Check Out These 4 Potential NCAA Tournament Cinderellas

My favorite March Madness handicap of 2018 was predicting the Buffalo Bulls to beat the Arizona Wildcats in the Round of 64.

One reason is because Buffalo’s upset win proved that the first rule of good handicapping always applies. No matter how highly-touted a team might be, their outcomes – good and bad – can still be predicted based on principles and common sense.

The Pac-12 stalwarts were riding on the broad back of Deandre Ayton, a 7-footer who could destroy opposing schools in the paint. But Ayton was up to his long neck in a scandal, thanks to a report that Wildcat head coach Sean Miller paid the big center-forward to enroll at Tucson. There were calls for Miller’s resignation prior to the tip-off of March Madness. The Buffalo Bulls were only a 13^th seed in the Big Dance, but their quality was too much for distracted student-athletes.

Making the right call based on psychology and a news narrative is one thing. But the Bulls’ 89-68 victory was enjoyable for another reason – the Cinderella factor.

There’s nothing like an underdog run at the NCAA Tournament grail to get casual fans and hoops bettors excited. A select few long-shot futures gamblers scored a pretty penny when Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago advanced against all odds (literally) to reach last season’s Final Four in San Antonio.

Which double-digit seed will shock the betting public this time around? We’ll start with a group of cagers who already threatened a Cinderella bid last March…and look at 3 other talented upstarts for good measure.

All listed odds represent current or recent Vegas and London consensus. Remember that a team’s “prop” odds to reach the Final Four will tend to be about 1/4^th as long as the squad’s line to win the NCAA Championship. Not every sportsbook offers Final Four futures markets on all of these underdogs all the time, so look around until you find your pick.

Buffalo ((+9000 Odds-to-Win the NCAA Tournament)

Last year’s 1-1 record in March Madness simply whetted the Buffalo program’s appetite. The 2018-19 squad shas been on a tear under skipper Nate Oats, starting the season 19-3 with wins over West Virginia and Syracuse.

6’3” senior guard C.J. Massinburg is a versatile threat from the perimeter, averaging 18.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game while nailing 42.7% of his shots from downtown. Nick Perkins is veteran power forward who has been notching 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

The run-and-gun Bulls can light up the scoreboard, and foul trouble has been one of the only real issues with an athletic defense. If the group can stop fouling, they can potentially scalp a series of high-ranked opponents before it’s over.

Arizona State (+12500)

Wins over Kansas and Mississippi State have shown that that the Sun Devils can compete at an elite level. Unless Bobby Hurley’s squad hits the wall in the Pac-12, I expect to see ASU getting a decent March Madness seed and doing damage in the tourney.

Frosh guard Luguentz Dort is imposing his will with 16.2 points per game for the Sun Devils. Meanwhile, athletic 6’8” forward Zylan Cheatham has been a double-double machine, tallying 11.5 points and 11 rebounds per game.

Reckless passing and mental mistakes could become a real bummer down the stretch. Opponents have been draining open 3-pointers and lay-ups in the transition game with help of ASU’s 14-turnover average. But that’s also the type of statistic that can drive a March contender’s line longer and open a door for the savvy bettor.

Handicappers may glance at the squad’s apparent “bad” points-against performances and not realize that ASU’s half-court defense has a high ceiling.

Central Florida (+12500)

Talk about an on-the-rise athletic program. The UCF Knights are flourishing on the hardcourt as well as on the gridiron.

Excellent play during the winter months has put Johnny Dawkins’ squad in line for a first NCAA tourney berth for the program since 2005. The dynamic perimeter duo of 6’2” redshirt senior guard B.J. Taylor and 6’6” redshirt junior guard Aubrey Dawkins leads the way, but UCF’s team-oriented offense is methodical and pushes the ball inside looking for short jumpers and lay-ups.

Opposing offenses struggle to find open looks in transition or in half court sets, and UCF ranks 14th in the nation in defensive FG percentage. The Knights have the kind of unique and quirky game that helped UMBC and Loyola-Chicago slay giants of the sport last March.

Murray State (+25000)

Should the Murray State Racers reach the tourney, there is a star in the making you’ll want to have already heard about when at the office water cooler. 6’3” sophomore guard Ja Morant is averaging a sensational 23.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. He’s one of the most electrifying players in the country and could potentially be the top guard taken in the 2019 NBA Draft.

The Racers are also blessed with a backcourt duo of 6’3” senior Shaq Buchanan and 6’5” freshman Tevin Brown. Murray State shoots at a Gonzaga-like clip of nearly 50 percent and has one of the most dangerous backcourts in the nation.

Meanwhile, Matt McMahon’s defense is laser-sharp on the perimeter and ranks 5th in Division 1 in defensive 3-point FG percentage. What’s the biggest difference between Murray State and NC State? Murray State isn’t in the ACC.

Wager on a Final Four Appearance, Not a Championship

Remember to look for those To-Reach-Final-Four futures lines on potential Cinderella squads, since the chances of Murray State (or UCF) reaching the Final Four and then losing are 5-10 times better than the likelihood of a national title.

But don’t worry about the risk vs reward ratio losing its appeal – there are so many brand-name college teams that the Final Four odds on an Ohio Valley or American Athletic Conference school will always offer a mighty nice payoff on a winning slip.