Bellator 206 Betting Guide

Today, we’ll share our best bets for Bellator 206.

These are the same bets that we’ll be making this weekend, using the exact strategy that helped us profit from UFC Fight Night 136 and UFC Fight Night 137 in recent weeks.

Let’s get started.

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Bellator 206 might be the greatest card in Bellator history.

Headlined by a clash between two highly-skilled, world-class mixed martial artists, welterweight champion Rory MacDonald will attempt to become Bellator’s first simultaneous two-division champion when he challenges middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi.

It’s the fight that MacDonald, Mousasi, and fight fans around the world wanted, and we can only thank Scott Coker and the Bellator team for putting this super fight together.

Adding to the spectacle is several other highly-anticipated fights featuring old favorites, underrated monsters, and one highly-regarded prospect.

Bellator 206 – Saturday, September 29, 10:00pm ET

• Gegard Mousasi vs. Rory MacDonald
• Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva
• Douglas Lima vs. Andrey Koreshkov
• Aaron Pico vs. Leandro Higo

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rory MacDonald

Gegard Mousasi and Rory MacDonald are two of the most well-rounded mixed martial artists in the world today.

At a time when many of the top contenders have one significant advantage above all other opponents, Mousasi and MacDonald have proven to be exceptionally skilled no matter where the fight takes place.

On the mat, Mousasi and MacDonald are supremely talented and have systematically broken down some of the toughest contenders in the UFC and Bellator. They’re equally outstanding on the feet, as well, and have beaten some of the highest ranked fighters in the world today with their striking alone.

Regardless of their similarities, Mousasi has a significant edge according to the bookmakers and the public.

• Gegard Mousasi: -220
• Rory MacDonald: +216

Mousasi’s implied probability to win this main event is 68.8%, and that does seem a little higher than expected. After all, if these two were competing naturally in the same weight class, they’d likely be inseparable.

However, we do need to account for the size and strength disparity between these two fighters. Mousasi, a natural middleweight, is already relatively strong for the 185 lbs division. Then again, MacDonald handled Douglas Lima well, and Lima could easily compete with the best of them in the middleweight division.

What to expect?

This fight is going to be won or lost in the center of the Bellator cage this weekend. Mousasi generally takes the center and commands it with his slow and steady forward movement. He’s almost never up on his toes and prefers to stay flat-footed, meaning that he is almost always ready to lead with his jab or answer back with a strike. Much of Mousasi’s best work comes when he forces his opponent toward the cage. From here, Mousasi can secure a body lock and begin the process of dragging an opponent to the ground. It’s difficult for an opponent to escape the grips of Mousasi and he starts to rain down strikes once he secures a dominant position.

MacDonald fights similarly. If you can recall the fight with current UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley, MacDonald consistently pressed Woodley back to the cage and unloaded precise and speedy combinations of punches to the head and body. Like Mousasi, MacDonald also leads with his jab and looks to establish this strike early into a fight. One of the major differentiating factors between the two is that MacDonald occasionally mixes in a variety of unique kicks to his stand-up game. These might not impact the fight directly, but they will undoubtedly gain the respect of Mousasi who likes to move marginally out of range of kicks.

And that’s also another point of discussion. If this is a battle of the jab – from two of the best at using the jab in mixed martial arts – it might come down to footwork, and not strength and size, to determine who controls the flow. Mousasi tends to move directly backward when evading strikes, and if MacDonald is aware of this opportunity, he could follow through with combinations – and not single attacks – to push Mousasi back and regain control of the cage.

Many are quick to forget MacDonald’s right-hand counterpunch because it has been missing from his most recent bouts. Being matched against southpaws, MacDonald was never in a position to answer back over a lazy jab with a right hand. And as stiff and powerful as Mousasi’s jab is, he does bring it down to his waist occasionally after throwing it.

Gegard Mousasi should be the favorite for this main event, don’t get us wrong, but not by this much. The value is with Rory MacDonald.

Bet on Rory MacDonald at odds of +231 with SportBet.

Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Wanderlei Silva are ready to battle once more.

• Quinton Jackson: -255
• Wanderlei Silva: +241

This will be the fourth time that Jackson and Silva compete against each other in mixed martial arts competition and the first time in the Bellator cage. Silva scored two big KO/TKO victories over Rampage back in the Pride days, but it was Rampage who left the most recent mark on this rivalry with a brilliant left hook KO/TKO finish at UFC 92. Although that fight took place almost ten years ago now, there’s still a lot of information that can be used to analyze this matchup.

Firstly, “Rampage” has improved his boxing skills immensely since the first two fights in Pride. He carries some serious heat in his hands and is also surprisingly adept at evading incoming punches. He’s strong enough in the clinch to muscle his way out of a poor position, and he is unquestionably going to attempt a slam when the opportunity is there to do so.

Wanderlei can certainly approach this fight in a number of ways, but we’re entirely unsure as to what his best strategy might be. He still has enough knockout power in his strikes to potentially finish “Rampage” at Bellator 206 and he’s also dangerous when moving forward with combinations. Is that a good idea against the heavy-handed Jackson, though? Probably not. Then again, Wanderlei is skilled in the clinch and can handle himself when it comes to grappling, too.

Wanderlei might be the craftier of these two veterans overall, but one of Jackson’s punches can instantly shake up the entire fight.

Bet on Quinton Jackson at odds of -255 with BetOnline.

Douglas Lima vs. Andrey Koreshkov

Bellator 206 will also play host to another fantastic rematch this weekend in San Jose.

• Douglas Lima: +125 (BetOnline)
• Andrey Koreshkov: -137 (SportBet)

Douglas Lima and Andrey Koreshkov is the first scheduled bout of the recently announced Bellator Welterweight Grand Prix, that will see eight of the best welterweights in the world compete in a tournament. At the end of it all, the winner will have claimed the Bellator Welterweight Championship that is currently held by Rory MacDonald and also take home the $1,000,000 first-place prize.

Tied at one win apiece, Lima and Koreshkov will be looking to put this welterweight rivalry to rest by eliminating the other in the first round of the tournament. It was Koreshkov who first tasted success in this rivalry when he defeated Lima by decision at Bellator 140 in July 2015. It wasn’t long before Lima reclaimed his title by defeating the same man who took it from him in the first place, and he finished Koreshkov with a nasty knockout in November 2016.

In their first fight, Koreshkov took advantage of Lima’s knee injury by continually taking him down to the mat and controlling him for minutes at a time. By the time the scorecards were read, Koreshkov had won the fight 50-45 in the eyes of two judges.

A fully-healthy Douglas Lima bounced back in the rematch, however. He chipped away at the legs of Koreshkov and this created a sense of urgency from the champion who was clearly hurting. Koreshkov, after arguably winning the first two rounds, moved into the pocket with Lima and was clipped by a devastating left hook.

So what can we expect this time?

Koreshkov is an outstanding striker who uses a mixture of unorthodox kicks and spinning attacks, together with his lightning-fast speed to overwhelm opponents. However, most of Koreshkov’s best work has been on the mat during these two fights with Lima. You could even argue that he has won (or was winning) every one of the eight rounds of combat so far.

His ‘punches in bunches’ style has often seen him land two or three strikes in the time that an opponent can answer back with just one of their own.

But that’s exactly where it gets interesting against Douglas Lima.

That one punch from Lima is enough to turn the lights out and end the fight, just like he did the last time.

Combine that with his savage leg kicks and consistent pressure, and Lima is a difficult challenge for any opponent. Yes, he fatigues late in a fight and he doesn’t do enough to win over the judges, but that knockout power is always there.

It’s another close fight and we’ll be taking Douglas Lima to score another vicious knockout finish this time around.

Bet on Douglas Lima at odds of +125 with BetOnline.

Aaron Pico vs. Leandro Higo

It wasn’t all that long ago when we were referring to Aaron Pico as a “blue-chip prospect.”

Now, at the age of 22, and with only four fights to his name, Pico is heavily favored against former Bellator title challenger, Leandro Higo.

• Aaron Pico: -480 (BetOnline)
• Leandro Higo: +415 (SportBet)

The question, of course, is whether Aaron Pico deserves to be this much of a betting favorite in the toughest test of his career to date.

Leandro Higo almost defeated Eduardo Dantos, who was the bantamweight champion, in his Bellator debut last year, and lost only by split decision. And most recently, Higo was in the cage with current bantamweight champion Darrion Caldwell, where he was submitted in the first round with a guillotine choke. Both Caldwell and Dantas are exceptional competitors in the Bellator’s bantamweight division, and now Higo will make the most up to featherweight to challenge Pico.

The danger for Higo is undoubtedly the heavy hands of the accomplished collegiate wrestler. Pico has destroyed his three opponents with his slick boxing alone, finishing each by KO/TKO in the first round. His defensive wrestling was on display in his most recent fight with Lee Morrison, but we’re yet to see his offensive wrestling on display. And do we really need to? With the devastating KO/TKO finishes we’ve seen from Pico so far, it looks like his best path to victory is merely stuffing takedowns and keeping the fight standing.

As for Higo, he’s likely going to want to slow the fight down and find a way to take Pico into deep water for the first time in his career. If Higo can get Pico into the second and third round and find a way to secure a dominant position on the mat (most likely by taking the back), he can definitely win this one via submission.

Pico’s a deserving favorite, but we were expecting him to be closer to -200 than -500. Take Higo and we’ll attempt to cash in on these generous underdog odds at Bellator 206.

Bet on Leandro Higo at odds of +415 with SportBet.

Bellator 206 Best Bets

• Rory MacDonald to win: +231 at SportBet
• Quinton Jackson to win: -255 at BetOnline
• Douglas Lima to win: +125 with BetOnline
• Leandro Higo to win: +415 with SportBet

If you haven’t already, make sure to check out our Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting.