Florida vs Georgia: Betting on a Huge SEC Showdown in Week 9 

There’s been some line movement in recent NCAA and NFL gridiron betting odds that defies conventional wisdom. It’s almost as if bettors in different markets come from different sub-sets of the American football fan base, and consequently do not see eye to eye.

For instance, a few favorites in big games have been taking heavy action on the spread, driving the number wider. But for some of the same games, the Over/Under has simultaneously fallen with the action. Or, conversely, O/U total lines have risen just as the underdog gets more play on the moneyline or ATS.

That contradicts a time-honored rule of handicapping, one so basic that casinos typically write it into the rulebook for sports betting. If an FBS team is favored by a substantial margin, the sportsbook will not allow its customers to parlay the stronger team winning vs the spread with an Over bet on the total-points line. Nor do books allow “correlated” parlays on the Under and the underdogs covering.

It’s common sense. If Memphis is favored to romp SMU by 20 points, and the final score adds up to 80, there’s a better chance that the Tigers covered, opposed to a result in which barely as many points are scored as the point spread margin itself.

But here we are again, and at least in a subtle sense, the betting lines for UGA vs Florida in Jacksonville this Saturday are moving in cross-currents. Georgia is currently giving (-7) points and the spread is widening. But the Over/Under is dropping slightly (always significant given that the betting public loves Over bets) and currently stands at (51.5).

The odds probably reflect the dynamic quality of SEC football in 2018. This was supposed to be the league’s Year of the Quarterback. To an extent, it has been. Tua Tagovailoa is one of the finest natural talents ever to stand behind center, Nick Fitzgerald is setting rushing records at Mississippi State, and Joe Burrow has given the LSU Tiger offense competence and staying power in big games. Yet I would argue that improved quarterback play is not the most crucial reason that the SEC has returned to its place as a dominant FBS conference.

SEC contenders are doing it all, displaying a well-balanced brand. The fine defenses are numerous – Alabama, LSU, UGA, Florida and Kentucky (and to a lesser extent MSU) are each capable of shut-down performances with tons of sacks and tackles-for-loss. The league’s starting RBs and WRs are pacing or even exceeding the ACC’s in on-field ability, a welcome change for fans tired of out-blocking and out-tackling Clemson but losing anyway due to the Tigers’ superior skill players.

Georgia has not 1, but 2 excellent QBs on the roster in College Football Playoff veteran Jake Fromm and dynamic frosh spot-player Justin Fields. Elijah Holyfield has been putting up rushing numbers that challenge those put up by a more-heralded offensive backfield in 2017-18, with a terrific 7.5 yards per carry and team-leading 488 yards. Kirby Smart’s staff has been strictly limiting the junior’s carries, preferring to hand the ball to flashy D’Andre Swift, who carried for 72 yards against LSU on 10/13.

That’s where the good news ends for the Dawgs. UGA fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with a troubling 36-16 loss to the Tigers in Baton Rouge earlier this month, committing 4 turnovers. Swift is still banged-up and may not see as much action against Florida.

There’s now officially a QB controversy in Athens as well. Fields appears poised to give the squad a boost if given the chance. But Fromm has been reliable in so many huge contests that Smart may be loathe to take away the keys just yet. Fields is the quarterback of the future and is already getting in-game reps. I don’t expect a bona-fide QB transition at Georgia at least until the school faces Massachusetts on 11/17.

Florida is not unscathed as a 6-1 unit prepares for battle. UF struggled to get past Vanderbilt last weekend, signal-caller Feleipe Franks having a mediocre 4 quarters and the defense allowing Vandy a halftime lead before stiffening in an eventual 37-27 win. The Gators allowed almost 5 ypc, only sacked Kyle Shurmur once, and won by double-digits thanks to a super-accurate outing from frosh PK Evan McPherson.

Cut the Orange & Blue some slack. The team faltered at home against Kentucky in only the 2^nd game of the year, but since then, the defense has looked like a division-dominating unit while a Franks-led offense blows away lesser programs and does just enough against the Top 25. The Gators shut down Fitzgerald in Cowbell City to end September, then whipped LSU to begin their October slate, intercepting Burrow twice in the process. Sophomore DB Brad Stewart Jr. raced for a pick-6 in the 27-19 victory.

Each team in will try to establish the ground game this Saturday. Georgia will want to get Fromm a few looks against 8-man boxes to re-establish his confidence throwing downfield. Florida will want to protect Franks from a fierce UGA front-7 while its defense protects a short field.

Consider that Florida is unbeaten and nearly unbothered outside of the slip-up against UK in Week 2. The 13-6 final score over MSU is deceptive, since Todd Grantham’s defense had a powerful rushing offense checked. It was like a 1970’s Dallas Cowboys score. 10-0 on the board, but the opponent might as well have been down by 100.

A strong rush defense, a noisy Sunshine State crowd, and the fluidity of having played and won in Week 8 (UGA got a bye) make Florida less of a true underdog than some teams playing pick’em games this weekend. Georgia is favored by gamblers because upsets as drastic as the LSU debacle take a while to sink in.

Take advantage while Vegas is still in shock. Bet the Gators and (+7) points.