Current NFC Playoff Picture After Week 15 Action

This is the NFC Playoff Picture. Here is a link to the AFC Playoff Picture.

It’s one of my favorite times of the sports year. The short 16-game sprint that is the NFL season produces so many possible endings come Weeks 16 and 17.

Chew on this … there are 32 games remaining on the schedule with 2 possible outcomes for each (win or loss). Take the number 2 and raise it to the 32nd power. What do you get? 4,294,967,296 … that’s a little over 4 billion – which is the number of possible endings to the 2020 NFL season.

6 teams have already punched their tickets to the tournament. An additional 15 are still fighting for the right to continue playing after Week 17. The other 11 teams can’t make the playoffs but are still fighting for draft order, roster spots for next year, or simply to play spoiler in your rival’s season.

These final 2 weeks are going to be nuts. The “experts” don’t know what’s going to happen. You and I don’t know, either. All we have is the percentages and our educated guesses.

All NFL seasons are unpredictable – and 2020 is no exception. Take the Bears, for instance. Chicago started off like gangbusters – storming out of the gate to a 5-1 record and taking early control of both the NFC North and the conference.

6 weeks later, Chicago is face-down at the bottom of a slippery slope, now 5-7, suffering through losses to the lowly Vikings and – even worse – the Lions.

After 2 resilient victories, the Bears are now in the 8th spot in the NFC at 7-7 and are ready to pounce should Kyler and the Cards stumble down the stretch.

Has this been a good season or a bad one for the Bears? Depends on who you ask, I guess. I’m glad I’m a Lions fan this year instead of a Chicagoan. At least in Detroit, we knew we were out of it right away. The hearts of Chicago fans probably can’t take much more after this rollercoaster ride.

Of course, we can’t talk NFC playoff races without mentioning the chaos in the NFC East. Here is a snapshot of the East standings following Week 6 … try not to laugh.

Look at this. 2-4 is leading the division! Do you realize that at this time there were other divisions around football in which all 4 teams would be leading the East?!

I heard someone joke that the Lions should offer the Giants our best player (Matt Stafford) for the right to switch divisions with them immediately.

Sadly, one of these teams is going to win the East, get the 4 seed, host a playoff game, and have a worse record than teams who were snubbed out of the postseason.

Obviously, more on this fiasco later.

Let’s break down all of the NFC playoff races! First, a look at the current NFC standings:

NFC Playoff Picture

Green Bay Packers 11-3

Clinched NFC North

79% Chance of First-Round Bye

The Packers have controlled the NFC for a large portion of the season. Aaron Rodgers has distanced himself as a legitimate MVP candidate.

Green Bay is one win away from clinching the 1 seed in the NFC and getting that extra week of rest while everyone else is playing ultra-stressful playoff games.

Rodgers and the Packers are no strangers to deep postseason runs. Last year – 2019 – Green Bay advanced all the way to the NFC title game where they were cut down by the 49ers. The last time the Packers were in the postseason – 2016 – they also sliced through to the NFC title game where they lost to Atlanta.

Aaron Rodgers earned his only Super Bowl ring back in 2010 when his Packers finished 10-6, nabbed a Wild Card bid, and then ran the table to take down the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.

What Needs to Happen for Green Bay to Clinch 1 Seed

Packers win out

• Green Bay controls their own destiny for the top seed in the NFC

OR

Packers lose to Titans but beat Bears in Week 17

• Losing the non-conference game in Week 16 against Tennessee does not hurt Green Bay much. They are still one win away from clinching the top seed – the Chicago game is all they need.

OR

Packers lose out AND Saints lose at least 1 of their remaining games AND Seahawks lose at least 1 of their remaining games AND Rams lose at least 1 of their remaining games

• There is still one super-obscure scenario in which each of these things happens and the Buccaneers still beat Green Bay in a complicated multi-step tiebreaker. If these criteria are met, Green Bay is a 99% favorite to claim the 1 seed and the first-round bye

New Orleans Saints 10-4

Clinched Wild Card Berth

98% Chance to Win NFC South

15% Chance of First-Round Bye

The Saints seem to be a 2nd-tier team trying desperately to break into that upper echelon. The Saints have lost to the Raiders, Packers, Eagles, and Chiefs.

New Orleans was clearly a step behind the Packers and Chiefs. No shame there – most teams are. That Raiders’ loss is a bit more difficult to explain.

The hardest one to accept for those in the Bayou is how rookie QB Jalen Hurts exposed New Orleans’ normally-solid defense for over 100 yards rushing and an efficient day through the air.

The Saints have now lost 2 straight and have some soul-searching to do before the real games begin in January.

The Saints have a history of premature exits from the postseason when so much was expected of them. For this reason (and the 2 straight losses this late in the year), it is difficult to put much stock in the Saints’ chances of a deep postseason run.

What Needs to Happen for New Orleans to Clinch 1 Seed

Saints win out AND Packers lose out

• This is the most straightforward scenario that sees New Orleans sitting atop the NFC at seasons’ end. New Orleans would finish 12-4 while Green Bay would be 11-5

Saints win out AND Packers lose to Bears in Week 17 AND Seahawks win out

• This scenario would create a 3-way tie atop the NFC between the Saints, Packers, and Seahawks. The trio would all be 12-4 and the tiebreaker would go to New Orleans – giving them the 1 seed and the first-round bye

What Needs to Happen for New Orleans to Clinch NFC South

Saints win 1 more game OR Saints tie both of their remaining games OR Buccaneers lose 1 of their remaining games OR Buccaneers tie both of their remaining games

• Look past the ties – those are very unlikely to happen. The Saints have a Magic Number of 1, meaning the combined number of Saints wins and Bucs losses need to reach 1 for New Orleans to clinch the division

Seattle Seahawks 10-4

Clinched Wild Card Berth

65% Chance to Win NFC West

4% Chance of First-Round Bye

The Seahawks are an enigma. The Hawks kicked off the year on a 5-0 run then dropped games to the Cardinals, Bills, and Rams.

Ok … so those are pretty good teams. No reason to panic, right? I agree, until Week 13 when the Seahawks hosted the struggling Giants in a “sure win” that turned into a 17-12 loss.

So now Seattle is 10-4 with some losses to good teams and a horrible home loss. I’m not sure what to think. Russell Wilson was an early-season MVP-candidate but has since looked horrible in some of his games.

Here’s the good news. Wilson is one of the best bets in the NFL come January. The Seahawks have appeared in the postseason in 8 of the past 9 years (including 2020 because they’ve already clinched).

Wilson has 1 ring and was one play away from a 2nd. The dude is a legend. Pete Carroll is a pretty good coach, too. If you ask me, Seattle is in fine shape.

What Needs to Happen for Seattle to Clinch 1 Seed

Seahawks win out AND the Packers lose to Chicago in Week 17 AND the Saints lose 1 of their remaining games

• This scenario becomes more likely if Chicago still has something to play for in Week 17. The Saints finish with Minnesota and Carolina – not exactly a who’s who of NFL teams. Seattle finishes with the Rams and 49ers – so winning out will be easier said than done. There is a reason Seattle only has a 4% chance to pull this off.

What Needs to Happen for Seattle to Clinch NFC West

Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 16

OR

Seahawks and Rams each win 1 of their last 2

Los Angeles Rams 9-5

98% Chance of Playoff Berth

35% Chance to Win NFC West

1% Chance of First-Round Bye

What Needs to Happen for Los Angeles to Clinch 1 Seed

Rams win out AND Packers lose out AND Saints lose 1 of their remaining games

• This scenario is extremely unlikely to happen because Los Angeles plays Seattle and Arizona in their last 2 – so winning out will be extremely difficult. Green Bay plays Tennessee and Chicago in their last 2. Even though those teams are decent, it is extremely unlikely that Aaron Rodgers drops his last 2 games heading into the postseason. On top of all this, the Saints must lose to either Minnesota or Carolina – both are bad teams.

What Needs to Happen for Los Angeles to Clinch NFC West

Rams win out

OR

Rams beat Seahawks in Week 16 AND Seahawks lose in Week 17

• Because the Rams play Seattle, each team controls their own destiny for the division. The Seahawks are currently 1 game ahead of LA, meaning the Rams must gain a game over the last 2 in order to win the division.

What Needs to Happen for Los Angeles to Clinch Playoff Berth

Rams win 1 of their remaining games

OR

The Bears lose 1 of their remaining games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5

99% Chance of Playoff Berth

2% Chance to Win NFC South

<1% Chance of First-Round Bye

What Needs to Happen for Tampa Bay to Clinch 1 Seed

Buccaneers win out AND Saints lose out AND Packers lose out AND Seahawks lose out AND Rams lose to Arizona in Week 17

• Pretty unlikely … hence the less than 1% chance from FiveThirtyEight.

What Needs to Happen for Tampa Bay to Clinch NFC South

Buccaneers win out AND Saints lose out

• Although this scenario is very simple, it is extremely unlikely (2%). Tampa finishes with Detroit and Atlanta – winning out is not out of the question. New Orleans needs to lose out, however, and they finish with Minnesota and Carolina – a couple of weak opponents.

What Needs to Happen for Tampa Bay to Clinch Playoff Berth

Buccaneers win or tie at least 1 of their remaining games

• All Tampa needs to do is not lose out and they clinch a spot in the tournament

OR

Bears lose or tie one of their remaining games

• If Chicago wins out and Tampa loses out, the Bucs’ fate is then in the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. All Arizona would need to do is win 1 of their remaining 2 games to claim a playoff spot and send Tom Brady home early

Arizona Cardinals 8-6

70% Chance of Wild Card Berth

No Chance to Win Division or Earn Bye

What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Clinch Playoff Berth

Cardinals win out

• Arizona finishes with the 49ers and the Rams – a couple of tough games

OR

Cardinals win 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Bears lose 1 of their remaining 2 games

• This is the most likely scenario. The Bears will probably beat Jacksonville but are likely to lose to Green Bay in Week 17. Green Bay will almost certainly be taking this game seriously because a win would earn them the first-round bye.

OR

Cardinals lose out AND Bears lose out AND Vikings don’t win out

• Even with 2 losses to finish the year, Arizona would still have a chance to back into the 7th seed. If Chicago loses to both Jacksonville and Green Bay, Arizona’s fate would be in Kirk Cousins’ hands. The Vikings could win their final 2 games (Saints and Lions) to leapfrog the Cardinals. Any other result would keep Arizona steady at 7.

Chicago Bears 7-7

31% Chance of Wild Card Berth

No Chance to Win Division or Earn Bye

What Needs to Happen for Chicago to Clinch Playoff Berth

Bears win out AND Cardinals lose 1 of their remaining 2 games

• Chicago is in a precarious situation – they do not control their own destiny. Winning out (vs Jacksonville and Green Bay) is not enough. The Bears would still need help.

OR

Bears win 1 of their remaining 2 games AND Cardinals lose out AND Vikings lose 1 of their remaining 2 games

• The Bears need to win at least 1 more game to have a shot. Losing out would eliminate Chicago. The Bears need to gain at least 1 game on Arizona while still holding off the charging Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings 6-8

2% Chance of Wild Card Berth

No Chance to Win Division or Earn Bye

What Needs to Happen for Minnesota to Clinch Playoff Berth

Vikings win out AND Cardinals lose out AND Bears lose 1 of their remaining 2 games

• This scenario is highly improbable, especially considering the Vikings were 1-5 to begin the 2020 season. The Vikings finish with the Saints and Lions. Minnesota needs to win both of these games. The Cardinals finish with the 49ers and Rams. Minnesota needs Arizona to drop both. The Bears would then need to lose to either Jacksonville (not likely) or Green Bay (pretty likely, considering Green Bay might be playing for a first-round bye).

Sorting Out the NFC East Mess

The most intriguing story in the NFC this season is following which losing team out of the East will sneak into the 4 seed and host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend.

Preseason, everyone was picking Dallas to come out of the East. Once play began, we quickly realized that Dallas was much better on paper than they were on the field.

For the early portion of the season, it seemed we were going to see a 5 or 6-game division winner in the East. Washington and New York were a combined 2-10 through 6 weeks and Dallas wasn’t much better at 2-4. The Cowboys eventually fell to 2-7. Philly was 1-4-1 before improving to 3-4-1.

Then a switch was flipped. Washington started playing great football – improving to 6-7. The Giants kept pace – getting their record to 5-8.

Even the Cowboys have picked up their play – winning in weeks 14 and 15 to get their record from 3-9 to 5-9.

Take a look at the NFC East standings following Week 15 – all 4 teams still have a shot at the playoffs.

With 4 teams still alive for the division, let’s take a look at the scenarios that would see each team grabbing the 4 seed in the NFC.

Washington Re*****s (Football Team) 6-8

75% Chance to Win NFC East

What Needs to Happen for Washington to Clinch NFC East

Washington wins out OR has 1 win and 1 tie

• The Re*****s control their own destiny in the East. It’s actually even a little easier than that. They don’t even need 2 wins – just 1 win and 1 tie to clinch.

OR

Washington wins 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Giants don’t win out

• This is why Washington is a 75% favorite to win the division. Just 1 more victory gives Washington a 90% chance of winning the division. The only team that could catch a 7-9 Washington would be New York. The Giants could tie the Re*****s with wins against Baltimore and Dallas. It is not likely New York wins both of these games. Washington’s lead seems pretty safe.

New York Giants 5-9

10% Chance to Win NFC East

What Needs to Happen for New York to Clinch NFC East

Giants win out AND Washington loses at least 1 of their remaining games

• It is unlikely New York wins out. They finish with Baltimore and Dallas. Those will be 2 tough games.

OR

Giants win 1 of their remaining games AND Washington loses out AND Eagles lose to Dallas in Week 16

• This scenario is more likely because New York doesn’t have to beat Baltimore and Dallas – only one or the other. Washington would need to lose to both Carolina and Philadelphia in this scenario – which is itself unlikely. Either way, New York is not in good shape … hence the 10% chance.

Philadelphia Eagles 4-9-1

9% Chance to Win NFC East

What Needs to Happen for Philadelphia to Clinch NFC East

Eagles win out AND Washington loses to Carolina in Week 16 AND the Giants lose 1 of their remaining 2 games

• The Eagles are in tough shape here. They must beat both the Cowboys and Re*****s while hoping Washington loses to Carolina in Week 16. On top of this, the Giants need to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys 5-9

5% Chance to Win NFC East

What Needs to Happen for Dallas to Clinch NFC East

Cowboys win out AND Washington loses out

• Although this scenario is straightforward, it is not likely to occur. The Cowboys would need to beat both the Giants and Eagles. This will be tough considering Dallas has struggled against divisional opponents this year. Dallas would then need Washington to lose to both Carolina and Philly – neither of which are particularly good teams.