Welcome to WagerBop’s Daily Double! Our hardball blog includes picks and analysis for at least 2 Major League Baseball games every day, updated daily with predictions on 2023 MLB moneylines, totals, and runlines.
2023 MLB Best Bets on Thursday, June 1st
Daily Top Moneyline Plays: Colorado Rockies (+150) & Cincinnati Reds (+145)
Daily Double Moneyline 2023 Record: Profit +0.7u / 43-41 / Avg Odds (-102)
The following link is for our spreadsheet which tracks the daily moneyline play(s) of the day all season long. We always have at least 1 moneyline pick per day, sometimes 2. Note that alternative picks (NRFI, runlines, player props, team totals) will not be tracked on our moneyline play tracker.
Daily Double Moneyline Play Tracker
The Astros bitterly disappointed us yesterday, but that’s okay.
Why We Like The Rockies: We love this play as our MLB Betting System is saying Colorado has major value this afternoon. Sure, the Rockies have lost the first 3 games to Arizona in this 4-game set, but why can’t they salvage a win today on getaway day?
The active system we’re betting into here is road dogs who lost their last time out playing winning teams. This system has produced an ROI in the neighborhood of 5% over the past 2 decades.
In addition to being a hot system play, the Rockies are a high-upside option right now given their hitters are top-10 in wOBA over the past 2 weeks. The pitching? Not so great, but today’s starter – Connor Seabold – is throwing as good or better than Arizona’s Zach Davies right now.
We ain’t facin’ Gallen or Kelly today. Zach Davies returned from injury before his last start and got rocked by the Red Sox – lasting just 3.1 innings. He was not good before his oblique injury, either.
Why We Like The Reds: We’re double dipping in this Reds-Red Sox series – electing to take the plus money with Cincinnati for the 2nd time in 3 days.
We’re getting (+145) today with Hunter Greene on the mound versus Boston starter Chris Sale. Greene possesses the potential to dominate but has yet to learn how to win at the Major League level. Here’s to hoping that changes today.
Greene’s WHIP is 1.38 and his ERA is 4.18. Considering Great American Ball Park is a hitter’s haven, those numbers aren’t that bad. Through 56 innings this year, Greene has recorded 80 strikeouts. That’s his strength. He’ll walk his fair share of hitters, but can absolutely slice through a lineup when on.
The interesting aspect of today’s matchup is that Boston ranks 6th in the big leagues in K% – meaning they don’t get themselves out all that often. Something has to give. However, Boston has shown a propensity to be beat by great pitchers.
Only twice this season have the Red Sox struck out 14+ times as a team. Once was against Merrill Kelly (stud) and the other against Sonny Gray (stud). Hunter Greene is certainly a stud. Let’s take the plus money and the momentum and let it ride!
Major League Baseball in the 2020s: Tip for Making MLB Predictions
Oakland’s iconic “moneyball” team of 2001 won 20 ball games in a row by getting runners on base at a maximum rate with a minimum number of outs, and minimizing every opponent’s number of base-runners while maximizing put-outs in the field.
The fireworks of 2020 are not that different from the small-ball of 2001. Managers and batting coaches have realized that long fly balls do not lead to double and triple plays in the infield. Since batters are more trained to hit for power than ever before, they’re being allowed to swing for the fences and put the ball high in the air as a new means of “minimizing outs” and protecting a lineup’s chances for RBIs.
Meanwhile, more runs are produced by improving the team’s slugging %. Original “moneyball” style teams hoped to advance runners to 2nd and 3rd base at all costs, but modern clubs with big, strong batters only need a runner on 1st base to drive in multiple runs on the next at-bat. Extra-base hits place new runners in scoring position even while driving-in players who weren’t in traditional “scoring” position on the diamond, making it easier for the back-end of a batting order to “clean up” in its own way by producing RBIs with base hits or sacrifices once the meat of the lineup has done its damage.
The trend of power-hitting offense is leading to feast-or-famine run totals. When hard-slugging MLB teams struggle to fill 1st base, the inevitable home runs are only worth 1 run at a time, and tremendous upsets become possible.
In August 2019, Houston was a 1-to-5 Sin City favorite to beat the awful Baltimore Orioles. 10 days later the Astros were handicapped as a 1-to-6 favorite headed into a home game against the pitiful Detroit Tigers. But the ‘Stros lost both games, and so did gamblers who risked picking the favorites at high prices. The AL front-runners were so desperate for extra base-hits by the end of the 2nd monumental-upset loss that Houston’s Robinson Chrinos tried to stretch a double into a triple, and his mistake clinched a Tiger win.
Look-out for MLB underdogs vs favorites who are struggling in OBP. Home runs are spectacular to watch, but no more valuable than a squeeze play…unless someone’s on base.
MLB Betting and Fantasy Baseball FAQ
Where Can I Find MLB Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
To find Major League Baseball odds at FanDuel, simply click “MLB” on the upper left-hand menu of the FanDuel Sportsbook homepage. Or, if you’re looking for expanded odds and prop bets along with occasional markets on Korea, Japan, and the Olympic Games, click “baseball” anytime year-round on the scrollable menu to the left of the odds display.
How Can I Learn the Rules of Fantasy Baseball?
Check out FanDuel’s step-by-step tutorial on being a Fantasy MLB GM. Or, read our MLB Fantasy blog for in-depth tips, strategy, and draft guides.
How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Major League Baseball?
COVID-19 forced the shutdown of MLB competition until summer of 2020, when the National League, American League, and MLBPA agreed to hold a 60-game shortened season, followed by an expanded playoff bracket leading to the World Series. Many players opted-out prior to the season getting underway. Major League Baseball’s attempt at a full calendar of games in 2021 has been met with setbacks, such as COVID-safety cancellations and postponements. Attendance at games is on the rise, however, and conditions (and schedules) are expected to slowly return to normal throughout the current decade.
What is a Run Line?
Point spreads in most sports are handicapped with a moving “number,” or number of goals or points, shifted to keep the betting odds around (Even) or 1-to-1 risk and reward. Baseball and hockey odds differ in that the favored team always “gives” (-1.5) against the spread.
An MLB Run Line on a team to “cover the spread” of (-1.5) or (+1.5) can be offered at (Even) or (-110) payout, but more often comes with odds as variable as (-300) or (+250), due to the relative strength and weakness of the clubs contesting a ballgame, or because of a perceived pitching mismatch that gives even an inferior team a leg-up on a given day.
Is it Legal to Bet on Baseball Where I Live?
Possibly no, but more likely “yes” all the time! FanDuel is proud to be at the forefront of sports-betting legalization in the United States. Check our state-by-state legal sports betting map as state and local legislatures make progress toward gambling reform.
Understanding MLB Betting Markets
Moneyline – A moneyline is a wager on which Major League Baseball team will win the game outright. Moneylines are listed in fractions relating to a $100 amount – to win $100 on a favorite you must gamble the number next to the “-“ symbol, while a $100 wager on the underdog will pay off with the amount next to the “+” symbol.
Run Line – This is the traditional MLB “point spread” always set at (+/- 1.5) runs. We will rarely make Run Line picks on the Daily Double, but have included one with our Wednesday launch of the blog just for aficionados of a time-honored betting market.
Total Runs – Occasionally we’ll make a pick on the “Over/Under” or “total runs” market for a ballgame, a proposition on whether more or less runs than the Vegas number will be scored by both MLB clubs combined in a given contest.
To learn more about these daily hardball betting markets (and how to play them successfully) visit WagerBop’s MLB betting strategy portal.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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