Here’s Why Conor McGregor Will KO Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229

After nearly two years away from mixed martial arts, Conor McGregor will return to the UFC’s Octagon to face his toughest test yet.

McGregor (21-3), who is arguably the UFC’s most talented striker, will be tasked with overcoming the undefeated grappling phenom that is Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0) to reclaim his UFC Lightweight Championship.

Analysts, fans, and even the athletes are mostly undecided about who will come out on top at UFC 229 on October 6, yet each of them can see either of the two outcomes occurring:

• Khabib Nurmagomedov will take McGregor down to the mat and maul him
• Conor McGregor will land his mighty left hand and put Nurmagomedov to sleep

You already know the drill. All of your closest mates will turn into overnight MMA analysts with a “proven” record of picking UFC winners every time.

Fear not, though, because we’ll make sure you look like the smartest guy in the room when our intensive research and analysis helps you beat the bookmakers at UFC 229.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor Odds

Fighter	Odds	Site
Khabib Nurmagomedov	-162	BetOnline
Conor McGregor	+155	5Dimes

Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have nailed the odds for this fight, leaving almost no value for bettors on either side of the ‘to win’ market of this UFC Lightweight Championship fight.

Khabib Nurmagomedov is a deserving betting favorite. The Russian grappler has navigated his way to 26 consecutive wins as a professional mixed martial artist and defeated all 10 of his opponents in the UFC.

Excluding Darrell Horcher, who stepped in on short notice to replace the injured Tony Ferguson, Khabib Nurmagomedov’s has faced stiff competition in his last five outings.

Event – Date	Opponent	Outcome	Time
UFC 223 – April 7, 2018	vs. Al Iaquinta	Win – Unanimous Decision	25:00
UFC 219 – December 30, 2017	vs. Edson Barboza	Win – Unanimous Decision	15:00
UFC 205 – November 12, 2016	vs. Michael Johnson	Win – Submission (Kimura)	12:31
UFC on FOX 19 – April 16, 2016	vs. Darrell Horcher	Win – KO/TKO (Ground & Pound)	8:38
UFC on FOX 11 – April 19, 2014	vs. Rafael Dos Anjos	Win – Unanimous Decision	15:00

 

More importantly, however, Nurmagomedov has completely dominated every one of these fighters.

In these last five fights, Nurmagomedov landed 3.86x more strikes, secured 20 takedowns, and passed guard 30 times.

In a simpler language, Nurmagomedov drags his opponent to the mat and mauls them.

Last Five Fights	Strikes	Takedowns	Takedown %	Guard Passes
Khabib Nurmagomedov	428	20 of 49	41%	30
Opponent	111	0 of 2	0%	0

 

Khabib Nurmagomedov has been nothing short of extraordinary against high-level competition. It is important to remember, however, that while statistics can be very convincing, even the most advanced statistics are unable to paint the full picture of a mixed martial arts bout.

For now, it’s time to review Conor McGregor’s recent work.

On a purely statistical basis, McGregor hasn’t dominated his last five opponent’s in the same way that Nurmagomedov has.

McGregor was marginally outstruck by Nate Diaz on two occasions (at UFC 196 and UFC 202), but he outclassed his other three opponent’s,  Eddie Alvarez, Jose Aldo, and Chad Mendes.

Last Five Fights	Strikes	Takedowns	Takedown %	Guard Passes
Conor McGregor	308	0 of 2	0%	0
Opponent	284	6 of 18	33%	3

 

Immediately proving that statistics are just like a excellent book with a terrible cover, you shouldn’t be swayed by these statistics because McGregor’s work has been nothing short of exceptional.

Event – Date	Opponent	Outcome	Time
UFC 205 – November 12, 2016	vs. Eddie Alvarez	Win – KO/TKO	8:04
UFC 202 – August 20, 2016	vs. Nate Diaz	Win – Split Decision	25:00
UFC 196 – March 5, 2016	vs. Nate Diaz	Loss – Submission (Rear-naked choke)	9:12
UFC 194 – December 12, 2015	vs. Jose Aldo	Win – KO/TKO (Punch)	0:13
UFC 189 – July 11, 2015	vs. Chad Mendes	Win – KO/TKO (Punch)	9:57

“The Notorious” utterly destroyed Jose Aldo, the greatest featherweight champion in the history of the UFC, in just 13 seconds at UFC 194. He then went on to claim his second title in the UFC by defeating Eddie Alvarez in dominant style at UFC 205.

Before you bet on what is expected to be the most significant fight in the history of the UFC, you’re going to want to learn about the lucrative betting opportunity we have uncovered…

Conor McGregor Will KO Khabib Nurmagomedov

After countless hours of tape study and statistical analysis, we are confidently predicting that Conor McGregor will KO Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov and McGregor are two high-pressure fighters that require control of the Octagon to impose their (obvious) game plan.

Conor McGregor’s best work happens when he controls the center of the cage, and he is incredibly proficient at doing so. McGregor masterfully controls the action by cutting the cage with lateral movement, feints, and a variety of strikes to the lead leg, body, and head. Against Alvarez, McGregor denied Alvarez the center of the Octagon and continually backed him into the cage before unloading powerful combinations of strikes.

On the other hand, Nurmagomedov might not be as skilled at controlling the cage as McGregor, but he relies on doing so to win his fights. We analyzed each of Nurmagomedov’s recent fights and found that the champion has a tendency to attempt takedowns when his opponent is backed into the cage, and he is relatively unsuccessful when he attempts a takedown away from the cage.

If Conor McGregor can control the center of the Octagon (much like Al Iaquinta did through the middle rounds, and Darrell Horcher did for nearly three minutes), his chances of denying a takedown will significantly improve. And for every minute that this fight remains standing, McGregor will continue to inflict damage on his opponent.

Now, will Nurmagomedov simply accept this outcome? Of course not.

Our research discovered that the Nurmagomedov typically attempts to regain control of the Octagon not by using feints or careful footwork, but by recklessly moving forward into striking range. This was a successful strategy against Al Iaquinta, Edson Barboza, and Rafael Dos Anjos, who all conceded ground to the Russian because they had not established a dominant position.

However, against a composed striker like Conor McGregor, he might pay the ultimate price.

McGregor’s combination of lightning-fast hand speed, incredible reflexes, long reach, and devastating punching power led to the destruction of Jose Aldo in just 13 seconds and a brutal beatdown of Eddie Alvarez. But even more so, it was because Alvarez and Aldo carelessly moved forward into McGregor’s striking range.

We believe that the fighter who controls the center of the Octagon will win this fight convincingly.

That fighter will be Conor McGregor.

Currently, Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO is +200 with William Hill.

We believe this is a line that won’t last long, as more and more bettors are continuing to flock to McGregor as an underdog. As we approach the fight, McGregor’s odds are also likely to shorten, as casual spectators are enticed to place a bet on their favorite superstar without acknowledging the actual fighting strategies of each fighter.