Herm Edwards’ ASU Sun Devils an Underdog in Las Vegas Bowl

Any bowl committee with rights to the MWC champion is no slouch, and therefore it feels like a major letdown that Fresno State is paired against a mid-tier contender like the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Las Vegas Bowl on December 15^th. Especially given what high hurdles the Bulldogs overcame to beat-out Boise State for the crown.

But live-event planners from Vegas know what they are doing (imagine that!) and typically put well-matched schools on the field. A ranked Boise team beat Washington 28-26 in 2012, and Utah beat BYU by a TD in a poignant Las Vegas Bowl played 3 years ago.

Herm Edwards’ ASU is traveling to Sin City as a 7-5 Pac-12 program that needed a comeback to squeak past Arizona in the Duel in the Desert. Sustained belief in the Power-5 (and in ex-NFL coaching) has made certain that the Sun Devils are not cast as a major underdog against Fresno State.

Casino handicappers, however, are not about to make the same blunder twice on an annual scrum in their own backyard. Last year, Vegas marked Oregon as an easy winner only to watch as Boise State humiliated the Ducks at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Lesson learned – taking the Mountain West winners lightly is a recipe for low-risk, high-payoff underdog bettors thrashing the sportsbook. Fresno State is a (-4) point-spread favorite on Saturday in a bowl with a middle-of-the-road (53.5) O/U total.

Bulldog Breakthrough  

It seemed as if the Fresno State Bulldogs would not be able to get over the hump against Boise State in 2018. The programs have become such ferocious and familiar rivals that any small advantage seems to carry the day, and the Broncos hosted the Mountain West title game on blue turf.

It didn’t matter. The visitors methodically ground down the Boise Blue in nasty weather, holding Brett Rypien to just 125 yards passing and eventually prevailing in OT.

Fresno State’s defense is ranked #17 overall in the FBS, and plays hard in the Red Zone. Marcus McMaryion is the type of quarterback that does just enough to win – the 22-year-old didn’t do a lot in a 38-14 pounding of UCLA, but dwarfed his team’s offensive production and point-scoring in a 27-3 blow-out of Wyoming that set the Bulldogs alight in the MWC.

The Mountain West was only 3-6 against the Pac-12 this season, though some of the meetings were Pac-12 strongholds against MWC also-rans.

I am not ready to say that an 11-2 MWC winner that trampled Chip Kelly’s team should be handicapped as an underdog or even a pick’em against any 7-5 squad from the Pac-12. That is, unless and until there is evidence proving otherwise.

For ASU, Exhibit A might have already fled the courtroom.

Not So Wild About Harry

Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry announced last Monday that he has hired an agent, and will prepare for the 2019 NFL Draft as opposed to playing in the Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State.

Las Vegas delivers a marvelous bowl game, but its event suffers from the syndrome that affects all minor bowls. The biggest names do not tend to play, particularly if they are from Power-5 schools that “expected” to play later in December. Ungratefulness is the only sin, and Harry’s choice is regrettably the popular one.

Has ASU’s sudden loss of a premier talent caused any lines to shift? Astonishingly, not really, though many sports betting sites began offering bowl odds on the same day as Harry’s announcement, so it could have been timed perfectly for books to steer clear of a mistake in the Over/Under market.

A big bummer at the WR position might be the last thing the Sun Devils need right now. Manny Wilkins is a rock-solid veteran presence behind center, but he is not always the most precise or prolific passer in the Pac-12. In a loss to Oregon on November 17th, the senior finished well below 50% through the air and was embarrassed on rushing attempts.

If Wilkins cannot find open receivers among a group that jointly posted only 1 more touchdown than Harry in 12 games, that leaves it to a pretty good defense, a quality OL and a sophomore tailback named Eno Benjamin to try to splinter the steely Bulldogs.

Las Vegas Bowl: My Pick on the Point Spread

All of the Eno Benjamins in the world cannot win bowl games for FBS schools so long as everyone else is about the Benjamins. The fine running back should have a huge day behind ASU’s brawny blockers, but when it comes time to throw, look out for the tough, scrappy Bulldogs to take advantage of a skill corps missing its talisman, and potentially win the turnover battle by +2 or +3.

Meanwhile, the Fresno State offense could manufacture more points than expected. It is the same unit that drilled drives through the ice at Albertsons Stadium not too long ago.

I’m looking for McMaryion to have at least as productive an evening as Wilkins, and probably rush for more 1st downs.

Take the Mountain West champs to cover the spread.