans have maintained over the past 10 meetings.

Year	Line	Total	Score	Spread Winner	O/U
2018	MICH -7	41	??	??	??
2017	MICH -10.5	40.5	14-10 MSU	MSU	U
2016	MICH -24.5	54.5	32-23 MICH	MSU	O
2015	MICH -7	42.5	27-23 MSU	MSU	O
2014	MSU -17	47.5	35-11 MSU	MSU	U
2013	MSU -5	45.5	29-6 MSU	MSU	U
2012	MICH -9	43	12-10 MICH	MSU	U
2011	MSU -3	47.5	28-14 MSU	MSU	U
2010	MICH -5	64.5	34-17 MSU	MSU	U
2009	MSU -3	54	26-20 MSU	MSU	U
2008	MSU -4	45	35-21 MSU	MSU	O

Not only have the Spartans worn the pants in this rivalry lately, but the under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Michigan – Michigan State Verdict

Something has to give. Michigan has rushed for more yards than they have thrown for this year but they now face the stiffest run defense in the nation. Will Jim Harbaugh finally spread out his offense or will he continue to pound the rock with his pro-style formations?

The Spartans have been vulnerable through the air this season, leading me to believe that Harbaugh may be holding a couple of tricks up his sleeve. If he is ever going to implement some downfield passing options to his offense, this is the week to do so.

It is going to be a classic chess match between Harbaugh and Dantonio. Harbaugh has the luxury of playing with better pieces, but Dantonio has plenty of whiteboard motivational material, considering that his Spartans have won 8 of the last 10 meetings and are 7-point dogs.

With a defense reminiscent of the 1997 Wolverines and a creative play caller like Harbaugh, I expect Michigan to jump out to an early lead, silence the East Lansing crowd, and control the game.

Take Michigan to cover the 7-point spread due to their ability to run the ball and hold onto leads.