Do Big Numbers in April and May Mean Anything?

It’s June! More than one-third of the 2019 MLB season is history. Do we know who will win the World Series? Who will take home MVP? Cy Young? Of course not.

Certain things are safe to assume at the beginning of June, but most of what lies ahead is still murky in our crystal balls. What is safe to assume at this point and what isn’t?

Before I draw any conclusions about the final 4 months of the season, I first need to see how predictive results from April and May have been.

Stat leaders – can we expect the leaders in AVG, HR, ERA, WHIP, etc. on June 1 to lead those categories at the end of the year?

For example, Christian Yelich is currently leading the majors in home runs with 22. Can we crown him the home run king already or should we hold off on engraving that trophy for a few more weeks?

To answer this, I’m going to dive back through the past 10 seasons of data to find how often the leaders in the fantasy baseball categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S) hold their June 1 leads.

I chose to look at 10 seasons because I feel that gives us a large enough sample size to where the data means something but isn’t mixing results from different eras of baseball.

Before I even do any research, my guess is that these leaderboards probably change a lot throughout the season and that we should not put any clout in how they look on June 1 … but that is why I look up the stats.

Let’s see what the numbers say. Maybe I’ll be dead wrong and Christian Yelich should start clearing room in his trophy case for a second MVP.

April and May Batting Average Leaders

I am looking at batting average first not only because it is almost always the first hitting stat listed when talking numbers but also because can be extreme fluctuation week-to-week, day-to-day, even at-bat-to-at-bat..

Through 2 months of the 2019 season, most full-time hitters are hovering around 200 at-bats. Batting average is a simple ratio – hits divided by at-bats. The fewer at-bats you have, the more your average fluctuates with each result.

With only 200 at-bats, your average is going to move a couple of points each time you step into the box. This means you can knock 6 or 8 points off your average with a bad game in early June or boost it way up with a few hits.

Hitters can drop from .340 to .310 with one bad week in early June and watch themselves plummet down the slippery slope of the batting average leaderboard.

This might be my confirmation bias talking, but it feels like almost every year I find myself realizing that someone who was a top-5 hitter pre-All-Star break finished hitting in the .270s.

I could simply tell you how often the Major League’s batting average leader on June 1 holds on throughout the entire season, but it’d be more fun to show you the names. It was a blast researching these players (for all of the stats, not just batting average). It has only been 10 years, but it’s amazing how many of these guys I forgot about.

Here are the June 1 leaders and end of season leaders in batting average each year since 2009.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	C. Bellinger (.376)	—
2018	M. Betts (.359)	M. Betts (.346)
2017	R. Zimmerman (.368)	J. Altuve (.346)
2016	D. Murphy (.397)	D. LeMahieu (.348)
2015	D. Gordon (.377)	Mi. Cabrera (.338)
2014	T. Tulowitzki (.352)	J. Altuve (.341)
2013	Mi. Cabrera (.372)	Mi. Cabrera (.348)
2012	P. Konerko (.381)	B. Posey (.336)
2011	M. Joyce (.370)	Mi. Cabrera (.344)
2010	J. Morneau (.377)	J. Hamilton (.359)
2009	J. Bartlett (.373)	J. Mauer (.365)

As you can see, only twice in the past 10 years did the Major League batting leader on June 1 wind up wearing the crown.

As I expected, the league-high batting average on June 1 was higher than the final league-high average every single time. It is much easier to hit for a high average over a smaller sample size.

Will Cody Bellinger win the batting title? Ehh doubtful. Nothing against him. The numbers do not back him up. I also highly doubt Bellinger will continue hitting .376. The last batting leader to hit that high was Larry Walker back in 1999. Only 3 players since 1980 have hit .376 or better for a season.

April and May Home Run Leaders

When I totaled up the home run numbers, I realized there were some ties atop the leaderboards. This makes sense. It is hard to gain a lot of separation in this category, even for the best power hitters.

I’ll sort out the ties at the end. Here’s what we got.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	C. Yelich (22)	—
2018	4 tied (18)	K. Davis (48)
2017	A. Judge (17)	G. Stanton (59)
2016	2 tied (16)	M. Trumbo (47)
2015	2 tied (18)	C. Davis (47)
2014	N. Cruz (20)	N. Cruz (40)
2013	C. Davis (19)	C. Davis (53)
2012	J. Hamilton (21)	Mi. Cabrera (44)
2011	J. Bautista (20)	J. Bautista (43)
2010	J. Bautista (16)	J. Bautista (54)
2009	A. Gonzalez (20)	A. Pujols (47)

Two notes. First, I think that having your name end with “ris Davis” is conducive to huge power numbers.

Second, reigning-NL-MVP Christian Yelich has hit more homers through the first two months than anyone else on our list. It’s not just Yelich exploding, though. Home runs are way up across baseball. Hitters just set a record for the most home runs in a month this past May.

I found home runs are the only of the 10 fantasy stats that are at an all-time high right now.

Now … what we came here for. How often did the player with the most dingers by June 1 remain on top? We first need to sort out the ties, but none of the players involved in those ties on June 1 went on to win so they don’t really matter.

4 players maintained their home run leads, twice as many players who were able to maintain their batting average leads. I have to say that this is totally expected. It is much harder to close a gap in a home run race than it is to narrow the gap in batting average.

Why? Well for one, your home run total cannot decrease like your batting average. When protecting a batting average lead, not only must you hope the guy below you doesn’t get hot, but you have to keep yourself hot or you will fall right down the board.

Second, there are far less hitters who can realistically compete for a home run crown than a batting title. You have less competition. If you are blessed with the ability to hit 40 home runs in a Major League season, you are in rare company.

The ability to hit .320 is also rare but is more common and also more prone to flukes. You hear about players getting flukey, bloop hits to drop but when is the last time you thought a hitter’s home run total was inflated because he was lucking into cheap home runs? If you are like me, never.

Home run leads are easier to maintain. Yelich hit 36 last year so he is no stranger to big power numbers. It is not crazy to think Yelich could do it again. Regardless of my optimism, the odds are not in Yelich’s favor.

April and May RBI Leaders

Long gone are the days in which players drive in upwards of 200 runs. You have to go all the way back to 1962 to find the last time a player who didn’t cheat drove in 150.

Josh Bell. The relatively unknown 26-year-old is not doing a good job of remaining unknown. He has unleashed his full potential in 2019, putting up a line of .343/18/52 through 2 months.

Compare this to his full-season 2018 line of .261/12/62 and you see why Bell may be baseball’s most improved hitter. I mean, you gotta give Bell some props, he has the most RBIs through May of any hitter since thee Miguel Cabrera in 2013.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	J. Bell (53)	—
2018	J. Martinez (47)	J. Martinez (130)
2017	C. Blackmon (46)	G. Stanton (132)
2016	D. Ortiz (47)	N. Arenado (133)
2015	G. Stanton (44)	N. Arenado (130)
2014	N. Cruz (52)	A. Gonzalez (116)
2013	Mi. Cabrera (61)	C. Davis (138)
2012	J. Hamilton (57)	Mi. Cabrera (139)
2011	A. Gonzalez (46)	M. Kemp (126)
2010	Mi. Cabrera (48)	Mi. Cabrera (126)
2009	E. Longoria (55)	2 tied (141)

Can Josh Bell make 2019 the 5th straight season in which the RBI leader drives in at least 130 runs? If Bell falters, Nolan Arenado and Cody Bellinger are hot on his heels.

So many times did the June 1 RBI leader hold on till the bitter end? Just twice in the past 10 years.

RBIs do not fluctuate like batting averages so holding an RBI lead is a bit easier in that respect. RBIs are far more common than home runs, though. There are bound to be higher highs and lower lows in the RBI game. That’s just how it is.

You can build an RBI lead far quicker than you can a home run lead but you are prone to give up the lead just as quickly.

April and May Runs Leaders

On to what some would label baseball’s most important stat – runs. If you can’t score you can’t win. Run-scorers may not receive the most love from the media and fans, but it sure is fun to watch a good hitter work his way on and then maneuver his way around the bases.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	T. Story (53)	—
2018	M. Betts (52)	2 tied (129)
2017	P. Goldschmidt (46)	C. Blackmon (137)
2016	M. Betts (49)	M. Trout (123)
2015	J. Donaldson (43)	J. Donaldson (122)
2014	J. Donaldson (48)	M. Trout (115)
2013	J. Votto (45)	M. Carpenter (126)
2012	C. Gonzalez (44)	M. Trout (129)
2011	J. Bautista (45)	C. Granderson (136)
2010	K. Youkilis (45)	A. Pujols (115)
2009	2 tied (43)	A. Pujols (124)

If you gave me 100 guesses as to who was currently leading the majors in runs, I probably would not have thought to guess Trevor Story.

Story has stayed out of the limelight since the breakout first-half of his rookie year, but it appears he has now embraced being a table-setter in the Rockies’ explosive offense. Story has scored more runs through May than any other player in the past 10 years … so yeah, he’s doing a pretty good job.

So how often did the top dawgs remain the top dawgs? Over the past 10 seasons, the runs leader on June 1 ended up on top just twice.

Runs are very similar to RBIs with one added caveat. Runs are less about the hitter and more about his team.

Remember how I explained that you will always have more competition for a batting title than you will a home run title? Runs are the ultimate free-for-all. You don’t even need to be a good hitter to score. It helps. It helps a lot, actually, but a great middle-of-the-order can inflate a tablesetter’s run figure right up onto the top of the leaderboard.

Competing for a runs title is very difficult because so many hitters are capable of it. It is generally understood that runs are the main-5 hitting stat a hitter has the least control over. For this reason, no one ever makes a big deal about who is leading the league in runs.

We know, though. It’s Trevor Story … for now.

April and May Steals Leaders

Steals. Quite possibly my favorite aspect of the game.

A stolen base can get in the pitcher’s head, get in the catcher’s head, demoralize an entire team, and improve your team’s scoring chances all in less than 4 seconds.

There is always a lot of turnover in the steals department because you need to be both very fast and very healthy to steal a huge number of bags in a season. Unfortunately, most players do not possess both of these traits for long.

A couple of young speedsters will set the league on fire for a couple of years and then drop off the face of the earth … cough … Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Villar.

The new faces of the stolen base happen to be the double play combination for the Royals – Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. Merrifield led the league last year with 45 swipes and Mondesi is on pace to surpass that number with 21 already through May.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	A. Mondesi (21)	—
2018	E. Inciarte (18)	W. Merrifield (45)
2017	B. Hamilton (28)	D. Gordon (60)
2016	J. Villar (19)	J. Villar (62)
2015	B. Hamilton (21)	D. Gordon (58)
2014	D. Gordon (34)	D. Gordon (64)
2013	J. Ellsbury (21)	J. Ellsbury (52)
2012	E. Bonafacio (20)	M. Trout (49)
2011	M. Bourn (20)	M. Bourn (61)
2010	R. Davis (22)	J. Pierre (68)
2009	C. Crawford (30)	J. Ellsbury (70)

The stolen base leader on June 1 held onto the crown in 4 of the past 10 seasons. Steals is a category where you will not find much competition at the top. Normally there are only 3 or 4 guys with a realistic chance of winning the steals crown each year.

Because speed does not go in slumps, many stolen base races are determined by who stayed healthiest throughout the year. I like Mondesi to keep his 6-base lead. The kid can run.

April and May ERA Leaders

Let’s not forget about those poor pitchers.

Dodger righty Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an excellent season after an injury-shortened 2018.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	H. Ryu (1.48)	—
2018	J. Verlander (1.11)	J. deGrom (1.70)
2017	E. Santana (1.75)	C. Kluber (2.25)
2016	C. Kershaw (1.56)	K. Hendricks (2.13)
2015	2 tied (1.48)	Z. Greinke (1.66)
2014	J. Samardzija (1.68)	C. Kershaw (1.77)
2013	P. Corbin (1.71)	C. Kershaw (1.83)
2012	B. Beachy (1.77)	C. Kershaw (2.53)
2011	J. Jurrjens (1.51)	C. Kershaw (2.28)
2010	U. Jimenez (0.78)	F. Hernandez (2.27)
2009	Z. Greinke (1.10)	Z. Greinke (2.16)

Just like with batting average, the end-of-year ERA leader is always worse than the June 1 leader was. That’s the power of regression.

If Ryu manages to keep this pace, he will finish with the lowest ERA since Bob Gibson in the Year of the Pitcher – 1968.

I would not count on Ryu shattering any records. As you can see from the table, 4 other pitchers in the past 10 seasons have had ERAs equal to or lower than Ryu’s at this point and were not able to maintain.

A whopping 2 players were able to hold their June 1 ERA leads over the past 10 years. One of the players tied in 2015 was Zack Greinke, who ended up winning.

Just like batting average, ERA is extremely volatile and “fluky”. You will have lots of competition toward the top. The most deserving pitcher may not always win the ERA crown. This is why xFIP exists.

April and May WHIP Leaders

Walks and hits per innings pitched – WHIP. If you do not allow baserunners as a pitcher, the offense is going have a difficult time putting runs on the board.

WHIP and ERA go hand-in-hand. If a pitcher has a high WHIP but a low ERA, he is getting lucky. It means he is working himself out of a lot of jams.

Justin Verlander is currently leading all pitchers in WHIP for the second-straight season.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	J. Verlander (0.74)	—
2018	J. Verlander (0.71)	J. Verlander (0.90)
2017	E. Santana (0.84)	C. Kluber (0.87)
2016	C. Kershaw (0.65)	M. Scherzer (0.97)
2015	Z. Greinke (0.87)	Z. Greinke (0.84)
2014	J. Cueto (0.76)	C. Kershaw (0.86)
2013	M. Harvey (0.82)	C. Kershaw (0.92)
2012	J. Verlander (0.89)	Jer. Weaver (1.02)
2011	J. Tomlin (0.90)	J. Verlander (0.92)
2010	U. Jimenez (0.90)	C. Lee (1.00)
2009	D. Haren (0.90)	D. Haren (1.00)

3 of the previous 10 June 1 WHIP leaders were able to maintain their positions atop the league.

You have a much lower chance of getting lucky with WHIP than you do with ERA. The WHIP crown is a better achievement than the ERA crown in my opinion, although it gets talked about less by the media.

April and May Strikeout Leaders

Strikeouts are to pitchers what home runs are to hitters – their ultimate goal of each at-bat.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	G. Cole (116)	—
2018	M. Scherzer (120)	M. Scherzer (300)
2017	C. Sale (110)	C. Sale (308)
2016	C. Kershaw (105)	M. Scherzer (284)
2015	C. Kluber (96)	C. Kershaw (301)
2014	C. Kluber (95)	D. Price (271)
2013	Y. Darvish (105)	Y. Darvish (277)
2012	J. Verlander (82)	J. Verlander (239)
2011	R. Halladay (91)	J. Verlander (250)
2010	T. Lincecum (83)	Jer. Weaver (233)
2009	J. Verlander (90)	J. Verlander (269)

5 times in the past 10 years did the June 1 K leader hold on till the end of September. I think that strikeouts are the most predictive stat of the 10 we discuss today.

Very few pitchers are capable of legitimately competing for the strikeout crown. Deficits are also difficult to overcome because it is tough to gain ground. If an ace has a normal start, he might strike out 7 or 8 batters. If you have an awesome start you might K 12 or 13. You only gain a few.

Although Gerrit Cole does hold a slim lead, I like Max Scherzer to repeat as King of the K.

April and May Wins Leaders

I dislike discussing the records of pitchers. I do not feel that a pitcher’s record is a good indication of how well he is pitching. Just like runs with hitters, wins and losses depend so much on your teammates. Just look at Jacob deGrom in 2018.

Regardless of what I think, wins are still praised by the media. Wins gifted Rick Porcello the Cy Young in 2016. Wins also still count for points in fantasy baseball, so let’s see what’s up.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	D. German (9)	—
2018	M. Scherzer (9)	B. Snell (21)
2017	D. Keuchel (8)	4 tied (18)
2016	3 tied (9)	R. Porcello (22)
2015	2 tied (8)	J. Arrieta (22)
2014	M. Buehrle (9)	C. Kershaw (21)
2013	4 tied (8)	M. Scherzer (21)
2012	2 tied (8)	G. Gonzalez (21)
2011	7 tied (7)	J. Verlander (24)
2010	U. Jimenez (10)	2 tied (21)
2009	2 tied (8)	4 tied (19)

Not once over the past 10 seasons was the pitcher with the most wins on June 1 and the pitcher with the most wins at the end of the season the same person.

Sorry Domingo German. You are off to a great start but history almost guarantees that you will not win the most games in the majors this year.

April and May Saves Leaders

And finally, the thorn in the side of fantasy owners and MLB managers alike – saves.

Saves are, by far, the most difficult of the 10 fantasy stats to predict. In order for a save to occur, your team must create a save opportunity.

You can be a perfect pitcher and still wind up with low saves numbers simply because your team is either too good (they always win by a lot) or too bad to create ample save opportunities.

Because saves really do not have that much to do with the closer, there is always a high turnover in the saves leaderboards from year-to-year.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2019	K. Yates (22)	—
2018	E. Diaz (19)	E. Diaz (57)
2017	G. Holland (19)	A. Colome (47)
2016	2 tied (17)	J. Familia (51)
2015	G. Perkins (19)	M. Melancon (51)
2014	3 tied (17)	F. Rodney (48)
2013	J. Grilli (22)	2 tied (50)
2012	C. Perez (17)	J. Johnson (51)
2011	J. Oviedo (19)	J. Valverde (49)
2010	M. Capps (17)	B. Wilson (48)
2009	H. Bell (15)	B. Fuentes (48)

Only twice over the past 10 seasons has the June 1 saves leader successfully closed the most games come the end of September.

Kirby Yates is doing an awesome job closing games for San Diego, but so much of a closer’s success rides on his team’s performance that there is absolutely zero guarantee he sustains this success.

Today we learned there are a few stats in which we can be impressed by good starts, but most stats we cannot due to regression.