Bookies Think Man United vs Chelsea is a Total Toss-Up

The Red Devils of Manchester United have spent much of a tumultuous 2018-19 season playing the role of spoiler. United began the year by beating Real Madrid in a penultimate friendly, made life difficult for Ronaldo’s side in the Champions League round robin, and later knocked Chelsea out of the FA Cup before falling to Wolves in the next match.

Finally, the club spoiled – or practically curdled – Paris Saint-Germain’s standing in the Champions League by stunning the proud Parisians in the Round of 16. But it wasn’t long before MUFC suffered a humiliating loss to Barcelona in the quarterfinals.

Is it possible for this United squad to win anything for itself, or just ruin the party for other teams? We’ll find out in short order, beginning this Sunday when the Red Devils host Chelsea in a fierce battle for top-4 position in the Premiership.

Odds as Tight as a Violin String

It may not be mathematically possible to craft a tighter set of gambling odds than the lines at MyBookie (and a few other books) on Sunday’s fixture at Old Trafford.

The goal spread is a pick’em. At a betting site known for weird and wild payoff odds for ATS and O/U markets, the spread-payoff numbers are absolutely plain and even-up at (-110) apiece. Meanwhile Chelsea is the thinnest of thin favorites on the moneyline with a (+156) payoff next to United’s (+158).

How do you handicap a plus-.002 discrepancy on a betting line anyway? Someone must have found a pimple on Paul Pogba’s elbow.

MyBookie’s Over/Under line is at least a little looser (it helps that its not a handicap of who will win or lose) at (2.5) with a (-105) payoff on the Under and a steeper (-115) house % for successful Over bets.

A goal total of (2.5) is not where I would have forecast the O/U. It seems that as much as Chelsea’s attack has been diminished in the betting public’s eyes, the recent struggles of Man United to score in big matches – such as the 180+ minutes of frustration against Barcelona or the recent 0-2 loss to Manchester City – are vivid in the minds of speculators.

What if keepers David de Gea and Kepa are the squads’ best players right now?

Take a Cold Shower on the Red Devils

It helps to keep a wide-view lens when handicapping Manchester United, just as with any team that dominates the headlines. Remember that the media’s mood soars and plummets more wildly than the vibe in a dressing room or coach’s office.

Whispers of discontent abound. Striker Marcus Rashford is whispered to have an “attitude problem,” giving bettors pause about the player who was heralded as one of the hottest new sensations in the EPL just a short time ago.

De Gea’s not-so-smooth contract negotiations are also a popular topic of tabloid shrieking and bloggers’ speculations. The noise could be affecting his play.

Pogba is also rumored to have been read the riot act by teammates following a recent dreary loss to Everton.

Much like their opponents this weekend, the Red Devils have been playing well in most winnable matches, collecting the points they absolutely must have to earn another Champions League bid in 2019-20. United won with counterattacks in a 2-1 result over West Ham on 4/13 as Pogba was a nightmare in the Hammer box.

There’s just the small little fact that MUFC hasn’t scored a single non-penalty goal in any competition since young Scott McTominay connected in the 13^th minute against Wolves on April 2^nd. That’s a long time to go in-between successful shots.

Blues Hanging on to CL Placement

Norman Vincent Peale believed that if you say something enough times, you can help the words turn into reality. Perhaps so many Chelsea supporters worried out loud about the club’s inconsistent attack that the team’s strikers felt the weight of anxiety.

It’s not so much that the Blues can’t score, it’s that the attack falls completely flat in the worst instances. Maurizio Sarri’s side beat Tottenham in a dramatic Carabao Cup semifinal back in January, but suffered a terrible 0-4 loss to Cherries just days later in the Premier League.

Later in winter the squad had a nice unbeaten streak going in EPL play and came into a match with Toffees having whipped Dynamo Kyiv 8-0 on aggregate in a Europa League tie, but fell victim to a clean sheet from Jordan Pickford and a winner by Richarlison.

Average goal-scoring is not normally prohibitive of success, especially not for a club that boasts Kepa in goal and a terrific backline to protect him. But as an American football coach once put it, a team’s potential can get a coach fired. Jorginho was heralded as Chelsea’s saving grace, a midfielder who could work magic with the ball while defending skillfully without it. The Brazilian hasn’t been a perfect fit in Sarri’s system.

Striker Gonzalo Higuaín has 4 tallies in 11 Premiership matches, while star midfielder N’Golo Kanté’s yellow cards (3) almost outnumber his goal total of 4. Quality is there in spades…but there’s no one setting the world, or even England, on fire.

Sarri’s stubborn streak has also hampered the club. Manchester City executed a 6-0 drubbing of the Blues in a match back in February, with the Chelsea coach unwilling to adjust a formation that was getting killed with through-passes and runs down the wing and up the middle. It was as if Sarri had made a decision to live or die with his pregame plan, with no regard for what City was doing.

None of this to say that the Blues aren’t a fine football club. In fact, the team is right where it needs to be to qualify top-four with just a few matches left. Chelsea has lost to Liverpool and drawn with a desperate Burnley side in April, but rarely loses as the favorite.

A victory at Old Trafford on Sunday would put the Blues 6 points clear of Manchester United and potentially 4 points ahead of Arsenal.

However, give United 3 points in the match and the race for 4^th position may turn into a total free-for-all.

My Prediction and Moneyline Pick

Michael Wilbon once gave a talk at Northwestern about the Chicago Cubs and the Curse of the Billy Goat (which was broken with the ballclub’s World Series win in 2016). Wilbon laughed that newcomers to the Cubs would say things like, “I came to Chicago to win. I could care less about some old goat.” And then they’d spend a few months in the Windy City and find out just where things stood.

The Curse might have been 100% fan superstition, but it was so pervasive that it felt real. It did affect the psychology of the team.

I’m thinking the scenario at Manchester United could be similar, given the amount of noise and negativity surrounding the club when it loses and fails to score.

If the Red Devils had an entrenched roster with contracts signed on the dot, it would be possible to shrug-off the disappointments of April and bear down in a match that could go a long way to qualify the squad for the top UEFA level next season. But the club is in transition. Emotional leaders on the pitch are consumed with personal business and unable to produce consistent form. New faces are talented, but not in position to take over.

United may not be in a bona-fide slump. Anyone can fall short against clubs like City and Barcelona. That reassuring fact may not matter if the footballers lack confidence due to the constant crush of high expectations and disappointed supporters.

Chelsea will be on the road. But the Blues have the high ground on the table and otherwise. Less distractions and manageable pressure should give the visitors an upper hand.

Take Chelsea on the moneyline (+156) or ATS (pick’em) at Old Trafford on Sunday.