Jaguars Stun Chargers on Wild Card Saturday – Where Did the Chargers Go Wrong?

Our sports news writer Nikola briefly recapped Saturday night’s 31-30 win by Jacksonville over the Chargers, but this instant classic deserves a deeper dive. The Jaguars pulled off the 3rd-largest comeback in NFL playoffs history with a stat line that looks made up.

Pretend you know nothing about how this game unfolded – just the 31-30 final score in favor of Jacksonville. Would you believe Trevor Lawrence threw 4 picks and Herbert had none? Would you believe the Chargers once led 27-0?

This game was unique, and we need to talk about it in depth.

History was Made in Jacksonville Saturday Night … Several Times

So many rare or unprecedented things happened in Saturday night’s Chargers-Jaguars matchup. It’s hard to decide where to start. I’ll begin by throwing this out there: Saturday’s game was only the 3rd playoff game in NFL history in which a team scored at least 30 points, forced at least 1 turnover, never turned the ball over themselves and still lost.

Winning the turnover battle so often seals the deal in the NFL playoffs. Teams are all so good this time of year that having a +2 or even just a +1 turnover margin will give you a greater-than-50% shot at winning the game.

It is rare at any point in the season, but certainly in the postseason, for a team at a turnover deficit to win the game. If that deficit balloons to multiple turnovers, forget about it! NFL playoff teams throughout history winning the turnover game by 2 or more are about 90% to get the job done.

This is especially true when the other team did not force any turnovers. You could see how a team would be able to stay in the game with fewer turnovers if their turnovers became defensive touchdowns. Or maybe came right at the goal line. Something like that.

Jacksonville didn’t turn over LA once. Not once! Also, the Jags didn’t just lose the turnover battle by 1. They didn’t just lose by 2. They lost by 5! Only the 2018 Chiefs and the 1977 Baltimore Colts can relate to Saturday’s Chargers loss. These were the other 2 teams to lose a playoff game in this fashion.

New England beat Kansas City 37-31 in overtime of a 2019 AFC Divisional Round game despite losing the turnover battle 2-0. The Oakland Raiders beat Baltimore by the exact same score in double overtime back in a 1977 Divisional Round contest. The Raiders lost the turnover battle 4–0.

Open our search up to regular season games also and we see that the 2022 Chargers are the 47th team all time to score 30, never turn it over, force a turnover and lose.

1,639 teams have done exactly what the Chargers did on Saturday and only 47 lost. That’s less than 3%. This seems pretty unlikely. It is, and amazingly, this first stat barely scratches the surface of how devastating this loss was for the Chargers. We can go much deeper with our statistical dive.

Jacksonville Had 5 Turnovers, the Chargers Had None

The Chargers didn’t just have the 1 takeaway. They had 5. Yes, the Chargers won the turnover battle 5–0 and still lost the game.

Only 175 teams in history (both regular season and playoffs) have scored at least 30 points, forced 5 turnovers and never turned it over themselves. All but 3 have won. That’s 1.7%.

Most folks reading this will not remember the last time a loss like this occurred. You have to go all the way back to Week 3 of the 1970 NFL season when the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets 34–31 despite losing the turnover battle 5–0.

Nine years prior, in Week 3 of the 1961 season, the Baltimore Colts beat the Minnesota Vikings 34–33 despite losing the turnover battle 5–0.

There was also a Massive Comeback as the Jaguars Erased a 27-Point Deficit

Bear in mind we haven’t even touched on what many consider to be the most fascinating aspect of Jacksonville’s win – the “little caveat” that the Chargers held a 27-0 lead at one point in the 2nd quarter.

This gives LA the distinction of orchestrating the 3rd-largest blown lead ever in the NFL postseason. The Houston Oilers blew a 32-point lead to Buffalo in 1993 and the Chiefs squandered a 28-point advantage to Indianapolis in 2014. Both also occurred in the Wild Card Round.

The Chargers newly-blown 27-point lead slides the Falcons’ epic 28-3 collapse in Super Bowl LI down to the 4th-largest blown playoff lead of all time.

It’s mind blowing. How does a loss like this happen? How would the Jaguars even have enough time to comeback from 27 down without the aid of takeaways? In short, bad strategy by the Chargers. 

It takes a lot more than just a couple of mistakes, though, which is why it’s so incredibly rare for a game like this to unfold. Let’s take a look at ESPN’s win probabilities throughout the night to get a better understanding of exactly where the Chargers went wrong and how the Jags were able to claw back.

Charting ESPN Win Probabilities Throughout the Game

The gray horizontal line toward the top of the chart is the 90% win probability line for the Chargers. The majority of the game was played with the Chargers being 90% favorites. That huge chunk of time from 10:25 in the 2nd quarter till 5:11 in the 3rd quarter where LAC is 90% favorites constitutes over one-third of the game.

In total, the Chargers were greater than 90% favorites to win for 30:25 of game time. The Jacksonville Jaguars, in contrast, were only favored at all for 2:36 of game time – 37 seconds at the beginning and 1:59 at the end.

LA first became a 90% favorite with 10:25 to go in the 2nd quarter as Justin Herbert connected with Keenan Allen over the middle for 23 yards to pick up a 3rd and 11. The Chargers already led 17-0 at this point. This 3rd-down conversion put them deep into Jags territory and would set up their 4th TD of the game.

By this juncture, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence had already thrown 2 interceptions. The Jags’ only non-turnover possession to this point was a punt after a 1-yard 3-and-out series. Somehow, you had the feeling that Jacksonville was fortunate to “only” trail by 24.

This sentiment definitely rang true after a muffed punt set the Chargers up with their best field position of the game and the Jags were able to force a field goal to keep the deficit … um … manageable (I guess) at 27 points.

It could have easily been 35-0 had the Chargers punched it in twice, but the Jags weren’t lying down defensively – showing great effort despite staring a 4-touchdown deficit in the face.

Effort schmeffort. The Jags were still down 27-0. That’s a horrible jam to find yourself in – one that effort alone is not going to solve. Jacksonville was a dead man walking through most of the game before finally giving themselves a double-digit chance of winning with 5:11 remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Jags pulled their expected win probability up to 10.2% after scoring their 2nd touchdown of the day to cut the deficit to 27-14.

The Jaguars were all on the prowl (no Luda), but LA was still sitting pretty. 13-point lead and the ball late in the 3rd quarter. They’d take that 100 out of 100 times. The 89.8% win probability is still ultra desirable. At this moment, it sure didn’t feel like Jacksonville was “right there,” after cutting the lead to 27-14. There was still too much ground to make up for anyone to smell a comeback.

The Chargers would kick a field goal on the ensuing possession – pushing the lead back up to 16 points and reclaiming their 90%-win-probability stranglehold on the game. Little did they know, their offense would go the remaining 20:11 scoreless, which is exactly what Jacksonville needed to pull off a thrilling 1-point win.

Below, we map out some of the key inflection points of the game.

The Vegas oddsmakers had the Chargers as 2-point favorites in this one, but the ESPN analytical models actually favored Jacksonville about 60-40. This advantage lasted all of 37 seconds, which is the exact amount of game time it took for Trevor Lawrence to throw an interception – his 1st of 4 on the night.

The Chargers put their foot down right on Jacksonville’s neck and began to press harder and harder as the lead swelled to 14 points, then 17, then 24. Trevor Lawrence was 4 picks deep – looking completely overwhelmed.

You ever play an old Madden game on All-Madden difficulty? The CPU gets instant pressure, the defenders make better breaks on the ball than your receivers and you’re soon relegated to chucking 40-yard prayers downfield with 2 tailbacks chipping because it’s 3rd and 30 and both D-ends are in your backfield within 1 second of the snap.

This was Jacksonville Saturday night through a quarter and a half. To a T. Already down 24-0, the Jags finally forced their 2nd punt of the night late in the 1st quarter. All right. This is something. Take it down and score. DOINK!

Calling it a “muffed punt” is not fair, but Jags gunner Chris Claybrooks had the kick smack off his helmet as a frantic scrambled ensued for the football.

Some Chargers dude with a really really long last name fell on it at the 6 yard line. Already down 24 and now you basically hand them another touchdown. The Chargers’ win probability shot up to 98.5% at this point. They were about to go up 31-0 and their opponents looked helpless. No, worse than helpless.

The Turning Point for Jackonville with 4:25 to go in the 2nd Quarter

With no big takeaways to point to, it is difficult to place your finger on the exact moment things started to turn for the Jags. Forcing the field goal from LA after that muffed punt kept Jacksonville in it.

Notice how the Chargers’ win probability slowly trickles down after they were forced to settle for that field goal. Never again past that point were the Chargers ever so much of a lock to win. Surrendering 3 points to the opposing offense is still technically a bad outcome, but this was the goal-line stand of the season for the Jags. The lead was “only” 27-0. It could have easily been worse.

There were no sharp declines in win probability for LA through the 2nd and 3rd quarters – just a slow leak. A gentle downward slope. Barely even noticeable. The lead shrinks to 27-14? No biggie. The Jags pull to within 10 points (30-20) late in the 3rd? We’re good, bro.

The Jaguars Pull too Close for Comfort Inside of 6 Minutes in the 4th Quarter

The second-largest momentum shift in the game came with 5:35 to go in the 4th when Lawrence hit Christian Kirk for a 9-yard touchdown pass – Lawrence’s 4th TD of the game to offset his 4 picks.

Let’s put the win probabilities chart in here again so you don’t have to do so much scrolling.

See how the Chargers win probability fell from the 80s down to 58% when Jacksonville closed the gap to 2 points? This is when it really began to get scary for Chargers fans. Still though, they are favored to win the game at this point. 58% is good. LA has a 2-point lead and the ball.

The story of the second half – the Chargers do nothing with their possession and punt it back to Jacksonville. LA netted 3 points total across their final 5 possessions of the football game.

The Chargers punt with 3:09 to go in the game. After dominating and being favored by the ESPN analytics for 56:02 of game time, things were about to swing fully in the Jags’ favor.

Trevor Lawrence Leads a Game-Winning Field Goal Drive in his First-Ever NFL Playoff Game

Starting from their own 21 with 3:09 on the clock, the Jags are still slight dogs to get into field goal range and win the game. 

After all, Trevor Lawrence is basically still a rookie after not progressing at all under Urban Meyer and 23-year-old kicker Riley Patterson was good, not great, in 2022. He missed 4 times from 40+ in 16 attempts this season. He also missed once from inside 40 and shanked an extra point. He is far from automatic.

Lawrence wasn’t throwing a pick on this drive. After picking up a quick first down, Lawrence scrambled for 8 yards – getting to the Jacksonville 41 and setting up a 2nd and short. It was it this moment that the ESPN analytics favored the Jags. With over 2 minutes remaining, the clock was a nonfactor and Jacksonville was about 25-30 more yards from field goal range.

Oh no! Still between the 40s and too far to consider a field goal, the Jags faced a 4th and 1 for their playoff lives. The win probability swung back in favor of Los Angeles. One stop ends this would-be comeback in its tracks and keeps the Chargers out of the losers side of the record books.

Travis. Etienne. 25. Yards.

The Jags fake the sneak and instead give it to Etienne on the off-tackle who uses his speed to dash down the right sideline getting all the way to the Chargers 16 yard line.

It was field goal time. Patterson just sneaks it inside the right upright. Game over. Comeback complete. Jaguars win probability? 100%!

The Fallout for Chargers Head Coach Brandon Staley

2nd-year Chargers head man Brandon Staley completely mismanaged his team’s 27-0 lead and is drawing criticism from all the talking heads after the 3rd-worst collapse in NFL playoffs history.

The answer to how the Jaguars had enough time to construct a 27-point comeback without the aid of a single Takeaway is that the Chargers failed miserably at running clock from the end of the 2nd quarter on.

The Chargers final 3 possessions of the first half took 1:37, 0:49 and 1:22 of game time, respectively – netting the Bolts 3 points.

In the 2nd half, the Chargers held the ball for possessions lasting 2:32, 2:13, 6:57 and 2:16. Again, these netted another 3 points.

Apart from the near-7-minute drive in the 4th quarter which ended in a missed field goal, the Chargers’ final 7 possessions were riddled with clock-stopping incomplete passes and lasting no more than 2 and a half minutes.

Los Angeles’ prime running back, 27-year-old Austin Ekeler, was used very sparingly in the second half. Between his 4.5 yards per carry and over 700 yards receiving out of the backfield in 2022, Ekeler is a 1,600-yard back. Guess how many touches this 1,600-yard back got in the 2nd half of a playoff game with a large lead? 6.

Avoiding the run has been Brandon Staley’s secret sauce all season long. The Chargers rank 28th in the league in rush attempts per game with 23.7.

Saturday night in a game in which they led by multiple touchdowns since the first quarter, the Chargers only ran the ball 23 times – right at their season average.

In comparison, the Jaguars, who had every incentive to air it out for 3 quarters, ran the ball 21 times. That’s only 2 fewer rushing attempts for the team down by 27.

Trevor Lawrence threw the ball 47 times Saturday night. This high number is understandable as his team was trailing for about 58 minutes of the game. Justin Herbert, whose team was winning for about 58 minutes of game time, threw 43 passes.

In the second half of the game, when all the Chargers were trying to do was pick up a few first downs and kill the clock, Justin Herbert threw 10 incomplete passes.

The play clock is 40 seconds long. That’s 400 seconds – or 6 minutes and 40 seconds – of game clock that the Chargers missed out on running. LA still led by 10 points with 6:40 to go in the game. It was the Chargers inexplicable devotion to the passing game which allowed the Jacksonville comeback.

Brandon Staley is to blame. Did he put his job in jeopardy?

Rex Ryan Goes Off on Chargers Coach Brandon Staley

Former NFL head coach Rex Ryan had a lot to say about Staley’s play calling during ESPN’s postgame Wild Card Weekend coverage, calling it “reckless” and insinuating that Staley doesn’t deserve to have the reins of an NFL team after this display of ineptitude.

Following some tense weekend front office meetings in Los Angeles, the Chargers decided to keep Staley on board and instead fired his offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and quarterbacks coach Shane Day.

Staley is lucky to keep job after each of his first 2 NFL seasons have ended in heavily-scrutinized, season-ending losses.

The Jaguars move on to face Kansas City in the AFC Divisional Round. The Jags travel to Arrowhead as 8-point underdogs after losing there 27-17 back in Week 10.