How Recent NCAAB Outcomes Affect the Field of 68

Last week, I predicted the 68-team field for the annual NCAA tournament, dividing the teams I deemed deserving into 4 regions of 16 seeds each. I was very clear that mid-January was “way way too early” to be doing that, as so much can change in the final 5-6 weeks of the college hoops regular season.

This last week has been heaven for college basketball fans. We have been treated to some top-tier matchups and nail-biting finishes.

.@BBeverly10 beautiful pic.twitter.com/l6O4XzKxJu

— NC State Men’s Bball (@PackMensBball) January 26, 2019

As the playoff picture begins to take form in our crystal balls, each miscue, big shot, and thrilling upset becomes more and more important. Bubble teams in danger of falling out of the field are playing for their postseason lives each and every time they set foot on the court. Elite powerhouses are trying to secure a 1 or 2-seed. Small-conference teams are playing for seeding in the conference tournament – their only path to the dance. Each game means something to each side.

With that in mind, here are my takeaways and the playoff implications from some of the best and worst performances in college basketball this past week.

College Basketball NCAA Tournament Seeding: Team-by-Team Breakdown

Texas Christian (TCU)

I do not believe any team in college basketball did more than TCU this week to help their chances of being included in the field. With two wins over tournament teams, Texas and Florida, TCU has jumped up and out of the “First Four”.

Interestingly enough, I had the 12-seed in the South being a TCU-Florida First Four game. The SEC-Big 12 Challenge brought these two bubble teams together and has left Florida on the outside of the bubble looking in.

Indiana

I had the Hoosiers in as a 10-seed despite their 4-game losing streak. That streak has now reached 6 games, and Coach Miller’s bunch showed against Michigan that they are nowhere near competing at an NCAA tournament level right now.

Indiana would be excluded from the 68-team field if Selection Sunday were today. Indiana has #19-ranked Iowa and #6-ranked Michigan State on the schedule twice each. The Hoosiers will need to win at least 2 of these games, preferably 3, to claim their spot in the field. It is looking like it will take a Big Ten conference tourney championship for IU to make the dance.

Kansas State (KSU)

After beating #14-ranked Texas Tech by double-digits, KSU looked more like a team deserving a 6 or 7-seed than the 9-seed I pegged them at. This was their 2nd-best win of the season. The Wildcats then followed up that performance by dropping a game to the middling Aggies of Texas A&M.

This split week leaves KSU in that 8-9 seed range. They are a winning streak away from getting a really good first-round matchup but are one rough stretch away from missing out on the dance.

Furman

The early-season darlings of college basketball, the Paladins sealed their fate as an NIT team on Saturday when they dropped a home contest to Samford. Now losers in 3 of their last 4, Furman will need to win the Southern conference tourney to dance.

Winning this tournament seems unlikely for Furman, as they are currently staring up at Wofford, UNCG, and East TN St in the standings – all 3 of whom have beaten the Paladins this season.

Ohio State

One of the highest-ranked snubs in my first predictions, the Buckeyes extended their losing streak to 5 after being dismantled at home against a superior Purdue squad. A road win at Nebraska stopped the bleeding, but Ohio State is still on the outside looking in.

The Buckeyes head to Crisler to take on #5-ranked Michigan on Tuesday night. A win here would likely catapult the Scarlet and Gray into the First Four, bumping out Florida. Ohio State plays 3 more ranked opponents in the regular season, only one of which is at home. I do not see the Buckeyes doing enough to earn an at-large bid come March.

Pac-12 Teams

I am combining 4 Pac-12 teams (Arizona, Arizona State, USC, and UCLA) because they have all played each other a lot in the past week or two. I am also throwing Washington into this mix because they are undefeated in Pac-12 play.

In my first prediction, I had the Devils as a 10-seed, meaning they are a couple of bad losses away from being pushed out of the field. I had Washington perched even more precariously as an 11-seed. Arizona was a very solid 6-seed. USC and UCLA were not even on my tournament radar.

For Arizona State, a Saturday loss at USC is not season-breaking but definitely does not help their case in the committee’s eyes. ASU is now on the outside looking in. If the Devils take care of business at home against in-state rival Arizona on Tuesday, they will remain in the field, probably with an 11-seed.

The USC loss is not terrible because the Trojans have been playing great basketball, winning 3 straight (UCLA, Arizona, ASU). Crushing USC’s chances of dancing is the fact they have beaten NO ONE good out of conference. USC has played Texas Tech, Nevada, TCU, Oklahoma – all resulting in losses.

The Trojans’ best wins have both been in the past week, Arizona and ASU. With no ranked teams on the remaining schedule, it will be extremely difficult for USC to make the 68-team field. On the bright side, the Trojans are currently second in the conference standings and in line to receive good matchups in the Pac-12 tournament. Winning that tourney will be the Trojans’ only chance to go dancing in March.

UCLA is in the same boat as USC. The Bruins just walloped Arizona on Saturday night but have not done enough to earn an at-large bid. The Pac-12 is just too weak for UCLA to add statements wins to their resume in February. This is another team that is NIT-bound, barring a conference tourney championship.

Arizona is a frustratingly inconsistent team. I had them as my Pac-12 tournament favorites and a 6-seed in the dance, partly under the assumption they would dominate the Pac-12 schedule. This week decimated the Wildcats’ hopes of a high seed. 20-point losses to the aforementioned Trojans and Bruins left me wondering if this team even belongs in the field.

I would drop Arizona all the way down to a low 9 or high 10-seed after these ugly performances. Upcoming games against ASU and top-dog Washington give the Wildcats great opportunities to jump back up.  Two more losses will bounce the Wildcats onto the wrong side of the bubble.

And then there is Washington. The Huskies have played 0 of the other 4 teams in this section thus far, but play them all in their next 4 games. A 7-0 conference record is good for a 2-game lead atop the Pac-12. I am now drastically altering my predictions. After this past week, I now deem Washington my favorite to win the Pac-12 tourney.

The Huskies have earned a 9-seed thus far, but could get all the way up to a 6 if they absolutely dominate their remaining schedule.

St John’s (SJU)

A team I placed in the First Four has just played themselves right out of an at-large bid. The Red Storm lost games to Butler and Georgetown this week, placing them on the outside looking in. There is still time to right the ship as St John’s has games against #2 Duke, #12 Marquette, and #18 Villanova on their remaining schedule.

Seton Hall

Another Big East team, I had the Pirates assigned to a 10-seed but a humiliating loss at the hands of Villanova does not hold up well under the selection committee’s famed “eye test”. Luckily for Seton Hall, Butler has lost 2 straight. These losses allow the Pirates to slide down into a low-11 or high-12-seed and bump Butler out of the field.

Alabama (BAMA)

The Tide had a rollercoaster week. They ran all over the visiting Rebels of Ole Miss on Tuesday before dropping a tough game at Baylor on Saturday. Alabama was then hurt indirectly by many of the week’s results.

Two of Alabama’s best wins, Arizona and Missouri, are starting to look a lot less impressive as the duo each dropped 2 games this week. This means the “good” section of Alabama’s resume is now trimmed to wins against Kentucky and Ole Miss. Will this be enough to make the committee overlook losses to Texas A&M, Georgia State, and Northeastern? The Tide’s inclusion in the field of 68 is very much in question after this week.

Texas

The Longhorns have also slid dangerously close to the cutoff but have only themselves to blame. Two road losses, at TCU and Georgia, bump Texas from a 10-seed to a low-11/high-12. With games against #9 Kansas and #24 Iowa State, the Longhorns have chances to solidify their tournament footing. One more loss will place Texas on the outside looking in for the time being.

Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)

A team on nobody’s tournament radar, UAB has won 4-straight C-USA games and is tied for 1st-place in the conference standings. There is zero chance the Blazers receive an at-large bid, but this recent run might be enough for me to change my C-USA tourney winner prediction from Marshall to UAB. My only concern is that the Blazers have some inexperience in their rotation.

Davidson

The Wildcats had a great week – taking care of business against George Washington and then sneaking past St. Louis on the road 54-53. I still have Davidson on the outside looking in, but they are one of the first teams in line to steal a spot should someone currently in the First Four start to struggle (cough … Texas … cough … Seton Hall).

A more realistic route to the dance for Davidson would be to win the A-10 conference tournament. Currently 2nd in the standings, the Wildcats have beaten the only team ahead of them – George Mason. Because they beat my A-10 pick, St Louis, I am now declaring Davidson my favorites to win the A-10 conference tourney and secure an automatic bid.

Creighton

I would say the chances that either Villanova or Marquette win the Big East conference tournament are between 85-95%. That means schools like Creighton, St John’s, Seton Hall, and Butler are going to need to earn an at-large bid. At the moment, the only team of those 4 I have receiving an invitation to play in March is Seton Hall – and they are barely in.

As much as I want to include my namesake into the field of 68, I do not see it happening yet. The Blue Jays have not done enough. They beat Clemson and held their own against Gonzaga and Marquette but are lacking that big signature win.

Road games at #18 Villanova and #12 Marquette are in Creighton’s future. Win both while avoiding major upsets and the Blue Jays are in. Win just one and it is iffy. Lose both and Creighton is NIT-bound.

Loyola CHI (Loyola)

The Ramblers are still atop the MVC but now appear mortal after being shellacked 70-35 in Springfield by the 9-11 Missouri St Bears. The Ramblers still have plenty going for them. Their biggest in-conference competition right now appears to be Drake. The Bulldogs have won 4 straight to elevate their MVC record to 5-3.

Because Loyola has beaten the three teams directly below them in the standings – Drake, Valparaiso, and Illinois St – I am sticking with the Ramblers as my MVC-tourney favorite.

Minnesota

With an extremely strong showing against #5 Michigan and a huge win on Sunday against #19 Iowa, the Gophers have boosted themselves from a First Four team to a low-9/high-10 seed. Helping to account for this massive jump are the struggles of many teams in front of Minnesota, including St Louis, Temple, Indiana, Seton Hall, ASU, Butler, Florida, and St John’s.

In my eyes, Minnesota has the ceiling of a low 7-seed. The Gophers are not a lock for the dance by any means. Ending the season on a sour note would still jeopardize their tournament chances. With #6 Michigan St, #5 Michigan, #13 Maryland, Purdue, Nebraska, and Wisconsin still on the remaining schedule, the Gophers have plenty of chances to add more big wins to their resume and solidify their spot in the bracket.

Auburn

I had the Tigers pegged as a 4-seed in my first prediction. Now mired in a 3-game dry spell, the Tigers are in danger of falling outside the top-25. Losing to Kentucky is excusable, but Auburn dropped games this week to two teams they were favored against – South Carolina and Mississippi St.

Auburn’s biggest wins this season have been against Washington and Arizona. Neither team strikes fear in the hearts of college hoops fans. Lacking a signature win, I would say that Auburn is now more deserving of a 6-seed.

Louisiana State (LSU)

LSU played themselves up from a 5 to a 4-seed this week. I had both Auburn and Ole Miss ranked ahead of LSU in my first bracket predictions, but I now see LSU as the best team of the trio.

The Tigers took care of business against Georgia and Missouri this week while Auburn and Ole Miss both dropped 2 contests.

Marquette (MARQ)

The Eagles are on a tear, winners of their last 7. I originally had Marquette penciled in the bracket as the highest 4-seed, but I now see them overtaking Buffalo for a 3-seed. Marquette could legitimately run the table were it not for one team – Villanova. With 2 games upcoming against the #18-ranked Wildcats plus clashes with Butler, St John’s, Creighton, and Seton Hall, Marquette could realistically ascend all the way to a low-2 seed or fall as far as a low-6/high-7.

In my first prediction, I had Villanova coming out on top of the Big East conference tourney. I am starting to entertain the thought of switching my pick to the Golden Eagles. Here is why.

Marquette relies heavily on junior guard Markus Howard. This stud is currently 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 24.6 ppg. Howard has scored 40+ points 3 times this season, with a high of 53 in an OT win in Omaha at Creighton. The junior’s play has been extremely consistent of late. Here are Howard’s numbers in Marquette’s previous 5 games, with the most recent on top.

Opponent (Result)	Pts	Ast	Reb	FT
@ Xavier (W 87-82)	31	4	5	7-8
vs DePaul (W 79-69)	23	9	3	15-15
vs Providence (W 79-68)	24	3	9	14-16
@ Georgetown (W 74-71)	0	0	0	0-0
vs Seton Hall (W 70-66)	26	6	6	9-9

So much to love here. Howard has a knack for getting to the line where he is shooting 91.0% from the this season – 12th in the nation. This is no fluke. Last season, Howard hit an amazing 93.8% of his free throws. Howard’s teammate Sam Hauser is right behind him in the national ranks this season, listed 13th in the nation with a percentage of 90.9%.

That Georgetown game in which Markus Howard barely played is what makes me so optimistic about this Eagles team. Injuring his back after 3 minutes of action, Howard had to come out, leaving his Eagles to do battle without him on the road.

Marquette knew they would need to replace 20-30 points of scoring, and Sam Hauser took matters into his own hands. A career-high 31 points with 8 rebounds for the junior forward carried the Eagles to a shorthanded road victory.

Markus Howard is a great player. He is better than anyone on Villanova’s roster. The Eagles are right to lean on him, but it is nice to know Marquette is a solid enough team to win games in tough environments without their best-scorer.

Maryland (MARY)

The Terrapins hurt their ranking this week by dropping two contests. No one expected Maryland to win at Michigan St, but losing at home to a 6-14 Illinois team is a huge hit against Maryland’s case to be a top-seed. This loss bumps the Terrapins from the top-ranked 5-seed to a low-6.

Wins against Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, and Wisconsin are nice, but Maryland will need to beat #5 Michigan one of the two times they play them and avoid major upsets to get back up into 4 or 5-seed territory.

Houston (HOU) & Oklahoma

I am lumping these two teams together because they are in nearly identical positions tournament seeding-wise. I had Houston as the top 6-seed while Oklahoma was the bottom 6-seed. Each of these squads took care of business this week, winning both of their games. Houston trounced East Carolina and Tulsa, as they should have, while Oklahoma defeated Oklahoma St and Vanderbilt.

Losses by Auburn, Iowa, Maryland, Ole Miss, and Arizona have paved the way for Houston and Oklahoma to move up into the 5s. Houston even has a very outside shot of grabbing that final 4-seed.

Kentucky

Many were mildly surprised when I declared Kentucky my pick to win the SEC tournament and grab a 1-seed. I believe that the Wildcats are playing better basketball than the conference’s current leader, Tennessee, and will have passed them up in the rankings come March.

Kentucky capped off a huge week by outlasting the #9-ranked Kansas Jayhawks at Rupp Arena in Lexington. This was the Wildcats’ third-straight game against a ranked opponent, but it did not faze them. Kentucky’s winning streak is now at 6 games.

I cannot wait for February 16 when Kentucky hosts Tennessee in their first meeting of the season.

Big Games This Week in College Basketball

Monday, January 28, 2019

• #14 Texas Tech hosts TCU. TTU is attempting to jump up to a 4-seed while TCU is trying to stay on the favorable side of the bubble.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

• Texas hosts #9 Kansas. Kansas attempts to stay in the running for a 1-seed by avoiding 2-straight losses. Texas needs a big win to get them back in the field of 68.
• #21 North Carolina St hosts #3 Virginia. A huge game for NCST’s NCAA tourney seeding. A win propels them into 6-seed territory while a loss puts them in the low-8/high-9 range.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

• Creighton hosts St John’s. Creighton needs this home win to remain on the bubble. A loss and they are likely left out come March. SJU needs a big road win to possibly put them back in the field of 68.
• Florida hosts #20 Ole Miss. The Gators need a win against a ranked opponent to get them back in the tournament picture.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

• #17 Houston hosts Temple. Given their weak conference schedule, Houston needs to run the table if they want a high seed in March. Temple is sitting precariously on the edge of the field of 68. This is the Owls’ last crack at a ranked team in the regular season. A win and their chances of dancing look pretty good. A loss and it gets very iffy.
• Arizona St hosts Arizona. Read my blurb above on these two. Each team could really use this win, but ASU is more desperate for it.

Friday, February 1, 2019

• #19 Iowa hosts #5 Michigan. The Wolverines are playing for a 1-seed in March. The Hawkeyes are fresh off back-to-back losses. Upsetting 19-1 Michigan would make last week a distant memory for Iowa.
• Wisconsin hosts #13 Maryland. The Badgers look to extend what could be a 4-game winning streak and avenge their loss from just 3 weeks prior. Maryland needs this big road win on their resume to offset a terrible loss to Illinois.

I will break down the weekend games and their playoff implications in a future article. Do not be afraid of placing some futures bets if you have a gut feeling about a certain team’s chances of winning their conference or making the dance. Have a great week, folks!