Georgia at LSU: Picking an SEC Slug-Fest on the Spread

Before the 2018-19 season started, I wrote that Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is loaded at QB, and his only real problem is figuring out who will run the rock.

“Smart is hoping that freshman RB Zamir White, the top-ranked rusher in the 2018 recruiting class, will continue to amaze after racking up Hershel Walker-type numbers in high school,” read my – ahem – indubitably correct prognostication. “Meanwhile, 5’11” senior Terry Godwin leads a deep if not superstar-laden WR corps.”

White has enjoyed nary a carry for the Dawgs in the young fall. Instead, it has been Elijah “Don’t Call Me Evander” Holyfield leading the way with 7.4 ypc on over 50 attempts. Godwin has been eclipsed by 3 other wide receivers, including junior Mecole Hardman, who has 4 touchdown catches.

UGA is undefeated, ranked #2 nationally, and the Bulldog defense has not been threatened outside of a few apprehensive minutes in Columbia. As Ken Whisenhunt likes to say, “…and that’s what’s important.”

Meanwhile, LSU has surpassed all but the most Tiger-colored-goggle expectations at 5-1. The Tigers were the latest victim of an invigorated Florida squad in their last time out, leading to a favorite vs underdog betting situation in an SEC contest that would have been considered a toss-up a few short days ago.

The 2 proud schools clash this Saturday afternoon, each having designs on winning its respective division. LSU hosts Alabama in 2 weeks, but scoring the upset in that one will not make much of a difference if there are already 2 league losses on the books.

My book’s current UGA-LSU point spread is set at a precarious (-7 ½) for the Dawgs, giving the odds-maker 2 ways to go once the action heightens on Thursday and Friday.

Georgia is the (-310) moneyline favorite in a contest with an O/U of (50) total points.

At 6-0 and indomitable in the SEC, there is no reason to believe the Bulldogs are not on a crash-course for the SEC Championship Game and a possible spot in the College Football Playoff.

But that does not mean they will not lose unexpectedly.

Many pundits had the LSU Tigers staying unbeaten last week. SEC schools can lose a conference game and then go on to win the national title, and sometimes underdog betting comes down to finding that nasty downer week.

The Bulldogs’ lowest scoring output is a 38-point showing 2 weeks ago against Tennessee, but the ’18 team is centered on a crushing defense. Georgia boasts the nation’s 2^nd best scoring D, holding 5 schools to 17 points or less. UGA held Mizzou’s Drew Lock to only 221 yards passing.

Georgia CB Deandre Baker is top among NCAA defensive backs.

Jake Fromm’s domination of the offense will keep highly-touted freshman Justin Fields on the sideline until further notice. Fromm’s QB rating through six games is 192.5; he has only thrown 2 interceptions, and 10.5 yards per attempt (not yards per completion, yards per attempt) is just crazy.

On Saturday, Fromm will try to do something he has not yet accomplished as a Bulldog – beat a top 15 team on the road.

Ed Orgeron’s Tigers slid defensively against the Florida Gators. While the final score may hint at a defensive struggle, Florida actually moved the ball very well against the Tigers all day, a definite concern with the big, bad Dawg OL coming to town.

LSU gave up 215 ground yards in the contest. That has to be hard to swallow for a team that has always prided itself in winning in the trenches.

As per usual, the LSU offense features multiple tailbacks. Nick Brossette (4.9 ypc on 118 carries) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4.7 ypc on 70 carries) are giving Tiger fans a little more to chew on (and a whole lot more 1^st downs) than a lot of backs in the later years of the Les Miles era ever did.

The big-picture good news is that Orgeron has a QB he now trusts in the form of Joe Burrow. The signal-caller has been exceptional all season. But the latest returns did not cash. Burrow, a former 4-star recruit and Ohio State transfer, struggled against Florida, completing only 55.9% of his passes to go along with two interceptions – his first 2 picks of the season.

He will have to return to his turnover-averse self on Saturday against Georgia, since the Tigers cannot afford to give the Bulldogs extra possessions.

Each team will have its run defense tested, first and foremost.

Georgia’s defense is relinquishing only 113 yards per game on the ground, but LSU’s average yards-against just shot way up thanks to the turnstile-tackling display against the Gators.

Fromm is not necessarily more gifted than Burrow, but he has more experience on the biggest stages. Whether or not UGA can run all night, the Dawgs will face 3^rd and long at some point. When that happens, the LSU pass rush will match-up against strapping OTs on the other side.

Louisiana State is a fierce edge-rush team in general, but outside of junior OLB Michael Divinity Jr, nobody on the roster is setting the world on fire bringing down QBs. Safety Grant Delpit is a terror with 3 sacks and 3 interceptions, and the Bulldogs must get ready for his inevitable blitzes.

Superior numbers from UGA wear down a valiant effort from LSU this weekend. I am thinking the Dawgs will win by 10+ points and cover the spread. If the line dips to (-7) for the favorite, increase the units on your wager.