Florida vs Miami: Vegas Line-Movement on ‘Canes Reflects Flawed AP Ranking

It’s nice to see a marquee college football game kicking-off the FBS season this weekend. It’s not all that nice, however, to see that little “#8” attached to the Florida Gators’ brand in pregame coverage.

Oh, it’s nothing personal against the Gators. Don’t worry – I’m not a closet Oklahoma Sooners fanatic, still upset about getting Tebow’d out of a national-title bid in 2009. Preseason AP polls are the devil, though, spreading imps of mischief throughout the NCAA gridiron hierarchy.

Top 25 college teams may be beaten by stronger foes in Week 1 (or Week Zero, which was probably invented to advertise Coke Zero or something) and be knocked as having fallen to an inferior roster in an “upset.” Meanwhile the superior victor is still viewed as a scrappy upstart even as it climbs up the polls.

Suppose Miami beats Florida on Saturday evening in Orlando. Would that be a “surprising upset” of the supposedly 8^th-ranked Gators? Or just an outcome between a pair of storied programs that we really don’t know much about yet in 2019-20?

A thin majority of Las Vegas gamblers think the preseason AP poll is a piece of coal, shrinking the Hurricanes’ underdog line to (+240) while UF stands as a (-290) and (-7.5) point favorite.

Assessing SEC and ACC Representatives for Saturday’s Kickoff

Florida junior QB Feleipe Franks came alive as the 2018-19 season progressed, throwing 24 touchdown passes and thrilling fans at the Swamp. But the key number in his stat line is “6,” as in the number of picks that the typically mistake-prone passer threw in his final underclassman campaign.

Talent in the offensive backfield is there, potentially making the Gators a dynamic team by October. But the program’s calling card in this era is a fierce defense, led by ball-thieves C.J. Henderson and Brad Stewart Jr. in a light-footed backfield.

Jabari Zuniga is a run-stuffing and pocket-collapsing presence on the defensive line, and the special-teams unit is full of burly, fast linebackers.

Meanwhile, coach Manny Diaz and the Miami Hurricanes have selected a starting QB…finally.

Poor play at the quarterback position badly hampered Mark Richt’s ill-fated run as head coach at The U.  Miami couldn’t score enough points to take advantage of a 4^th-ranked defense featuring Jonathan Garvin, and in 2019 they’ll turn to a freshman.

Jarren Williams, erroneously listed as “S” class for sophomore on 247Sports, has gotten the nod as Saturday’s starter for Miami. I’m a tad skeptical of the raves on Williams especially since “24 for 38 for 6 touchdowns” is a tag-line of his High School career.

On the prep level, 60% for 6 touchdowns means that he struggled with accuracy on some underneath throws while hitting every fast kid at Central Gwinnett High with home-run passes.

That’s applying a harsh standard to be sure, but the outing is also supposedly the best aerial performance of Williams’ 2017 campaign.

Florida vs Miami in Orlando: Betting by Principle or With a Hunch

Florida will try to assert physical superiority and put heat on a rookie signal-caller early in the contest. However, there’s also a danger of overconfidence on the Gators’ part as Florida-Miami isn’t an annual blood rivalry in the 2010s, and student-athletes read AP rankings too.

Miami is a pretty good ATS pick at (+7.5). I can’t see the Gators beating down on a fresh, healthy OL from the ACC unless the ‘Canes give up running the ball, which they won’t do with a brand new skipper and a streaky QB at the helm.

At some point Florida – plagued with missed Red Zone opportunities and perilously-slender leads as usual – may stop trying to blow-out the ‘Canes and simply feel content to win by a touchdown. That’s still a won wager on the Hurricanes ATS.

But we can’t ignore the Over/Under, which has been shrinking from 50+ points all the way down to (47) as of press time. There are no catastrophic injury problems on either team – it’s August.

Potentially responsible for the unorthodox line movement is the weather, with thunderstorms in the forecast which could delay the kickoff, the 2^nd half, or both, and create a ragged-timed atmosphere of sloppy play.

That’s an error by the gambling public. Maybe a bigger error than reading too much into preseason rankings – or rating the SEC above the ACC in 2019. The liability of potential sloppy play applies to all 6 units at a time, the offense, defense, and special teams of both opponents. Not just the offenses!

NCAA ballers are just as likely to blow coverages as drop TD passes at 12:30 AM. Especially if it’s still the 3^rd quarter.

Take the Over (47) for a likely winner at Camping World Stadium this Saturday.