Cincinnati is Favored Over Virginia Tech in Annapolis

Sportsbooks are fairly uniform in their lines for the upcoming Military Bowl in Annapolis. Cincinnati is less than a TD favorite to beat the Virginia Tech Hokies, but enjoys a consensus (-220) number on the moneyline. VT is a (+190) underdog.

The conservative total (53.5) is perhaps a reflection of bookies (and the gambling public) handicapping the recent history of the Hokies instead of this year’s version.

This isn’t your momma’s Virginia Tech…for better or for worse.

Mostly worse.

The first sign of trouble came in the 4^th weekend of the schedule. Virginia Tech had whipped Florida State in the season opener, and trounced William & Mary before dealing with a tropical weather cancellation against East Carolina. Still, the Hokies were 1-0 against the FBS and the FCS. No sweat.

That was before Old Dominion scored 28 points in the 4^th quarter to beat VT on September 22^nd. The Hokie offense wasn’t bad despite an injury to starting QB Josh Jackson, and senior RB Steven Peoples raced for 150+ yards against the Monarchs. But the defense was putrid, allowing an unheralded QB named Blake LaRussa to pass for almost 500 yards as Old Dominion scored TDs on each of 4 final drives.

Justin Fuente’s squad would go on to suffer a 4-game ACC losing streak, giving up a combined 170 points in 16 quarters. The front-7 was losing the line of scrimmage, and DBs like Reggie Floyd and Caleb Farley were getting torched by ordinary passers.

The low point was a match-up with Pitt on November 10^th in which the Hokies gave up 13.7 ypc. Not yards per completion, mind you. Yards per carry.

Virginia Tech came back to beat Virginia in a rivalry scrum. But Jackson is not well enough to play in the Military Bowl, and backup quarterback Ryan Willis is not capable of out-scoring foes who move the chains at will. The defense must play better or the squad will get soaked again on the final day of 2018.

Kings of Queen City

Before the #Bearcats kick off in tomorrow’s @MilitaryBowl, let’s take a look at a few of our favorite 📸 of the @GoBearcatsFB season! #AmericanFB pic.twitter.com/h6f4GkrZDW

— American Football (@American_FB) December 30, 2018

The Cincinnati Bearcats’ 10-2 record has taken its share of criticism due to a light schedule. The American Athletic Conference is tough, but Cincy only played a handful of bowl-worthy opponents, and lost to UCF by 25 points.

But it’s the blow-out victories that earned Cincinnati the reputation as a reliable wager. The Bearcats are 7-5 against the point spread, and have kept multiple teams out of the end zone altogether.

While the defense deserves much of the praise it has gotten, most of the unit’s impressive performances have been against struggling attacks. Powerful senior DT Cortez Broughton had double-digit tackles against Navy in a 42-0 whooping, but the Midshipmen were in midst of their worst season in a while. Defensive back James Wiggins intercepted Wilton Speight in the season-opening 26-17 victory over UCLA, but Chip Kelly’s team was in the middle of a brutal transition, and Speight is not among the top 50 quarterbacks in the FBS.

Cincy’s offense could be as undervalued as the D is overvalued, having gotten it done whenever the squad needed a spark. During a 34-30 win over the Ohio Bobcats, QB Desmond Ridder passed for almost 300 yards and ran for a key touchdown as the Bearcats out-scored Frank Solich’s team 27-6 in the 2^nd half.

Ridder finished the regular season with a 62.5 completion mark and helped cultivate talented WRs like Kahlil Lewis. A dual-threat signal-caller in an conference full of them, Ridder has galloped for over 500 yards in 12 games, providing a crucial decoy for 1000-yard tailback Michael Warren II. Cincinnati scored a combined 72 points against Tulane and South Florida, and put it all together in a 56-6 beat-down of ECU to cap off the regular season.

Handicapping the Military Bowl: Statistics vs Common Sense

Team statistics may be tricking Las Vegas on the Over/Under line.

Virginia Tech has had a prolific offense at times, even simply out of desperation whenever the defense let them down. Cincinnati has enjoyed mention as a top-ranked defense (statistically speaking) throughout much of the year. But when push came to shove the Bearcats played like just another quality roster from a high-scoring league.

The point total has been ticking upward, and it’s not just because recreational bettors are hoping to have a good nacho-crunching time cheering for points. The masses are on to something. Cincinnati has a more explosive offense than advertised and a less-dominant D than previously thought, while Virginia Tech can score points against an AAC defense but has also given up wild rallies against mid-major QBs.

Each team’s kicker has been up and down throughout the season, but that may simply inspire coaches to go for 4^th down conversions more often in a nothing-to-lose bowl game scenario.

Finally, while it might be chilly in Maryland on the 31st, meteorologists believe that the weather will be calm with the temperature well above freezing.

That adds up to a Military Bowl that could involve a few more fireworks than handicappers imagine. The best play is on the Over, and a 2 or 3-unit wager on 54+ points in Annapolis.