English Premier League Matchday 4 Preview: Citizens and Reds Among the Vulnerable?

Sometimes 2 different angles can lead to the same conclusion. For instance, I am personally in favor of universal health care, but not due to a belief in collectivist governance or in professional services as rights. Rather I feel that abiding medical care for all is a moral choice that humanity must make if civilization is to flourish – a building block of a peaceful society. My angle leads me to the same conclusion as that of someone who thinks government should pick their parking spaces.

There isn’t a lot of peace on Premier League pitches, and not always a whole lot of civilization among supporters in the stands. But the above principle of logic applies to soccer too – sometimes sports handicappers can agree on a basic game-plan in spite of how they might look at outcomes.

A particular way to view Matchday 3’s outcomes is that only Manchester City and Liverpool are upset-proof – every other heralded Premiership side is vulnerable.

“My” Toffees – and I say that not because I grew up an Everton supporter but because I sure picked the hell out of the club going into the 2019-20 season – lost to Aston Villa 0-2. Manchester United dropped 3 points to Crystal Palace as Old Trafford became the site of a revived Eagles counterattack. Tottenham lost to Newcastle, Wolves didn’t catch the rabbit in a 1-1 draw with Burnley, and Southampton embarrassed Brighton at Falmer Stadium. Only the Liverpool and City matches went according to plan.

Another POV is that upsets always happen early in the EPL campaign and that this particular domestic football season began earlier than most, so iconic clubs falling in surprise summer/fall outcomes is inevitable and just a matter of time. United controlled the ball for over 70% of the match against zonal-defending CPFC; Wanderers assailed Clarets’ backline with shot attempts but simply missed the mark too many times prior to Raúl Jiménez’s match-saving penalty.

And it’s not as if City and Liverpool didn’t have anything to worry about. Pep Guardiola’s side faced their own devilish counterattack from Cherries, as A.F.C. Bournemouth managed 7 shots on-target against Ederson at Dean Court in Manchester City’s 3-1 win. Liverpool struggled to pass well and keep the ball in-possession in the 1^st half against visiting Arsenal, and led by a slender 1-0 at the break.

Of course, when an opponent is feeling too pressured at Anfield, it’s usually a matter of time before you-know-who breaks through.

Either way you look at it, the successful ‘capper’s conclusion has got to be the same. Be very careful when deciding on moneylines this time of the year. In fact, don’t even think about betting City and Liverpool’s lines-to-win in 90+ each week believing you’ve found a safety – like slowly building up Southeast Asia in Risk. One of these days (-400) on Reds or Citizens is bound to fall, and the winning or tying tally-against could be scored by someone from Southeast Asia for all we know.

Here’s a few concise words on Matchday 4…and on the betting principle of caution.

Southampton vs Manchester United

Saturday’s early match will test the resolve of a jilted MUFC lineup at St. Mary’s Stadium.

But the hosts’ pressing style often tends to appear academic against elite attacks like that of Marcus Rashford and the Red Devils, and I can’t see many footballs getting past David de Gea.

The line-movement of United lengthening to a (+110) moneyline is just an impulse-reaction to the loss last week.

Pick: Manchester United

Chelsea vs Sheffield United

I can’t fathom why Chelsea is a (-290) pick at Bovada Sportsbook after the woes that have befallen Blues for 3 straight weekend.

Sheffield United is a Premiership newcomer in 2019, but heck, so is Cardiff City, and Canaries went toe-to-toe with Chelsea F.C. on Matchday 3. Don’t buy into a market based on shirt color.

Pick: Draw (+395)

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

This is among the more-intriguing kickoffs of the Saturday morning (state-side) Premiership slate. Villa is fresh off a rousing upset win – Palace is fresh off a rousing upset win.

Villains didn’t do anything special on offense against Toffees at Villa Park, not trying a single corner kick and running offsides 8 times. But the club simply defended its tails off. Like cautious, conservative opponents in other sports and competitions, the secret to beating Crystal Palace may lie in a team’s ability to stay patient and protect its own backline from calamity. Palace football is like a Venus fly-trap – don’t fly inside, just mind your business and you’ll be okay.

But it’s hard to overlook Eagles at (+120) after the breathless finish at Old Trafford announce the club’s official arrival as a force in 2019-20. The hosts were eliminated from the Football League Cup this week and will be eager to move on from the chagrin of many reserves and a few top names.

Pick: Crystal Palace

Man City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Manchester City’s dominance and Seagulls’ obvious problems have led to City taking bets at (-1200) on the moneyline for Saturday’s match at home.

As I mentioned earlier, bookmakers are aware of the only-City-and-Liverpool-are-locks handicapping angle and are locking the markets down with downright silly odds on those clubs to beat lesser rivals in the Premier League.

Brighton at 28-to-1? I’ll pass at present, but a line like that is going to pay off before winter.

Pick: Under (3.5)

Newcastle United vs Watford

Hornets took it on the chin from Hammers last week while Newcastle soared against Spurs.

Betting against Newcastle United in this circumstance reminds me of the Major League Baseball “system” gambling tactic of picking against lesser clubs after a big win. Except beating Watford at home wouldn’t qualify as a huge win this Saturday – the pressure is down and morale is high.

Pick: Newcastle United

West Ham vs Norwich City

Bovada gamblers have seen their way clear to make Hammers a (-115) moneyline favorite for this Saturday match, and it helps newbies to remember that (-115) on a 3-way soccer ML is nothing like (-115) or an American football or basketball team. Victory isn’t a natural outcome in soccer – West Ham will have to earn 3 points at home against yet another tough newcomer in the 2019-20 Premiership.

Canaries don’t deserve to be a 3-to-1 underdog considering the club’s highly-competitive summer and recent win over Newcastle. Punters may have noticed the sour Tuesday result at Crawley Town and decided to crawl-y home without placing a wager.

Pick: Norwich City

Leicester City vs A.F.C. Bournemouth

The current (+395) line-to-win for Cherries is among multiple mispriced lines on underdogs this week, considering Bournemouth’s brave performance against Man City last week.

Pick: Bournemouth

Burnley F.C. vs Liverpool

This match – Saturday’s late stand-alone fixture broadcast nationally in the United States – is a rare opportunity to take a reasonable and fair moneyline on 1 of the 2 exceptional clubs of the EPL.

Liverpool is a (-300) moneyline after opening at (-338) but it’s hard to imagine Reds not prevailing in the fixture after watching Gunners get drowned by a tidal wave at Anfield.

Liverpool’s attack is too much for a lot of elite backlines, let alone the Burnley back 4.

Pick: Liverpool

Everton vs Wolverhampton

Ugh. I hate to give up on a preseason futures pick so early, but I can’t bring myself to recommend Toffees at (+120) over Wolves on Sunday, given the club’s miserable display over much of 3 weekends.

Las Vegas is using a “system” of its own and the gamblers are following suit – perhaps the atmosphere of Goodison Park alone will help rouse a sleepy lineup.

But that tense 1-0 victory over Watford on Matchday 2 looks a lot less impressive now that we’ve seen Hornets have another go-‘round…and Wolves has been flying high in Europa League matches while remaining (literally) impossible to beat for 3 weekends straight.

Pick: Over (2)

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Sunday’s 2^nd and final match should see a lot of betting action in North America, if for no other reason than the NFL won’t get cranked-up until the following weekend.

Unai Emery’s club will snap back as it often does. So will Spurs. But the winner of this match will make more breathless saves and clearances in what should be a fast-paced drama.

I’m liking the Over (3) which has threatened to pull down to (2.5) in mid-week. I’d wait until 5 or 10 minutes go by without a goal (hopefully) and try to find a live Over/Under line under (3) and then take the favorable line on the best odds possible – the in-play payoff odds constantly fluctuate so keep a fresh trigger-finger if you’re live gambling.

But for the moneyline, Tottenham is the pick – a spirited and deep attack which was wounded but not vanquished on Matchday 3, and the price is right at (+185).

Pick: Tottenham