Early Season CFB Betting Guide

Some college football bettors like to wait until conference play begins to start betting games. Why would we do that? If we can be making money right now, why aren’t we?

Many early-season games are lopsided affairs in which a powerhouse tunes up against a much weaker opponent. While it is true that the large favorites win nearly all of these games, their record against the spread is a different story.

Huge Home Favorites May Let You Down

I decided to look at how ranked opponents fared at home early in the season against non-ranked, non-conference opponents. What I found was not pretty.

If you frequently bet point spreads, you know that 52.4% is the break even point with -110 odds. Looking at the numbers since 2010, we see that these large favorites have been profitable against the spread just once (2013) in this 9-year window.

Year	Record ATS	Win %
2018*	12-13-1	48%
2017	16-21-3	43.2%
2016	16-25-1	39%
2015	19-24	44.2%
2014	22-20-1	52.4%
2013	26-19	57.8%
2012	22-29	43.1%
2011	19-27	41.3%
2010	23-22	51.1%

* through first two weeks of 2018 season

So what should we do with this information? For starters, we should not be blindly betting large favorites. The big underdogs actually have the upper hand against the spread.

We cannot blindly bet the underdogs either, but we can handicap in a manner that gives the benefit of the doubt to the dog. Allow me to explain.

Say that you are considering betting a hypothetical early-season matchup between #12 Miami and the unranked South Florida Bulls. The spread leans heavily in Miami’s favor at -28.5.

You are looking through the numbers and really like how USF’s physical receivers and tight ends match up against Miami’s subpar linebacking corps. You believe that USF will be able to move the ball in this game and sustain drives.

You already have reason to like USF’s chances of keeping it close, but when you add the fact that large underdogs do pretty well in this situation, you have even more reason to take the +28.5 on the Bulls.

If the situation were reversed and large favorites covered the spread more often than not, you would be hesitant to back USF and go against the trend.

Even Smaller Home Favorites Can Let You Down

Being a profitable sports bettor is all about placing educated bets and not allowing your intuition to cause you to defy the historical data.

It turns out that it is never a good time to bet early-season ranked home favorites, as they are 3-7 ATS over the past 4 years against other ranked opponents.

Why is this? I think it takes college players a bit longer to get into peak form than it does pro players. The best teams are not quite firing on all cylinders early in the year and have yet to gain that edge that puts them over the top.

When I am betting early season college football games, I always keep in mind that underdogs have the slight advantage against the spread. There is an increasing amount of parity in college football these days and we can adjust before the books do.

When handicapping, I am looking for a reason to bet the underdog as I know they are getting the benefit of the doubt anyway. Use this information to help you in the coming weeks to build a solid bankroll that will carry you well into the fall.