Europa League Final: Will Moneyline Gamblers Flock to Arsenal or Chelsea?

We forget that the football moneyline is all-too often a “roulette wheel” of sports gambling by an exponential factor. When a casino gambler chooses red or black, she is assured of almost 50% success. When a sportsbook bettor chooses Arsenal or Chelsea on the moneyline, there’s at least a 20% or 30% chance neither market will pay off. There is always that “Draw” outcome lurking to take both sides’ dollars away.

But even if you don’t like to play with soccer moneylines, following line movement on the ML is a great way to gauge how supporters’ groups and high-rollers are feeling headed into a massive match…especially between storied English clubs.

If Liverpool plays some little-known underdog from Russia in the finals of an international tournament, we know that the Reds are going to take a few more “impulse” wagers and supporters’ good-luck bets at a number of betting sites. It goes that way whenever a name-brand opponent is facing a nobody.

However, it’s quite debatable whether Arsenal or Chelsea has more wealthy fans logging into Bovada Sportsbook or BetOnline and putting cash on their favorites. London and Las Vegas line-movement prior to May 29^th’s UEFA Europa League Final between the Gunners and the Blues will be strictly a matter of football sense, and of course, what a few handicappers like myself (but more prominent in the business) have to say.

Arsenal’s (+210) underdog line at BetOnline hasn’t changed in a few days. Chelsea’s line of (+131) has grown a little fatter, but nothing to write home about. At Bovada Sportsbook, the action favors a draw result a little less (+230) and gives Arsenal (+205) odds-to-win and a (+115) payoff on a pick’em goal spread.

Bettors are clearly biding their time. Yet with Arsenal poised to snatch a Champions League spot for 2019-20 with a win on Wednesday, should there really be such a divide between favorite and underdog on the odds board?

Not if the way Gunners have played in springtime is factored into the wager.

Arsenal vs Chelsea: A Clash of Styles

These clubs could mix like oil and water.

Chelsea has had no problems defending over the long haul – a 6-0 loss to Manchester City in February can be chalked up to Sarri’s stubborn tactics and not a club-wide deficiency on the backline. Kepa has been solid, at-times brilliant in goal, and the Blues proved they could play with Citizens shortly after the embarrassment.

But a lack of goal-scoring and attacking pressure has plagued the 18-19 squad at times, like when Pensioners were unable to answer Liverpool on April 14th, or were mysteriously blanked 0-4 by Cherries in late January.

A late-winter scoring slump for Pedro, Eden Hazard and other Chelsea forwards had arguably begun in the weeks prior, when Sarri’s club was blanked by Tottenham and Arsenal just 11 days apart. Spurs, of course, are known (or at least should be known) for a capital backline. Even with the injury to Harry Kane, it has not been surprising to see Tottenham continue to triumph with clean sheets.

The same can’t be said for Gunners, who have posted a surprising number of them lately.

Grand Attack, Defensive Issues for Gunners

Arsenal has been the pits of defensive football at times in 2018-19. Bosnian backliner Sead Kolašinac and center-back Shkodran Mustafi were pulled off the pitch as Liverpool rained orbs into the net during a clobbering over the holidays.

The Christmas spirit was lost on Gooners, who excoriated coach Unai Emery and the team’s back 4…or back 6.

For a while, Arsenal’s top-4 bid in the Premier League got by in a “poor man’s Man City” sort of way. Aubameyang is so terrifying that opposing clubs played carefully, not wanting to open up the matches, and allowing Gunners to prevail with rudimentary defending and clearance. When an elite attack chose to press ahead, it was often a different story.

But Emery has stayed the course, and his toil has resulted in Arsenal being a much stouter football club in 2019. In early spring, keeper Bernd Leno led a marvelous string of clean-sheet victories in Premier League competition, as the club blanked Southampton, United, Newcastle, and Watford in a 6-match span, the latter outcome a 1-0 win at Vicarage Road in which Gunners not only controlled the ball but goaded Troy Deeney into a red card in only the 11th minute.

Meanwhile, veteran Petr Čech has excelled in the Europa League, causing supporters to speculate on just when Emery would make a switch – or if the skipper would make a switch – away from a keeper who clearly had a knack for the competition.

The answer? Never. Or at least, not according to all accounts. Čech has apparently been given the nod to keep taking the club as far as he can during what will probably be the veteran’s last-ever soccer tournament. I doubt even a poor start would take the GK off the pitch for any part of 90 minutes, or 120 minutes and beyond if necessary.

Hopefully Čech will play the match of his life, win or lose, and then avoid the mistake made by so many aging athletes and singer-songwriters…the mistake of playing annual “farewell” tours.

Gooners, meanwhile, are calling for Leno to play in the match after all.

Arsenal vs Chelsea: Prediction and Best Bet

The match in Azerbaijan has a mispriced betting line. There are 2 teams with excellent goalkeepers (at least a single side has 2 it can count on) who have each been holding opponents off the board with regularity – yet only 1 team – the underdog – has a striker who can blow the match wide, wide open.

Arsenal is a more complete, more dynamic club than Chelsea. The Pensioners’ legendary backline and depth-of-attacking might make them the true favorite to win the Europa League title, but Gunners at (+210)? Those odds are illogical for a coin-toss outcome.

Take Arsenal Football Club to win on the ML or ATS.