Best and Worst Road Teams in the NFL

Imagine you have a huge presentation at work tomorrow. Everyone is going to be there: the owner, the CEO, your manager, all of your peers, even your largest competitor. You need to perform well tomorrow for fear of losing your job to the promising young guy the firm just hired.

I’m going to present two scenarios, two possible ways this presentation can happen. Decide which sounds more comfortable.

Scenario 1: This evening you briefly brush up on your presentation and then spend a relaxing couple of hours with your wife before getting to bed at a decent time. You wake up early, make yourself a hearty breakfast, perform your morning routine, and are eager to give your presentation.

Scenario 2: Instead of holding the presentation at your firm, it will now be held at your main competitor’s corporate office which is 2 hours away.

Not wanting to wake up that early, you drive the two hours this evening and stay in a hotel. You arrive past your preferred bedtime and do not sleep as well as you would in your own bed. You wake up, eat a hotel breakfast, and then use the GPS on your phone to help you get to the office on time.

The more comfortable choice is obvious. One of these describes life at home while the other describes life on the road.

Some NFL teams can handle the road life, others fall flat on their bellies. I will give a perfect example of each.

Worst Road Team of 2018

I’ll start with the bad. The worst road team of 2018 has been the Green Bay Packers. It is humorous to me that those in Green Bay are talking playoffs because the Packers have not won a single road game this season. San Francisco is also winless on the road, but they are 2-4 ATS.

Green Bay has only managed to cover the spread once in their 6 road games. Green Bay has the worst SU road record AND the worse ATS road record.

Unlike the Giants who are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS away from home this year, the Packers continually fail to meet expectations. Here is how those contests have turned out.

Week	Opponent	GB Spread	Result, Score	ATS Result
3	Redskins	-1.5	L, 31-17	L
5	Lions	+1	L, 31-23	L
8	Rams	+7.5	L, 29-27	W
9	Patriots	+6.5	L, 31-17	L
11	Seahawks	+2.5	L, 27-24	L
12	Vikings	+4.5	L, 24-17	L
Total		+3.4	0-6	1-5

Anything that can go wrong for the Packers has. Even the refs seem to be in on it.

I think the difference between the Packers home and road play can be illustrated by 3 statistics: rushing yards, points scored, and points allowed. This chart shows Green Bay’s 2018 splits for each.

	Rush Yds/G	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G
Home	123.8	27.8	18.8
Away	91.8	20.8	28.8
Total	106.4	24.0	24.3

At home, the Packers run the ball effectively and win by an average of 9 points. On the road, however, they struggle to establish a strong run game and lose by an average of 10. Packers’ fans should not even begin to think about the playoffs until they can correct this glaring weakness.

Best Road Team of 2018

Saving the best for last. Drumroll please … the New Orleans Saints are the NFL’s best road team in 2018. The Saints are a perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS away from home.

Not only are they winning all of their games but are winning by far more than expected each time. Here’s a look at how their road games have played out.

Week	Opponent	NO Spread	Result, Score	ATS Result
3	Falcons	+1.5	W, 43-37	W
4	Giants	-3.5	W, 33-18	W
7	Ravens	+2.5	W, 24-23	W
8	Vikings	-2.5	W, 30-20	W
10	Bengals	-6	W, 51-14	W
Total		-1.6	5-0	5-0

If you have been an NFL fan at any point over the past 2 decades, you know Drew Brees. He is a perennial top-3 quarterback in the league and the fearless leader of the Saints’ offense.

Here are Brees’ splits for the 2018 season. Notice how his numbers do dip slightly away from the Superdome but are still extremely impressive.

	Pass Att/G	Comp %	TD/G	INT/G	Passer Rating
Home	32.8	77.7	3.3	0.17	139.1
Away	31.8	74.8	1.8	0.2	112.4
Total	32.4	76.4	2.64	0.18	127.3

A 112.4 passer rating on the road?! Only Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, and Jared Goff have a better rating overall, and Brees beats them with just his road numbers. Incredible.

Take a look at the Saints home/road splits in the same 3 categories I evaluated the Packers on.

	Rush Yds/G	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G
Home	111.2	38.0	24.0
Away	159.4	36.2	22.4
Total	133.1	37.2	23.3

Forget the ridiculous fact that the Saints are averaging nearly 40 points per game and focus on those splits. 159 rushing yards on the road?! No wonder they are undefeated. I would argue the Saints are playing better away from home this year.

I picked against New Orleans once earlier in the season but will never do it again. The Saints are currently playing like the best team in football and cannot be underestimated no matter the circumstances.