Kentucky at Texas A&M: Badly Mispriced ML is Opportunity for CFB Bettors

In my novel, ahem, article The Path to Sports Betting Lies in Roads Less Traveled for Wagerbop, I detail how the recreational bettor can look at the betting boards every day, intending to bet only every so often – maybe once per week tops. When the number of bets considered goes up, and the number of bets placed goes down, the chances of playing the very best lines in exactly the right way can go off the charts.

For instance, the craziest mispriced moneylines and point spreads usually make you double-check them. Wait, are those really the odds? No, no. It’s a mistake. It’s a joke. Let’s call the bookie, maybe.

As for Kentucky at Texas A&M this weekend, I made my roommate look at the betting site to make sure I wasn’t seeing things.

Then I made him look one final time. Just to be safe.

The Kentucky Wildcats, owners of (statistically and probably indeed) one of the top 5 defenses in all of college football, are 5-0. They have won 3 straight SEC games. The offense has a great running back, and the team appears to be a buzz-saw.

It also appears to be – rubs eyes – a moneyline underdog against the 3-2 Aggies at Kyle Field.

Texas A&M is a (-6) point spread favorite at home against the 13th-ranked ‘Cats. College football bookies have the visitors at (+190) on the moneyline compared to a big old whopping (-220) to cement the hosts as Vegas favorites.

The Over/Under is (51), a cautious number in a sense, yet higher than some SEC scrums will turn out to be wagered on this season.

UK’s senior LB Josh Allen (no relation to the Buffalo Bills QB) is tied for 3rd in the FBS with 6.0 sacks, 5.0 of which came against SEC opponents. Junior running back Benny Snell Jr. is 4th in the nation with 639 rushing yards.

Kentucky many not be a high flying team on offense, but that doesn’t make them any less exciting to the loyal fans in blue. UK is specializing in game control, led by a terrific defense and the steady running game. 5 foes have been forced to play Wildcat football.

What’s really mystifying about the odds isn’t that Texas A&M is a crap team – the Aggies nearly took down Clemson at home. Instead, it’s how the visitors might be under-valued by bookies and gamblers who overlook extremely recent history.

Florida showed how good it can be on Saturday. Guess who went to The Swamp (TM) and beat them? Kentucky won on the road against the Gators by the capital score of 27-16, rushing for over 300 yards. Since the UK loss, the Gators are 3-0, outscoring opponents 108-37. The more Florida wins, the better Kentucky looks.

Defensively, it all starts with Allen. His ability to be disruptive from anywhere along the defensive front opens up things in ways never before-seen on Kentucky Bluegrass. Matt Miller’s latest NFL Draft board ranks Allen as the 28th best NFL prospect in college football.

Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has described Allen as “dominant” and the best outside rusher he’s ever coached. The crushing LB plays on a defense for which 5 players have interceptions and 8 more have defended passes. It’s not just a dominant front-7.

We’ve seen defenses go way up and down this season, defending the run well on one Saturday and letting runners through the turnstiles this week. What are the chances that A&M could over-achieve at home once again and take down the Wildcats as Vegas expects?

Jimbo Fisher’s new Aggie squad is shaping up to look like an SEC team coached by Jimbo Fisher. That’s the good news, but there have also been some growing pains. The team is scoring 53.5 points per game against non-P5 opponents, but in 3 games against Power-5 teams the unit is only scoring 24.3 points. Sophomore QB Kellen Mond has looked both electric and confused at times.

Against Clemson, Mond threw for 430 yards and 3 scores, yet in last week’s win over Arkansas, he threw for only 201 yards and 2 costly interceptions. His play is still a significant improvement over his performance last year – in 5 games, he’s thrown for nearly as many yards as he did in 10 games last season. This team is coming along under Fisher.

A&M’s record (3-2, 1-1 in SEC play) isn’t great, but their play speaks more highly of them than the standings indicate. The Aggies’ 2 losses come to Clemson and Alabama, at the time the #2 and #1 teams in the country. Alabama is still unbeaten and at #1.

Against Clemson, the Aggies rallied back from 28-13, scoring the game’s final 2 touchdowns in a 28-26 loss. Their 23 points against the Crimson Tide are the most anyone has scored against Alabama thus far. Fisher and his developing contender are not to be taken lightly.

But for my pick – I take you back to the moneyline odds of (+190). Similar to Florida-Mississippi State last weekend (in which UF’s moneyline was off-the-charts too long) this game has been mispriced based on past trends, skepticism of the UK program, and A&M’s near-upset of a Clemson team that is still trying to figure out how it wants to go forward.

Plus, a dominant defense always gets undervalued slightly compared to a dominant offense – in the media, by the fans, by handicappers in Vegas, and often by sports gamblers.

Take Kentucky on the moneyline or to cover (+6).