Field Goal Underdog Memphis Could Break UCF’s Streak This Saturday

No team has come closer to stopping Central Florida’s dominant streak of unbeaten football than the 2018 Memphis Tigers. The Tigers fell in a 31-30 defeat to the Knights earlier this season with a healthy starting QB in the opposing lineup.

The Memphis defense is hoping to abuse a replacement, frosh quarterback while snatching the AAC championship and a repeat-undefeated season away from UCF in this weekend’s title game in Orlando.

But college football odds-makers are not convinced it’s going to happen. Central Florida is a (-3) point spread favorite at many Las Vegas books, and no sportsbook (that I am aware of) lists Memphis as the favorite on Saturday.

UCF was gut-punched by the devastating right knee injury of celebrated QB McKenzie Milton. Milton has been on a path to smash school records with 8,683 career passing yards, 72 touchdowns, and a passing efficiency of 152.3.

Milton is certain to come back stronger than ever in 2019 as he took his first steps in rehab over the weekend after the surgery last Saturday. But for now, there remains very young QB at the helm for a program that must recover mentally in a week’s time.

Enter redshirt freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. The swift and agile 6’3” 230 lb freshman is a more daunting threat in the running game than the lighter Milton, and steered the squad adeptly in last weekend’s rivalry win over South Florida.

But the passing game is a puzzle. Mack Jr. went 12/20 for 69 yards in his lone start, a 37-10 win against AAC bottom-dweller East Carolina. The tenderfoot could be described as a late-bloomer at the quarterback position, an adaptable player who scouts doubted would flourish as an FBS quarterback coming out of high school.

Too many old analysts still think a massive passing arm is the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd most-important ingredient for a developing young QB. But recent FBS seasons have shown that there is more than 1 way for a signal-caller to thrive on the gridiron.

Milton’s backup (now the starter) was not precise through the air in his snaps against USF, but he managed the game and carried for 50+ yards in 10 tries. Give him 10 extra completions for 50+ yards instead, and his final passing stats would have been 15-of-24 for close to 150 yards. If he were a 1-dimensional pocket passer who put up those passing numbers while rescuing the team against a strong rival, would ESPN not be kissing his feet by now?

Mack Jr. can bank on the speedy sophomore Greg McCrae who is averaging 9.0 yards per carry this season. The UCF defense is coming close to being a superior unit that ranks 18th in scoring defense among FBS teams. But if the Tigers put together another halftime lead like the one they enjoyed over UCF in Memphis this season, it could be the curtain on the Knights’ epic unbeaten run.

Memphis is not hurting at QB – literally or figuratively. Junior graduate transfer Brady White has held down the fort for the Tiger offense with superb 157.8 passing efficiency. However, the bread and butter is still the ground game, in which Memphis has earned a spot among the top 5 rushing offenses in the nation.

The Tigers suffered from mental and physical breakdowns in the rainy mid-season home loss to UCF, blowing a sizable halftime lead. This time, we can anticipate Memphis trying to shorten the game behind elusive running back Darrell Henderson. The junior has gashed defenses from all angles, averaging 8.6 yards per carry and 19 touchdowns.

Meanwhile, 6’3 223 lb Patrick Taylor Jr. is a monster in the red zone with 14 rushing touchdowns. The Tiger offense can try to lull the Knights into tight coverage on the LOS while trying to corral a two-headed monster in the backfield, and then strike deep down the field to wide receiver Damonte Coxie.

The Tiger defense may have dodged a bullet with Milton’s injury, though; it is nowhere near the type of unit that Central Florida puts on the field. The Memphis defense has grappled to defend the pass. In a 2-game October stretch, the Tigers gave up about 800 passing yards, 7 passing touchdowns and 100+ total points to Missouri and East Carolina without once nabbing an interception.

UCF’s defense is underrated thanks to the conference the Knights play in, and I am thinking Mack Jr. will have a better game than some pundits anticipate.

Still, if the Tigers had held on in the rain when they had the Knights on the ropes last time, this would be a pick’em spread. Yet, if Milton had not played in that one, UCF surely would have been beaten.

Take the prevailing ground game of Memphis (and a pretty good starting QB) to cover (+3) and potentially end UCF’s multi-year winning streak once and for all on championship weekend.