First Responder Bowl: Handicapping Boise State vs Boston College

There hasn’t been much Vegas line movement on the Boston College vs Boise State scrum at Cotton Bowl Stadium on 12/26. In fact, the betting odds have been amazingly steady for more than a week.

The Boise Blue are a (-3) favorite on the point spread. A middle-of-the-road O/U total (55) may reflect the Eagles’ failure to take over games on offense against worthy foes late in the season.

BC quarterback Anthony Brown overcame great challenges to get himself healthy for the season. But the sophomore was injured yet again against the Clemson Tigers in the 10th game, and has not been on fire since then. Brown’s status as a dual-threat is in serious jeopardy after a negative rushing total against Syracuse. And the defense has not played well enough to overcome the lack of scoring power.

You can say one thing about the 2018 Boston College Eagles, though. When they have played weaker teams, they have almost always won by an imposing margin. Despite Brown not being close to 100% in early September, Boston College opened the year by trouncing UMass and Holy Cross.

The QB then seemed to come into his own against a quality opponent as the Eagles whipped Wake Forest 41-34 on the road. The young signal-caller finished the game with 304 yards and 5 touchdown passes.

In mid-season BC went on a remarkable 3-game ACC winning streak, beating Miami and Virginia Tech by a combined 23 points.

But the receiving corps is not thriving. Sophomore Travis Levy, a running back, led the Eagles with 31 catching yards in the 27-14 win over the Hurricanes. Speedy senior Michael Walker, who leads the nation in combined kick-return yards, shrank from the passing game altogether after grabbing 5 catches for 100+ yards against Miami and VT. Fellow upperclassman Jeff Smith leads BC with 6 TD catches.

Then the defense began to show major cracks. Good defense is the cornerstone of Steve Addazio’s program, and the unit played valiantly in the 27-7 defeat to Clemson. But the following week, the Eagles allowed a besieged FSU team close to 500 yards of total offense, and Syracuse passer Eric Dungey had a huge day in the Orangemen’s 42-21 clobbering of Boston College that ended the November slate.

The team is getting out-rushed and out-protected way too often. Opposing edge-rushers are starting to tee off. Star tailback A.J. Dillon was injured badly against Florida State, and wound up having a pedestrian day against Syracuse.

If Dillon and Brown are not at 100% in bowl season, even for pre-Cotton Bowl practices, that is a virtual horror show for Boston College. Dillon can basically be labeled “BC’s running game” – the underdogs will have a hard row to hoe against Boise State unless the offensive backfield can get healthy in a hurry.

Whether it is injuries, discouragement, or just exhaustion after a tough slog through the ACC schedule, Addazio’s squad is missing its mid-season form in several categories…kick-returns notwithstanding. The head coach just signed a contract extension that will give the roster a sense of security in the postseason, but fortunes against BSU are looking anything but secure.

Boise Black and Blue

BC’s saving grace could be the injury report from Boise State. 4 receivers, including TE Matt Pistone and thrilling freshman Khalil Shakir, are hurting. They could potentially miss the game at the Cotton Bowl, though Shakir’s prognosis is hopeful. Senior defensive tackle David Moa is out for the year, along with several safeties and defensive backs.

But with a few exemptions, the key names will still line up for Boise on 12/26. Alex Mattison is one of the shining stars of the Pacific Time Zone at tailback, rushing for 1415 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2018. Brett Rypien will target receivers Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson, each a more-developed talent than anyone Boston College can throw out wide.

The pass rush will be a major factor. If the Boise Blue allow Brown time to sit comfortably in the pocket and throw, covering even a minus-FG spread becomes a devious proposition. If the Broncos get to the QB without fail on defense while Rypien, Modster and Mattison put on a show, then a TD-or-more victory margin for the favorites is all but certain.

While there are many reasons why Boise lost to MWC champion Fresno State on December 1st, a lack of backfield infiltration from the front-7 was not one of them. Junior LB Tyson Maeva finished the scrum with 11 total tackles and a sack of Marcus McMaryion. Brawny freshman Ezekiel Noa was around the football for 4 quarters. With resourceful DBs like Jordan Happle wreaking all kinds of havoc on blitzes, the Broncos recorded 8 tackles-for-loss and knocked down 4 pass attempts.

That is the kind of Group of 5 defense that can help triumph over a Power-5 contender that is not clicking on all cylinders.

Predictions ATS and on the Over/Under

I’m leaning toward Boise State to cover, because the Broncos have more players in key roles who are 100% healthy and feeling good about their continual production. If BC was a conference-winner with waves of big and fast upperclassmen taking the field, Boise’s deep injury report (and ensuing lack of depth in the reserve ranks) could hurt the Blue by the 4th frame. But that is not the case this time.

The “under” (55) could be an even better suggestion here, however.

I can imagine a sloppy defense-oriented game taking place while Boston College struggles to get its mojo back and Boise State adjusts to the speed and size of an ACC opponent. I also like the disciplined and fervent Broncos’ special teams unit’s chances to slow down Walker…even when he’s running.

A few touchdowns will likely be scored in the 2nd half, but that will not blow away the O/U if the halftime score is 10 to 6 in favor of the Mountain West.

Take the Under for a high-percentage play at the Cotton Bowl.