EPL Odds and Picks for Round 3: Newcastle vs City ATS and Best Monday Goals Wager

With the NFL preseason in full swing, and the Oklahoma fight song about to loop a punch-yourself-in-the-head number of times on American network TV, it would have been a tenable business move for the Premiership to schedule as many kickoffs as it could in August, to beat the calendar in a World Cup season while grabbing some big international TV ratings before the NFL, FBS, NBA, or NHL can commence rounds of play. UK soccer bosses have gone in a different direction instead, slating a “lazy” maiden few rounds of fixtures that don’t dare start sooner than Saturdays, along with a marquee EPL clash this Monday that’s designed to draw hemispheres’ worth of eyes to a single pitch in Manchester.

The game of football, be it played with the hands or with the feet, sneaks up on speculators on both sides of the pond. Why not give punters a chance to breathe and set about picking English winners each Wednesday in summer, still allowing for 72-hours-out speculation and line movement? Besides, the Premiership’s junkies are using Tuesdays to get over the shell-shock of this season’s opening rounds, in which Reds of Liverpool have virtually surrendered to Man City in the title race already by taking a single point from each of 2 marginal clubs, while Sky Blues continue to outclass all opposition.

Pep Guardiola’s club has become the “prohibitive” Premier League futures-odds favorite that WagerBop warned of last week, and it’s not because Manchester City’s (-270) odds to win the table again are devoid of value as a betting price. Analysts have stopped anticipating a comparable campaign from Liverpool, and bettors are spreading their “casino chips” out on such a number of alternative rivals that none of them, including Reds, can get to thinner than 6/1.

London’s matching 16-to-1 futures lines on Chelsea and Tottenham may fit the theme of last week’s draw between those clubs, but readers can look for each number to shrink as the reality comes to fore of how far superior each side looked against the elite competition, versus the unexpectedly poor form of Mohamed Salah’s team. The same can be said for Gunners of Arsenal (+1800), which stands tied with Man City at an early stage of the cycle.

Arsenal has all but equaled City’s attack in quality, if not Citizens’ perfect back-line record, through 2 rounds of the season. Gunners have beaten 2 teams of the sort Liverpool has drawn with, and given Leicester City’s reputation prior to 2021-22, Arsenal’s opening 2-match ledger may have actually been more challenging than those of either of 2022’s 1-2 finishers.

In his significant tenure as a Premier League head coach, Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp has most-likely come across a handful scouting reports that say “Wilfried Zaha is Crystal Palace’s best weapon.” But the CPFC veteran scored anyway to stake Eagles to a 1st-half lead which shook Reds supporters to their core Monday. The team managed a goal in the 2nd half largely thanks to infrequent counters from the fatigued guests at Anfield, but there was no overwhelming response from the Liverpool attack, which only took 4 on-target shots.

Indeed, even Liverpool’s latter-half equalizer was bittersweet in tone, for just minutes prior, Reds defender Darwin Núñez was red-card dismissed after flattening Joachim Andersen of Palace.

Given that England’s domestic-league “bridesmaid” has tripped over the church steps, we can expect top-4, top-6, and top-half EPL futures odds to shift even more swiftly than 2022-23’s outright-winner odds. Liverpool’s current (-600) odds to finish domestic top-4 could soon fatten into reasonable payoff territory if Salah’s side can’t defeat Manchester United on the road this Monday.

Premier League Match Odds, Previews, and Picks

Tottenham vs Wolverhampton (Saturday 8/20)

Lilywhites of Tottenham Hotspur are fat with talent and ready to rumble in 2022. Regardless, punters in London (or Las Vegas) may not be ready to wager on Tottenham to win at 1-to-3 odds, such as this weekend’s (-270) money-line market on Spurs to defeat visiting Wolves (+700).

Spurs needed yet more late-hour heroics from Harry Kane just to escape with a single point against Pensioners. But with Wolves facing what could potentially be the club’s worst cycle since coming back into the UK top level, the time is now to pick teams to defeat Wanderers before opposing odds get any thinner, just as the day is now-or-never to pick City’s futures odds to lift hardware once more.

WagerBop’s Pick: Tottenham ATS (-1) (+120)

Everton F.C. vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday 8/20)

Sportsbook sharks be drawn to Fulham’s (+195) odds to conquer Bees of Brentford on Saturday, looking at the solid start to Cottagers’ season and a beatable opposing roster. Still others will go for Brentford’s odds-to-win following the team’s amazing romp over United in the opening half last week. Nottingham Forest’s (+310) underdog money-line odds against Toffees could prove even more appealing than either of the aforementioned bets, though, given that Everton’s form has been in the tank since last autumn. Everton F.C. is a (-110) pick to win for the maiden time this season.

Tricky Trees may be inexperienced at forward against goalkeepers of Jordan Pickford’s stature, and there’s no late-summer hangover to be found on a Toffees lineup that can sharply remember the relegation-stress of matches played late in the 2021-22 campaign. With the club returning home to Goodison Park to take on a newly-promoted team this weekend, London and Las Vegas appear to agree that it’s Toffees’ time to assert at least the quality of a top-half team and claim 3 points to begin some kind of table contention.

The flip-side of that angle, however, is that Nottingham is still largely mysterious to the relatively badly-organized host defenders, with Toffeemen having met a totally different (and rarer) kind of minnow in Boreham Wood when Everton advanced in the 2021-22 FA Cup. The Spurs-Chelsea draw in Round 2 saved WagerBop from a sour follow-up week after scoring on 3 out of 4 debut picks, and another fat-payout draw might occur at Goodison Park on Saturday, to the tune of (+240) in money-line odds.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+240)

Leeds United vs Chelsea F.C. (Sunday 8/21)

Maybe the “minnow-happy” betting trends of the EPL’s early weeks aren’t dead as a tradition after all. Peacocks of Leeds United are boasting generous odds for a kickoff with visiting Chelsea. Leeds United is merely a (+500) underdog bet next to the aristocrat’s (-190) money-line price to win a match with (-136) odds on Over (2.5) total tallies scored in Sunday’s match.

Leeds United has scored 4 goals in 2 matches, a continuation of the club’s excellence with the ball last cycle. Supporters could argue that the Leeds back-line has made offseason strides as well, given new arrivals like Stars & Stripes defender Tyler Adams. Peacocks couldn’t hold a 2-goal lead over Southampton last week, however, an outcome that will cause EPL analysts to continue to cast doubt on the group led by a 22-year-old goalkeeper in Illan Meslier.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chelsea (-190)

Newcastle United vs Manchester City (Sunday 8/21)

This Sunday’s fixture at St. James Park could be viewed as Manchester City’s first real challenge of 2022-23. West Ham, the foil of Sky Blues on the Premier League’s opening week, is not mounting the kind of potential top-4 campaign like Hammers enjoyed in the glorious days of last season. Citizens walloped a promoted team, AFC Bournemouth, by 4 goals last weekend.

Magpies of Newcastle United provide a higher level of quality in addition to more momentum than Hammers or Cherries, and join Manchester City in having allowed 0 goals in 2 rounds. Host footballers are drawing bets at (+700) money-line odds to upset visiting City (-280), with FanDuel bookmakers inviting against-the-spread picks on Sky Blues at (+100) payoff odds while giving Manchester City only a single (-1) goal disadvantage ATS.

Manchester City (-1) at 1-to-1 odds is actually not a bad pick at all, considering the “safety” of a routine 1-goal win alongside the potential for a payoff.

WagerBop’s Pick: Man City ATS (-1) (+100)

Manchester United vs Liverpool F.C. (Monday 8/22)

Ronaldo’s team was embarrassed by Brentford last weekend, giving up 4 goals in the opening half to lose in a clean-sheet laugher. Some gamblers will wager on MUFC’s (+470) underdog odds-to-win instead of the (-175) money-line odds on Liverpool, anticipating that the desperate season-opening straits at Old Trafford will snap Red Devils out of a costly funk.

The betting concept is similar to the optimistic angle on Everton’s money-line market this weekend, as we imagine Toffees bearing down to take 3 must-have points. How easy it must be to forget that Everton flopped against “must-win” opponents at Goodison Park late in 2021-22, just as United has enjoyed a million chances to step up and redeem its reputation against name-brand rivals, with little success, in the past few years of domestic and international play.

Prevailing payoff odds of (-198) on a result of Over (2.5) goals show that London expects a wide-open match, as Reds and Red Devils alike hit the “red button” and turn their seasons around with a great appearance. Yet it’s noteworthy that it’s Liverpool’s attack, not the Reds back-line, which disappointed most of all in last round’s 1-1 draw against modestly-talented Eagles of CPFC.

Superstar keepers Alisson and David de Gea would love to know their clubs are focusing on defense prior to an important “get-well” fixture. Meanwhile, it’s true that Monday’s bout is more well-matched than the lopsided money-line odds seem to indicate, especially given that Reds couldn’t even dismiss a promoted team to begin 2022-23.

But the superior “sides” pick of the match involves FanDuel’s fat odds on Handicap Draw (Liverpool (-1)) at (+280) or nearly 3-to-1 odds.

WagerBop’s Picks: Under (3.5) (-162), Handicap Draw (+280)