Could Team USA’s Roster Woes Lead to a FIBA Group Stage Shocker?

There are many angles on USA Basketball’s struggle to put a top-notch roster on the court for FIBA’s upcoming World Cup in China.

Oh, we can wax philosophical about what it really means to dominate international hoops in the 1^st place. That’s the tack a lot of journalists are taking, and I can’t really deny having joined the “ironic optimism” bandwagon myself, having written that at least now there’s no prohibitive Las Vegas favorite to make gold-medal futures betting into an academic exercise.

But that’s an insensitive POV, because somewhere in America right now there’s a teen baller surrounded by NBA posters and vintage Dream Team memorabilia that his Dad saved from the 1990s, and suddenly he’s confused to hear that Serbia or Spain might have the upper hand over the United States in a world basketball tourney.

Gregg Popovich’s task in trying to hold the USA squad together reminds me of head coaches and GMs who get sent to coach a North American team in the IIHF World Championships. But sometimes the Habs or Yanks do manage to send a really strong roster of NHLers to Europe, with captains like Sidney Crosby or Ryan O’ Reilly.

There are no such comparable sportsmen on the 12-man roster Popovich is steering in Shanghai – in fact, he’s probably just glad to get the team overseas where he can watch them, in case anyone decides to slip away in the middle of the night. Kyle Kuzma’s minor injury was enough to send the L.A. Lakers power forward packing from the Yanks, taking away another inside scoring threat on a squad already short of reliable big men and rebounders.

At least the USA won its exhibition follow-up against Canada.

Someone at ESPN also brought up the lack of a “bailout” factor, a word I’ve come to associate more with gambling on the final late-night game of a weekend. But on the hardwood a “bailout player” means a guy who can get hot and dominate the 2^nd half, bailing the squad out of a bad night.

Team USA ’19 doesn’t have a superstar like that – no LeBron or Stephen or Kyrie or James Harden. Not even a Russell Westbrook to win games while everyone complains about him.

So what does the United States have, other than a (-250) gold medal line at MyBookie that was miles-shorter in June? Popovich’s team retains a lot of talent in the backcourt, but I’m just as excited to see what Jayson Tatum and fellow forward Khris Middleton can do on the world stage as to see Kemba Walker shooting 3-pointers. 3-point shooting has gone dry for the USA in friendlies anyway.

The squad’s biggest problem is that the inside game hangs by a thread – an injury to a center like Myles Turner or Brook Lopez could leave the United States at a disadvantage on the boards, especially if Lopez’s teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece come calling in the medal round.

A group-stage wager on Team USA makes no sense because the payoff odds are still prohibitively short, and it’s anyone’s guess if the current 1-to-2.5 bets on a FIBA 3-peat will pay off.

But is there an underdog’s line that makes sense to consider in Group E instead?

Let’s look closer at the trio facing the Americans in Shanghai.

Turkey ((+1200 Odds-to-Win Group E at MyBookie)

Turkey has not qualified for the Olympics since 1952 when finishing 22nd overall. But like Latvia in ice hockey and several soccer nations I can think of, the team has floundered on the world’s biggest stages only to shine at other prestigious competitions, making FIBA into a playground.

Head coach Ufuk Sarıca is an institution among Turk basketball fans, helping the squad leave for China with a plane-load of confidence.

Philadelphia 76er shooting guard Furkan Korkmaz was a star of qualifiers, posting an average of 20.3 points and 4.3 rebounds. Veteran power forward Ersan İlyasova has bounced around the NBA and most recently played for Milwaukee in the postseason.

Cedi Osman of the Cleveland Cavaliers is a young talent who could dominate in Group E.

Remember that 2 teams, not 1, from each round-robin group will move on to the Round-of-16. That means it’s not unpatriotic to gamble on Turkey to sneak-up and win the 4-some at 12-to-1, especially since Osman’s talent makes the squad far and away the best option for an “actual” payoff line.

Czech Republic (+2500)

The Czechs debut at the FIBA Worlds boasting of notable success at the 2015 EuroBasket. Israeli coach Ronen Ginzburg leads the squad.

There won’t be an easy opener, though – the Czech Republic meets the United States on Sunday.

Versatile backcourt player Tomáš Satoranský is the star of the team, averaging 19 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in a pair of qualifiers. Primarily a point guard, the 27-year-old standout spent the 2018-2019 regular season with the Washington Wizards.

Japan (+10000)

Argentinian coach Julio Lamas brings his wealth of experience to an upstart Japanese squad.

2019 NBA Draft selection Rui Hachimura will get an opportunity to showcase his talents on the world stage. The 21-year-old forward averaged 19.7 points and 6.5 rebounds during his final season with the Gonzaga Bulldogs and was selected by the Wizards with the 9^th-overall pick.

Japan should make an excellent ATS or underdog-ML pick against the Czechs on Tuesday 9/3.