Brighton vs City: Sky Blues Monumental Favorites to Clinch 2nd Trophy

Just how close to City to a domestic triple?

The English Football League Cup is theirs. The FA Cup can be won with a simple victory over upstart Hornets.

And the Premier League trophy will belong to Citizens if they can beat Brighton & Hove Albion on the road on Sunday.

The Sky Blues are currently ahead by 1 point on the table, and could theoretically lose a battle and still win the war if Reds fall unexpectedly to Wolves at Anfield. Liverpool, meanwhile, would only need a draw with Wolves to share the trophy if Brighton somehow conquers City at the same time.

It would be a gambler’s worst nightmare to have taken City to cover ATS, for instance, and watch as Liverpool falls badly behind…which could turn Citizens’ 2nd-half against Brighton into a somewhat more-leisurely affair.

Yet nobody expects either club to falter at this late date. They’ve each been on a mad dash to the finish line, neither club dropping a point since Liverpool drew 0-0 with United and Everton on consecutive weeks in late winter.

Liverpool F.C. is a (-315) moneyline favorite at Bovada Sportsbook, and it’s interesting how Las Vegas handicappers are taking Wolverhampton seriously after a season of noise-making in English football, even at (+900) odds to win on Sunday. Bovada’s goal spread for the contest is a meager 1 and ½. Bookmakers are taking Wolves’ chances seriously.

The same can’t be said for Bovada’s odds on Brighton and Man City, even though Seagulls will have the advantage of playing in Falmer Stadium. Bovada’s line on Brighton F.C. to prevail is a big whopping (+1500) with a (-700) moneyline on City and a (-120) payoff on “Over” for a healthy total of (3 ½).

Is it that much of a consensus that Citizens will romp after a series of close calls, disappointments, and tense circumstances over the last few weeks?

Big Fat Underdog Moneyline for Brighton

Pep Guardiola’s chance for an amazing “quadruple” was lost when Manchester City was upset by Tottenham in the Champions League. Other than that, City has kept on winning matches by hook or crook since winter.

Except that the flurries of goal-scoring that characterized many of the Sky Blues’ earlier victories are now missing. The last time the team scored more than 2 goals in a Premier League match was in a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace on April 14^th.

But it was in September when City and Brighton last played football together. Despite the match taking place in rowdy Manchester, the Seagulls hung close for 60+ minutes and only lost 2-0.

The Vegas line on Brighton-to-win is (+1500). Are the hosts at Falmer Stadium a decent upset pick at those odds?

It’s not as if Manchester City isn’t bothered. Kevin De Bruyne has missed the last 2 weeks with a hamstring injury. Fernandinho is also questionable for the remaining 2 fixtures with a knee injury, and backup goalkeeper Claudio Bravo is out, putting even more pressure on Ederson.

But Seagulls are a little bit under the weather too. Dutch midfielder Davy Pröpper and forward José Izquierdo missed a Cinco de Mayo contest against Arsenal and remain uncertain for the fixture against Man City on Sunday.

In addition, Brighton has (barely) clinched a spot in the Premiership for next season. I’m reading that a little differently than others are. As opposed to any of the high-payoff moneylines offered for a Seagulls win or a Draw result, I’m looking at a probable cautious win by Manchester City to the tune of 2-1 or 3-1.

Not necessarily a win on the Under. But Brighton-to-Cover (+2) seems very solid.

Taking the Under for Falmer Stadium

Seagulls captain Bruno plans to retire after Matchday 38, giving the homestanding side cause to play a spirited 2-half match. Another angle is that since Brighton has nothing to lose and is free to try to spoil the party for Man City.

Could a loose, free-wheeling match lead to 4+ goals?

I’m not buying it. Yes, there’s plenty of attacking talent strewn throughout the host lineup. English veteran Glenn Murray has tallied 12 goals this season. Shane Duffy has provided a surprising offensive spark from the back line with the first 5 goals in his Premier League career French attacking midfielder Anthony Knockaert notched a thrilling goal against Crystal Palace to keep Brighton hovering above relegation.

But even as City’s record-setting attack begins to diminish at the end of a long season, we recognize that Sergio Agüero and Leroy Sané are the best “defense” Pep could ever ask for. Opposing squads know that opening up the game means a quick, certain death.

That will play on the mind of Brighton as the kickoff nears. The hosts will know that their best chance at a stunner is to play cautiously in the 1^st half. With the pressure Man City is under, it might take a little adversity to snap them into abandon for the final charge.

Sky Blues will win the 2^nd crown of the triple. It won’t come easy, though, and almost surely not by 3+ goals.

Take Brighton and Hove Albion to cover (+2) goals on Sunday.