Is Now the Best Time to Gamble on Liverpool Winning the EPL?

Though there’s still a lot I have to learn about English football, I know this much – punters and pundits tend to overreact to things in the short term, and the syndrome affects the betting action.

If you want to see what collective madness and despair look like, fix your eye on supporters when a club vying for the Premiership crown suddenly goes cold on the attack.

Don’t think for a moment that the Premiership is a single-team race as of early March. But Mohamed Salah had better score a goal soon, or Spirit of Shankly devotees will croak from a lack of exhaling.

Red Sky at Morn

Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool side experienced its 3^rd 0-0 drawn result in 4 matches on Sunday against Everton, succeeding scoreless draws with Bayern Munich and Manchester United since February 19^th. The Reds have played methodical football while paired against opponents who, in the end result, weren’t all that keen on selling-out to try for 3 points.

Bayern Munich and Liverpool were not playing for the typical league points at Anfield, of course, but in the 1^st leg of a Round-of-16 tie in which the Germans could make the most of a classic strategy by aiming for a draw in the maiden 90+ minutes.

The Reds’ next opponent, Man United, had burned a midwinter streak through Europe that predictably slowed in February. The Red Devils aim to finish in the Premiership’s top 4 clubs and return to the Champions League, but in the meantime the side’s last best shot at glory is in the FA Cup. The 0-0 finish was a downer for Liverpool.

Toffees took the pitch at Goodison Park in a 4-4-1-1 formation, determined to help keeper Jordan Pickford earn a clean sheet. Richarlison didn’t materialize until the 30^th minute. Liverpool easily thwarted any long-ball attempts and would-be counters, allowing Toffees a dreadful 62% passing percentage. But the Reds’ passing was not all that sharp either, as the squad only managed 10 shot attempts in a physical and at-times awkward contest.

The sour result leaves Liverpool a point behind Manchester City in the domestic race, 70 points to 71, after 29 of 38 matches. But the betting odds do not look like those of a race in which a club is 1 point behind another.

BetOnline has the Reds at almost 2-to-1 payoff odds to claim the Premier League title in spring.

Manchester City sits at (-275) odds to triumph. (-275) is no trifle of a number. It is very possible for a humble college or professional club to last full seasons without seeing (-275) on a moneyline.

Blinding City Lights

Footy gamblers are examining form as much as they’re handicapping the point race and the remaining chances for City and Liverpool to stack up easy 3s against bottom-half clubs.

There will not be another meeting between the pair this season. The current consensus handicap is that whenever the top teams run into stubborn backlines, the Citizens are more reliable in breaking through with watershed tallies.

Do the results bear that out?

Penalties were needed for the Sky Blues to get past Chelsea, a club they had trampled by an amazing 6 goals just a fortnight prior, in the Carabao Cup final on 2/24.

Just so we’re clear, the Cookie Monster apparently comments on this highlight reel at about the :30 mark, and later seems to receive a text message.

Man City’s UEFA Round-of-16 meeting isn’t going as well as planned, either – the Citizens coughed up 2 early goals and ended up taking a red card, needing a late explosion from Leroy Sané and Raheem Sterling to overcome an 85^th-minute deficit and take a slim lead into the 2^nd leg.

City was dominant when defending against Cherries last weekend. The 1-0 result negates the fact that AFC Bournemouth attempted 0 shots – attempted 0 shots – and possessed the ball for only 18% of the 90+ minutes. Credit goes to striker Sergio Agüero and other world-renowned forwards who know how to retreat swiftly and help out an elite backline.

But the Sky Blues have scored exactly 1 – count it – 1 non-penalty goal in 3 matches vs Premiership sides, a tally from Riyad Mahrez that the midfielder himself called lucky. That is not the look of a team ready to run away with a domestic league title.

Crucial Calendars

The Reds can effortlessly pull out of their attacking misery and challenge City with a streak of wins. It won’t happen if they’re forced into anxious circumstances over the next quartet of Matchdays. I’m liking what I see in the remaining schedule.

Liverpool will host Burnley on Sunday, March 10^th. The Clarets are under pressure to avoid relegation for next season, giving the visitors a lot to play for but few paths to success. Burnley has allowed 5 goals and scored 1 in its 2 most recent matches vs Crystal Palace and Newcastle.

After that, the Reds will travel to Munich for a match that won’t influence the Premier League race, then visit Fulham and host Spurs at Anfield.

In the meantime, City will have its challenges in a fast-paced and volatile EPL. The Sky Blues must face Tottenham, Palace, United, Leicester City, and a frantic Cardiff City side over the final nonet of meetings.

Last week, we red-flagged Bayern’s early to-advance line against Liverpool, an overly-long number on the favored Bavarians hidden in MyBookie’s markets for the Champions League.

But in the Premier League? I’m not counting the Reds out. There will be more unpredictable upset bids, plenty of drama, and injuries to City and Liverpool over the final 9 matches.

I’d take either squad at (+190). My advance is to take the wager on Liverpool while it’s there. It only takes a single poor performance from Manchester City to turn the betting line on its head.