Except for 2 sets of long-shot odds on Chelsea F.C. and Crystal Palace, WagerBop enjoyed a nearly perfect record on Premier League picks last weekend. While gambling a unit on long odds is an acceptable move when winning at the sportsbook, investing in a soccer futures market is another way to take advantage of winning Saturday bets and long-odds offers.
Placing a bet on a single club to win a championship is an all-or-nothing proposition (take for example Monday’s recommended 5-to-1 moneyline on Crystal Palace that came within minutes of paying off). Placing money on multiple EPL futures odds, however, gives FanDuel clients an “army” of teams that could each win and pay-off in a huge way.
The payoff odds for Manchester City to win the English premier League in 2022 are so short that the team does not work well as a long-term wager. In fact, Sky Blues could pay off championship futures bets without giving clients any more of a cash reward than a typical NFL favorite who wins a single game on Sunday. Chelsea isn’t very promising either at 2/1 odds to lift EPL hardware in spring, however there are at least 2 UEFA stalwarts in Liverpool and Man United that have high enough payoff odds that punters can consider for the long-term.
There are various reasons why Liverpool stands at 4-to-1 odds. Reds are off to a terrific start in 3 separate competitions, played Man City to a 2-2 Premier League draw on October 3rd, and have not lost a domestic-league match since early March of 2021. Liverpool’s backline was questioned following a 3-3 draw with Brentford as left-back Andy Robertnon’s yellow card underlined the club’s frustrations trying to clear out vs pedestrian talent. However, that chatter is starting to dissipate as Reds conquer the UEFA Group Stage with few dangerous shots-on-target from opponents.
That being said, the team’s supporters are concerned by Mohamed Salah’s contract demands, especially given a landscape in which strikers are known to move.
Yes, it is true that strikers transfer, but does that angle “strike” anyone as overrated? Ronaldo, despite being the world’s foremost shot-artist of The Beautiful Game, has failed to make a significant impact on United’s quality on the attack.
Red Devils fell apart on the back line in a 4-2 loss to Leicester City on Saturday. Midfielders were caught flat-footed on nearly every Leicester counter attempt, adding to a ghastly total of 17 fouls. Ronaldo hasn’t scored in a Premier League match since mid-September, causing even the “recreational” betting punters at FanDuel Sportsbook to pass-up on the 34-to-1 odds currently posted for Man United.
Upcoming Match Odds and Lines for the English Premier League
Match Odds and Picks for the EPL on Matchday 9
10/22: Arsenal vs Aston Villa
The most “undeserved” short soccer odds tend to be given to legacy teams and overhyped clubs. Occasionally, however, a humble Premier League side is overrated at the betting board too, such as Aston Villa’s prior 3-2 loss to visiting Wolverhampton last weekend.
Yes, Villains did defeat Everton soundly before playing 3 memorable fixtures with Chelsea, Man United, and Tottenham, but it was also clear that timing was on Aston Villa’s side. Time ran out on Saturday as Villains surrendered a 2-goal lead (and eventually 3 points) to a Wolves lineup that isn’t especially known for an indomitable 2nd half attack when trailing after the first 45 minutes.
Though it seems like Arsenal is in better form than what punters have generally come to anticipate from Gunners early in domestic cycles, it is still not helping the club ascend into UEFA position on the Premier League table. Arsenal’s output of goals has been limited to lopsided wins, with nothing “left over” for key tallies in other, often-deadlocked matches.
Arsenal is a poor money line pick at (-115) since a 4-0 victory comes without bonus points in SU odds. Soccer bettors can expect an offer of (-116) or approximate 1/1 payoff on Over (2.5) goals on FanDuel Sportsbook.
10/23: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Crystal Palace’s “zonal” defending and the difficulty of opposing-team preparations that it creates has made the club a solid early-season underdog. Wagers based on CPFC’s defensive ability can be compared to betting on “Flexbone” or “Triple-Option” teams in American college football, as the tactic must only click on a given weekend for big payoffs and “irrational” outcomes to manifest.
Similar to when an “option” running NFL or FBS team can play defense too, it helps when a “countering” Premier League side can score some goals. 23-year-old Frenchman Odsonne Édouard has already scored 3 times for Eagles in EPL matches this cycle, and CPFC has produced 4 goals in 2 matches against Leicester and Arsenal. Eagles’ healthy attack has the club cast as (-105) favorites to defeat visiting Magpies on Saturday, with (+240) odds and Over (3.5) total goals a thinner-than-expected market on a high-scoring outcome.
Pick: Crystal Palace
10/23: Leeds United at Wolverhampton
Are Wolves (+195) getting undervalued at FanDuel for the 2nd straight week? Wolverhampton went into last weekend’s match at Aston Villa, another team full of relative top-level newcomers, and wound up as a double-digit live bet on the latter half as Villains held a late 2-0 lead. But an explosion of goals gave the visitors a dramatic 3-2 win and all kinds of momentum in the midst of a thin appearance ledger, calling 2/1 odds on Wanderers to defeat Leeds United a curious offer.
The odds for Leeds to prevail at home are driven by the club’s stubborn defending in a recent triumph over visiting Watford. However, the Saturday “favorites” have no other victories in 8 EPL matches and could become relegation victims in 2022 pending future performances.
10/23: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City
City of Manchester Stadium has seen some exceptional football this year, as Man City debuted with a pair of 5-0 victories and most recently conquered Bundesliga, League One, and the Premiership all-in-succession with clean sheets. But the club’s form hasn’t always been comparable when on the road. Manchester City lost unexpectedly at Tottenham Hotspur in August, took 2 yellow cards in an anxious 1-0 win at Leicester, and dropped 5 of 6 points on a fall tour through Paris and Liverpool – though admittedly not an easy trek.
Has Brighton (+600) fared well against visiting aristocrats this year? Seagulls defeated guest Leicester City in September and held Arsenal to a 0-0 draw in October’s maiden match at Falmer Stadium. But the underdogs have the “disadvantage” of having upset Man City 3-2 in recent memory, indicating that Pep Guardiola’s lineup will err on the side of striking power as Citizens hope to avoid yet another embarrassing fall.
Pick: Over (3.5)
10/24: West Ham vs Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham and West Ham are almost side by side on the Premiership table after 8 fixtures, belying the gap in money, resources, and supporters between the warring clubs. But the broad viewership of Spurs has been let down by 3 consecutive league losses, while Hammers continue to be a tough opponent at home in another season of overachievement. West Ham is flourishing against Europa League visitors and has beaten Leicester City 4-1 at London Stadium, though the club’s arduous schedule of international play could eventually wear down a thinner lineup than what Tottenham has to offer.
At the same time, it appears that Spurs (+190) have snapped out of an EPL swoon with cracking timing. Tottenham took advantage of a Newcastle red card to protect a lead in the late minutes of Sunday’s league victory, despite an ugly own-goal that set the pitch alight in added time. Final scores like “3-2” have a funny way of changing soccer odds thanks to recreational bets from “scoreboard glancers,” who would do well to consider Tottenham’s 2-to-1 ball possession advantage over Magpies, or Spurs’ 4 fouls compared to 13 by Newcastle.
10/24: Brentford F.C. vs Leicester City
Soccer supporters can see other strange soccer odds all across the board. Leicester City is an annual contender for UEFA honors, a club which began the Premier League cycle with a rousing defeat of Wolves and continued on to beat Ronaldo and Manchester United in mid-October. Brentford was promoted at the end of last decade and has no such resume, yet Blades (+165) are a very slight money-line favorite over Foxes on Sunday.
Understanding these numbers relies on an analysis of both clubs’ recent form. Brentford’s midfield-heavy formations have bothered Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool this season, allowing Blades to take the role of the patient, counter-attacking upstart looking for a top-half ticket to greater Europe. Leicester, meanwhile, is 11th on the table despite the triumph over CR7. Since advancing over Millwall in a 2-0 EFL Cup victory, Foxes are winless across all competitions.
Pick: Under (2.5)
10/24: Manchester United vs Liverpool
Sunday’s marquee match between Man United and Liverpool will have punters debating tactics and formations, but the most popular betting angle is not hard to determine. MUFC has looked confused, listless, and slow to react on the pitch since winning a few matches behind the momentum of signing Ronaldo.
At the same time, Liverpool appears to be of its customary quality on the attack, and has had only a few back-line problems in 2021. Still, the visitors to Old Trafford are a plus-odds (+120) wager to defeat Red Devils in this upcoming matchup.
The challenge of Salah and Liverpool has the betting public thinking United could finally be woken-up. After all, Sunday’s brand of match is exactly why the FIFA legend signed to play Premier League football in the 1st place. Salah and other EPL strikers are afforded supporters’ bases of many millions of viewers, more than even Ronaldo’s club teams have garnered despite the striker’s worldwide name-recognition and celebrity. Out-dueling Salah on a domestic-league pitch is a feather-in-the-cap that Ronaldo desperately wants to earn.
The timing could be wrong for a hat-trick or even an upset win. Man United is playing soccer as if waiting for CR7 to step up to the ball and craft another masterpiece, except it takes more teamwork and better tactics to set-up a Ronaldo’s golden boot than it does to simply pass the football to Salah and watch him perform.
Liverpool’s 1-on-1 ability close to the opposing box creates an “aggregate” scoring threat more dangerous than United’s catch-as-catch-can efforts to feed its striker. Thus, Reds could have an answer for every attack that comes to Alisson.
The Reds goalkeeper is waiting in Spain for his team’s arrival to play a Champions League contest after missing a recent match vs Watford due to Brazil’s national-team schedule. Liverpool won in convincing style anyway and, thanks to a hat trick by Firmino, emerged as a 5-0 victor.
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.