It’s Time to Look at the 2023 MLB Playoff Picture

The 2023 MLB season is nearing the mid-way point. It’s around this time where it begins to be appropriate to talk playoffs. There are a couple of teams (Braves, Rays) with such commanding leads that it’s hard to imagine them not in the postseason. Likewise, a few clubs (Royals, A’s) are so far back they’re practically already eliminated.

Above is a glance at the MLB postseason bracket if the season were to end right now. Below, we’re going to dig into the MLB playoff picture and supports our thoughts and with quantitative data – much of which comes from FiveThirtyEight.

FiveThirtyEight is awesome for stat heads. Their MLB prediction tools are fun to play around with and extremely insightful. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation feature which runs the end of the season 100,000 times and gives the percentages that a given team makes the playoffs, wins their division, or wins the World Series.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams (even the A’s) are still mathematically alive with well over 100 games to go and will be getting a break down. Let’s get started!

American League

Here is the American League side of the MLB playoff bracket if the 2023 season ended today.

Wow, who saw some of these matchups coming when the season first began? The Rays have been out in front of the East for so long now that we’re used to it, but understand that Tampa was thought to be a 2nd or 3rd-place team entering the season.

 

By far, the biggest surprise in the American League postseason bracket is the absence of the Houston Astros. Houston has appeared in the World Series in 4 of the past 6 years and in the American League Championship Series in each of the past 6 seasons.

Have they been controversial? Absolutely. But no one can deny that the Astros have built a dynasty and are the most successful team in baseball over the past decade.

Could this be the season in which the dynasty comes to an end? The Texas Rangers are currently leading the division by 5 games over 2nd-place Los Angeles and an additional half a game over Houston. Texas has not regressed after a fast start like many thought they would. If anything, they’ve gotten stronger.

The Rangers’ key strength is their league-leading offense which is putting up 6.1 runs per game. They’re not a one dimensional team, however, as their pitching staff ranks 7th in team ERA (3.79). This is without the services of 2-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom for most of the season.

Given all of the money that the Rangers have spent in MLB free agency lately, it is rational to assume that the Rangers could compete with the Astros this season, but most are surprised to see the Angels hanging in there through mid-June.

Despite rostering 2 of the greatest players the game has ever seen, the Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. This is such a shame, especially for a team that resides in the second-largest market in America and is an enticing destination for free agents. They could be so dominant if they went for it.

The future of the Angels franchise hinges on this season. Win, and they might keep Shohei Ohtani. Fail to make the playoffs and Ohtani is surely gone.

American League Playoff and World Series Equities

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays 51-25

538 Playoff%: 98%

538 Division Title%: 75%

538 Championship%: 16%. Despite having the best record in baseball for the entire season, the oddsmakers have seemed to like both the Dodgers and Braves more than Tampa. FiveThirtyEight gives the Rays the 2nd-most World Series equity (behind Atlanta) while FanDuel Sportsbook lists Atlanta (+370) with shorter championships odds than Tampa (+450).

Baltimore Orioles 45-27

538 Playoff%: 57%. Some were predicting a major collapse for Baltimore in 2023 following a solid 2022 campaign. Oddsmakers projected just 76.5 wins for Baltimore this year after winning 83 in 2022.

The O’s are relying on a lot of young talent this year (Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) so we sort of understand the doubt, but c’mon oddsmakers. You were way off, here. The O’s are on pace for 101 wins and stand just 4 games behind the best team in baseball – Tampa.

538 Division Title%: 8%

538 Championship%: 2%. At the beginning of the season, oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook gave Baltimore (+10000) odds to win their first World Series since 1983. Today, those odds are listed at (+3500) – a 65% reduction.

New York Yankees 40-33

538 Playoff%: 68%. The Pinstripers aren’t setting the league on fire, but they’re hanging in there and would snag the 6th seed if the season ended today. This is rather impressive as New York has dealt with some serious injury issues this year.

Their star Aaron Judge has spent two separate stints on the IL while their prized incoming pitcher – Carlos Rodon – has yet to throw a single pitch.

538 Division Title%: 10%

538 Championship%: 6%. The oddsmakers (and FiveThirtyEight) still really believe New York is a team built for October. Only the Tampa Bay Rays hold more World Series equity than New York among AL East teams. FanDuel Sportsbook gives the Yankees (+1600) odds to win the 2023 World Series – 2nd-shortest in the East.

Toronto Blue Jays 40-35

538 Playoff%: 50%

538 Division Title%: 5%

538 Championship%: 4%. FiveThirtyEight gives Toronto the 3rd-most championship equity in the loaded AL East division. Likewise, the FanDuel Sportsbook oddsmakers have the Jays (+2500) to win the 2023 World Series – the 3rd-shortest odds in the division.

Boston Red Sox 39-34

538 Playoff%: 35%. Poor Sox. This same record in other divisions (namely the two Centrals) would generate loads of postseason equity, but the Red Sox are stuck at the bottom of the ultra-competitive AL East.

538 Division Title%: 2%. This massive discrepancy between playoff and divisional equity indicates Boston’s most-likely path to the postseason is through the Wild Card. There are 3 of them now.

538 Championship%: 2%. What a nod from the simulation at FiveThirtyEight. Even though Boston is unlikely to reach the postseason, the system recognizes that the Red Sox have the talent to go all the way should they sneak in.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins 36-38

538 Playoff%: 52%. The relative strengths of divisions always goes in cycles, but folks are extremely envious of the AL Central right now. The Twins would get the 3rd seed if the season ended today and host a playoff series with a sub-.500 record. All 5 of the teams in the AL East would currently be leading the AL Central.

538 Division Title%: 50%. Note that Minnesota’s divisional equity is almost the same as their total postseason equity. This means they’re probably not getting a Wild Card. It’s division title or bust for the Twins.

538 Championship%: 2%. Minnesota’s decent championship equity does not come from the strength of their roster but rather from their relatively high chances of making the playoffs and the home-field advantage they’d be guaranteed once there.

Cleveland Guardians 34-38

538 Playoff%: 42%. The Guardians are off to such a slow start and yet are still well within striking distance of Minnesota.

538 Division Title%: 41%

538 Championship%: 2%. Once again, the Guardians are given a decent chunk of championship equity by the simulation mostly because of their relatively easy potential path.

Detroit Tigers 31-41

538 Playoff%: 2%

538 Division Title%: 2%

538 Championship%: <1%

Chicago White Sox 32-43

538 Playoff%: 8%

538 Division Title%: 8%

538 Championship%: <1%

Kansas City Royals 20-53

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

AL West

Texas Rangers 44-28

538 Playoff%: 74%

538 Division Title%: 49%. Here’s those Rangers we were talking about earlier. They rank top-10 in most offensive and defensive categories. They’re legit. FiveThirtyEight has the division race as a tossup between Texas and the field. However, the oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook list Texas as pretty big division faves (-165).

538 Championship%: 6%

Los Angeles Angels 41-34

538 Playoff%: 39%

538 Division Title%: 15%

538 Championship%: 2%

Houston Astros 40-34

538 Playoff%: 60%

538 Division Title%: 32%

538 Championship%: 7%. This has not been a great start to the season for Houston by any means, but they’re still in solid shape. They’re over .500, they’re only 5.5 games of the division, and both the FanDuel oddsmakers and the FiveThirtyEight simulation believe in them. They’re getting more championship equity than the Rangers right now.

Seattle Mariners 35-36

538 Playoff%: 14%

538 Division Title%: 4%

538 Championship%: <1%

Oakland Athletics 19-55

538 Playoff%: <1%. The A’s are currently on pace for between 41 and 42 wins. The all-time worst record in MLB history belongs to the Cleveland Spiders (20-134) in 1899. The worst modern-era record is the expansion Mets (40-120) in 1962.

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

National League

Here is the National League side of the MLB playoff bracket if the 2023 season ended today.

There are surprises aplenty on the NL side of the bracket, as well. The Atlanta Braves at number one is probably the only one of the seatings at the publics are coming.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are you currently 2.5 games up on 2nd Pl., San Francisco and then additional game ahead of the 3rd Pl., Dodgers.

This sink the Los Angeles Dodgers all the way down to the 6 seed. At The beginning of the year, the Dodgers were the favorites to win the National League and reach their 4th World Series in 7 years.

This would set up a potential best of three series in Cincinnati. Rogers just visited Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago and dropped two out of three. Perhaps this was foreshadowing for a changing of the guard in the National League.

Most would agree that the biggest shark in the National League standings right now is the Miami Marlins ahead of both the Mets and Phillies.

New York Mets are spending more money in 2023 than any MLB team ever has before, and they stink. New York is currently five games under 500. In 13 games back of Atlanta for tops in the NL East. The Mets are six games back of the Dodgers for the last wildcard spot with several teams in between. That’s a steep deficit already by mid June.

Pretty much 100% of baseball fans would have said that if the Mets were going to struggle in 2023 it would be the Phillies to pick up the slack. The Phillies are the reigning national champion and have an absolutely loaded roster. They’re not doing so hot either though, and our 3.5 games behind the Marlins today, despite winning seven of their last 10.

National League Playoff and World Series Equities

NL East

Atlanta Braves 47-26

538 Playoff%: 99%

538 Division Title%: 90%

538 Championship%: 19%. Atlanta is destroying the relatively weak competition in the NL East and is eyeing a 2nd World Series title in 3 years. 19% is the most playoff equity the FiveThirtyEight simulation is assigning to any team. FanDuel Sportsbook also lists the Braves as World Series betting favorites at (+370) odds.

Miami Marlins 42-32

538 Playoff%: 48%. Out of nowhere, the Marlins have risen up the NL standings to occupy a high spot in the Wild Card chase. You’ll notice the Marlins have almost no divisional equity as they’re still 5.5 games back of Atlanta despite playing their best ball of the season.

It’s Wild Card or bust for the Marlins this year, meaning their biggest threats are the Phillies, Mets, Giants, Dodgers, and Padres. Not the Braves.

538 Division Title%: 4%

538 Championship%: 1%

Philadelphia Phillies 38-35

538 Playoff%: 50%. The Phillies hold slightly more postseason equity than Miami despite a 3.5-game deficit in the NL East standings. The FiveThirtyEight simulation recognizes the gap in talent between the Philly and Miami rosters and makes the Phils more likely to make the playoffs and win the 2023 World Series.

538 Division Title%: 5%

538 Championship%: 3%. FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB oddsmakers agree that the Phillies are more likely to win the 2023 World Series than the Marlins, giving the Phils (+3200) odds to Miami’s (+8000).

New York Mets 33-39

538 Playoff%: 24%. What does 360 million dollars get you? 24% playoff equity. The Mets boast the highest payroll in league history and are currently wetting the bed and stuck in 4th place in the East.

538 Division Title%: 1%

538 Championship%: 2%

Washington Nationals 27-44

538 Playoff%: <1%. At least the return from the Juan Soto trade (Gore, Abrams) looks pretty good.

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds 39-35

538 Playoff%: 25%

538 Division Title%: 20%. The Cincinnati Reds have won 11 games in a row and hold a slim lead in the most crowded division in baseball. None of the teams in the NL Central are particularly good, but they’re all bunched up. Just 4 games separate the first-place Reds from the 4th-place Pirates.

We expected the Brewers and Cardinals to be competing for this division at the beginning of the year, but the Reds are the only team who look like they want it right now.

538 Championship%: <1%. Even if Cincinnati does manage to win the Central, the computer doesn’t think they have what it takes to make it very far in the postseason. The current standings mean Cincinnati (3 seed) would battle the Dodgers (6 seed) in the first round.

Milwaukee Brewers 38-35

538 Playoff%: 55%

538 Division Title%: 49%. The Brewers look decent, but they’ve been woefully inconsistent in 2023. Take note that Milwaukee’s divisional equity is almost the same as their total playoff equity. Whichever team wins the NL Central will have a nice ride in the postseason. The 2nd-place team will be going home early. None of the Wild Cards will be coming out of the NL Central … probably.

538 Championship%: 2%

Chicago Cubs 35-38

538 Playoff%: 26%

538 Division Title%: 21%

538 Championship%: <1%

Pittsburgh Pirates 34-38

538 Playoff%: 4%

538 Division Title%: 3%

538 Championship%: <1%

St Louis Cardinals 30-43

538 Playoff%: 9%

538 Division Title%: 7%

538 Championship%: <1%

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks 44-30

538 Playoff%: 60%. The Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers in a couple of early-season series and we dismissed it as an inconsequential April fluke. The longer the DBacks continue winning, though, the more likely it becomes that Arizona is simply the better team.

This season reminds us of the 2021 season in which the Giants won 107 games and kept pace over the Dodgers the entire year. We kept expecting San Fran to fall off and they kept refusing. Can the Diamondbacks win 100+ games and take the division? The last time Arizona won 100 games was in 1999 when they were wearing vests.

538 Division Title%: 19%

538 Championship%: 2%

San Francisco Giants 41-32

538 Playoff%: 71%. We’re all so focused on whether Arizona can maintain their lead over LA that most are totally unaware that the Giants have also passed up the Dodgers in the NL West standings.

San Fran’s roster is pretty talented and many had them as a dark horse to win the NL West this year instead of Arizona.

538 Division Title%: 26%

538 Championship%: 5%

Los Angeles Dodgers 40-33

538 Playoff%: 85%. They’re in 3rd place but no one is too worried. The computer simulations at FiveThirtyEight still give LA an excellent shot at reaching the postseason.

538 Division Title%: 45%

538 Championship%: 10%. The Dodgers’ 10% championship equity is the 3rd-most in the entire MLB, despite the fact they’re in 3rd place right now. The MLB oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook feel similarly, giving the Dodgers (+470) odds to win the 2023 World Series – the 3rd-shortest in baseball behind Atlanta and Tampa.

San Diego Padres 35-38

538 Playoff%: 44%. So much wasted potential. Still time to get hot, though.

538 Division Title%: 10%

538 Championship%: 4%

Colorado Rockies 29-47

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%