Georgia at Kentucky: Do the Bulldogs Deserve a Wide Point Spread?

There are lots of stories of high-rollers manipulating a sportsbook’s lines in order to change a point spread or an O/U total to what they want it to be (before placing another even-higher bet).

But there are other times in which the betting public simply seizes on a consensus opening line that looks strange, at least to the untrained eye. Or even the trained eye.

The Georgia Bulldogs were beaten badly by LSU earlier this month, falling 36-16 after a 2^nd half collapse. Kirby Smart’s squad tried a silly fake field goal attempt with the kicker running (those rarely work out very well) and fell slowly behind into the 3^rd quarter, but it was a fatigued defensive performance in the final frame (17 points-against in the 4^th quarter and almost 300 total rush yards for the Tigers) that sent shivers throughout Athens and beyond.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats have established themselves as a contender in the SEC East. UK may actually be better at football than basketball for the 1^st time in ages. The ‘Cats are 7-1 and tied with UGA for the division lead, making their match-up with Georgia this Saturday just as important as a scrum between 2 slightly higher-ranked SEC powerhouses in Baton Rouge.

The point spread opened in double-digits for the favored Dawgs following an impressive home win over Florida, but gamblers quickly realized that UGA is not playing within the friendly Athens hedges this weekend but traveling to a snake-pit to face a world-class defense. That added up to an early-week rush of bets on the Wildcats to cover.

The spread is now falling to as low as (-8) at some sportsbooks, a crucial number considering that 8 points can equal a touchdown and a 2-point conversion (i.e. just a single score/possession) while a (-8.5) margin is a whole other ballgame.

Do I agree with the public this time? Or not?

The answer is yes. On both counts.

Wait, how does that work? Well, I agree that the Bulldogs are a bad bet at (-10) or (-11). But as the line gets shorter and shorter – assuming the heavy action on Kentucky continues for another day or 2 – Kentucky becomes less and less of a potential lock to cover.

Handicapping the SEC can be compared to NFL betting in the sense that results can seem almost random. When 2 big, physical teams are evenly-matched, there are many potential outcomes. If a bell-curve chart plotted the likelihood of winning margins for either side before an SEC battle, you’d want the dispersal just a little bit wider and more randomized than for other, ultimately more-predictable conference games between Sun Belt or C-USA schools.

Jake Fromm has bounced back from a terrible 4-interception day in Baton Rouge with a 3-touchdown day against Florida in Athens. Fromm was buoyed by the 2-headed monster of D’Andre Swift (who lives up to his name) and Elijah Holyfield (who’s the real deal). The UGA defense picked-off Gator QB Feleipe Franks and held Florida to less than 300 yards of offense.

But that wide SEC potential-outcome dispersal also must allow for home-and-away handicapping, more important in the Southeastern Conference due to the raucous venues. Kroger Field in Lexington isn’t exactly The Swamp or The Horseshoe, but there’s no doubt the UK fans will a screaming horde on Saturday with 1^st place in the division, and a likely appearance in the SEC title game, on the line.

Kentucky has the ammunition to make the student section happy, even against Georgia. The Wildcats play prison-yard defense, can run the rock with Benny Snell at tailback, and QB Terry Wilson’s designed-rush and scrambling ability makes up for deficiencies in the passing game.

I can see Kentucky coach Mark Stoops choosing to keep his offense conservative in this contest, not wanting to give away the ghost with turnovers. UK’s offense arguably had its best day in an early-season road win over the Gators, but has excelled in scoring just enough points to win while a top-10 defense knocks the hell out of opposing QBs whenever friendly crowd noise allows a quick jump on blockers.

The Over/Under is a modest (43.5) out of respect for both defenses.

I’m liking Kentucky to cover any point spread that gives the Wildcats at least (+9). The line is still over a touchdown + 2-pointer at many major betting sites. But UK might be an even better wager in the moneyline market ((+290) at BetOnline, as an example of a line I might pick out for a ML gamble) as the real chances of the underdog upsetting the road-vulnerable Dawgs are healthy in such a volatile and emotional contest.

Take advantage and place a bet on the hosts to cover or win before the lines change again.