EPL Sunday Picks: Everton vs Wolves Moneyline Odds, Arsenal-Leicester ATS, Leeds vs Norwich Upset Pick

Anfield was the sight of a brave tactical performance last weekend, as Liverpool chose to allow West Ham to produce knife-edged counters and dangerous shots aimed at keeper Alisson. Reds confidently played the percentages in midfield and moved swiftly to gobble-up errant Hammers pass attempts, turning trash into treasure in much the same way Manchester City counter-attacked a sloppy Manchester United side on Sunday. Sadio Mané has tallied 12 Premier League goals this season, but few have been as portentous of victory as his 1st-half goal against Hammers.

The counter-play by Man City against Man United was so effective that Sky Blues handled David de Gea’s free kicks as if they were easy throw-ins from teammates, reminding analysts of the engine of speed, quality, and reserves at Pep Guardiola’s disposal. It’s strange that such a mundane angle as efficiency playing out from the back would separate the EPL’s best 2 teams from the crowd, but Red Devils played on a tilted pitch last Sunday, and there’s no promise in a championship wager on Chelsea F.C. when Sky Blues and Red Devils are playing so much football near opposing boxes. City would have to drop double-digit points to allow Chelsea back into the race, a long-shot indeed given how telling Sunday’s results were.

Blues remain a “team without a future … bet” as a thin-odds (-3500) favorite to finish top-4 in spring 2022. There’s not likely to be a realistic, yet suitably generous futures wager to be found on Chelsea outside of the Champions League, that is unless sportsbooks stop and invent newfangled “top 2” and “top 3” markets for the EPL.

Betting odds on a top-6 finish parallel the Premier League’s international qualification system via additional slots in the UEFA Europa League, ensuring that long-term bettors are not at cross-purposes with their cheering interest as teams fight for placement. Unsurprisingly, top-6 finish prop odds have proven far more volatile than EPL championship odds in the 2021-22 cycle. There are almost no “favorites” to finish in guaranteed UEFA qualifying position; teams are instead moving rapidly in risk-reward odds as top-half teams suddenly reverse form during Saturday and Sunday fixtures.

For an example, Tottenham was the darling of EPL futures speculators after upsetting Man City in a corker, with the stunning 3-2 victory capped by Harry Kane’s winning goal. Three Lions celebrities can move an odds board in short order, and Spurs appeared to be in good fortune with both a leisurely ledger of fixtures and a lower-tier FA Cup opponent on the horizon. In a flash, Spurs were upset by Burnley of the EPL and Middlesbrough of English Championship, and Lilywhites found themselves in 7th place and out of the FA Cup. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s steady form and matches-in-hand are helping to cast Gunners (-2000) as the prohibitive favorite in FanDuel Sportsbook’s “top 6” prop bet market.

Punters will be captivated by relegation odds as the season winds to a close. Newcastle has roared with an 8-match unbeaten streak in league play, pulling Magpies out of the ignominious relegation-odds “favorites” category now occupied by Norwich (-3500), Watford (-700), and Burnley (-115). Clarets face a tall task in attempting to pass Brentford or Everton, the latter still just a (+380) pick for relegation as shell-shocked supporters wrestle with watching the worst Toffeemen squad of recent memory. But Peacocks could be the best bet at 2-to-1 odds thanks to the dreadful back-line performance of Leeds United.

That same back line could be the key to a nice, high-reward underdog pick this weekend. But first, here’s a look at a match from Saturday’s uncommonly thin ledger.

Sat. March 12: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool

An unlucky draw in the EPL schedule has cast a shadow over Brighton F.C.’s noble efforts over the winter. Each of the league rivals Seagulls have faced in the past 4 matches have been trending upward. Brighton’s fatigued lineup fell victim to numerous counters in a subsequent loss to burgeoning Burnley F.C., then met an Aston Villa attack which continued to awaken with the football whilst schooling Seagulls 2-0. Finally, Brighton ran into Newcastle, a side that remarkably has gone 8 matches without a loss.

Last weekend also paired Liverpool (-210) against its own difficult upstart, but unlike Seagulls, the EPL’s 2nd-place club triumphed with a solid opening half. Seagulls are expected to face fatigue issues against Salah’s surging side, including the challenge of 2 league matches in 4 days. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering fat (+124) odds on a result of Under (2.5) total goals.

After blowing a 2-goal lead to Brighton & Hove Albion at Anfield in October, Liverpool is under pressure to defend well, thereby making the latter gambling line attractive as a sober pick.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5)

Sat. March 12: Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur

As of a fortnight ago, pregame copy-writers couldn’t wait to get their hands on Man United vs Tottenham. Following each club’s disappointments over the last few matches, the same Premier League hype experts may struggle to sell Saturday’s match as a clash worth tuning-into.

Spurs, a (+240) underdog at Old Trafford this week, has been playing some of the flakiest football of any Premier League contender in 2022. The next week’s 0-1 loss to Burnley F.C. was what American fans would call a “trap game,” but there was no such excuse handy when Lilywhites failed to conquer Middlesbrough in spite of Tottenham’s dynamic Kane-Son duo starting in front of keeper Hugo Lloris. Not to be written-off as a victim of sudden overconfidence, Spurs prevailed in another pair of Premiership matches in the same time-frame by a combined 9-0 margin.

Red Devils cannot claim to be “inconsistent” on the attack. Instead, MUFC has been consistently hampered with the ball and unable to score more than a single tally in any appearance since February 20th. Man United may boast Ronaldo as an existential striking weapon on the pitch, but he’s no more of a one-man band than Kane at this point in each man’s career, making the bright (+110) odds on United to win a bit questionable.

(-136) odds on Over and (+112) on Under (2.5) total goals are currently offered at FanDuel.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) 

Sun. March 13: Leeds United vs Norwich City

Premier League action this Sunday will draw bettors to brands like Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man United. However, Leeds United and Norwich City shouldn’t be overlooked at all, thanks to an exaggerated (+410) line on Canaries as they take to the road.

An arduous match on home grounds awaits both Leeds and Norwich this Thursday, potentially weakening a pair of shoddy back-lines. Norwich City’s worst-ranked attacking effort has been so pedestrian that Canaries supporters would trade any forthcoming clean-sheet draws for some signs of life with the football. Leeds, meanwhile, has defended so badly in recent defeats that Peacocks may be facing relegation even if they do score a few goals along the way.

Either way, Norwich’s impressive results over the past 5-10 matches are a better resume than anything the porous Peacocks can boast of. 4-to-1 odds aren’t bad on a club that’s preparing to meet a minced-meat set of defenders on the pitch.

WagerBop’s Pick: Norwich City

Sun. March 13: Chelsea F.C. vs Newcastle United

Bettors will be turned away from Sunday’s money-line markets and toward generous (+182) odds for the production of 4+ total tallies all due to Pensioners’ prohibitive (-380) odds to win. Christian Pulisic and Blues overwhelmed last weekend’s O/U (3.5) total by themselves despite Burnley’s poor form.

However, the 10-to-1 odds on Newcastle are harder to glaze past considering how the underdogs have developed as a unit over the past several weeks. Magpies’ stubborn defending withered as the attack waned in October’s 0-3 loss to visiting Chelsea at St. James Park, but Newcastle has found brand-new quality with the football since then, and unheralded keeper Martin Dúbravka has piloted the club through a surprise invincible run with poise and determination.
Of course, mid-table opponents of any sort are rarely “invincible” at Stamford Bridge, but FanDuel’s (-114) prop betting odds on Newcastle to score indicate that bookmakers aren’t as sold as punters are on Blues.

WagerBop’s Pick: Newcastle (1 unit bet only) or Draw (+470)

Sun. March 13: Everton F.C. vs Wolverhampton F.C.

Though Everton is facing potential relegation in what would be an historically bad cycle for the proud organization, the club is a strong (+130) favorite to prevail over Wolves (+240) at Goodison Park. Those eye popping odds are justified by a variety of factors.

Wolverhampton F.C. allowed multiple goals to an English Premier League visitor for the maiden time in forever in last weekend’s 0-2 loss. An uncharacteristic Wanderers foul, followed by Wilfried Zaha‘s successful penalty kick for Eagles, ended all suspense in the opening half. There’s also the question of motivation, as Everton will approach every appearance as a “playoff” mission throughout March and April, while Wolves could find chances to coast. That being said, there’s no doubt Wanderers want to play in Europe in 2022-23.

Everton has procured a berth in the FA Cup quarter-finals, but the passion from club headquarters appears too confined to meetings and headlines and is not translating into exemplary form. Former Chelsea skipper Frank Lampard is imploring Toffeemen to fight and stave-off relegation. At the same time, though, the anxiety and pressure behind every possession are leading to inaccurate shots. Everton has failed to score in 4 of its last 6 league matches, and lost to Norwich 2-1 in the appearance before that. Wanderers have lost 3 in a row, but against much stronger opponents.

WagerBop’s Pick: Wolves

Sun. March 13: Arsenal F.C. vs Leicester City

The scoring depth of Arsenal (-175) can be illustrated by talented forwards Alexandre Lacazette and Nicolas Pépé accounting for less than 10% of Gunners’ healthy 41 goals tallied in just 25 matches against league opponents this year. Las Vegas bookmakers don’t believe that Leicester (+500) can slow down Arsenal, as Foxes have fallen into bottom-half position and must face a well-rested Gunners side after themselves hosting a UEFA match this Thursday.
Draw odds are offered at a generous (+350) in spite of Leicester’s numerous 1-1 and 2-2 outcomes, mostly due to the feast-or-famine Arsenal’s total of 3 draws. A Gunners win by more than the (-1) handicap garners a generous (+150) payoff at FanDuel.

WagerBop’s Pick: Arsenal ATS