Kentucky Derby: Does Shocking Scratch Open Door to a Bob Baffert Trifecta?

If anyone wondered why some gamblers disdain “futures” horse race betting in favor of daily markets at racebooks, perhaps this week’s bizarre events have driven home the point.

People headed to Churchill Downs – or to their local track – to place old-fashioned bets at the window on Derby Day are just as excited as they were 48 hours ago.

But a plurality of gamblers who wagered on futures for the 145^th Kentucky Derby? They’re gnashing teeth, hoping to spend the weekend forgetting about the Run for the Roses.

You probably won’t find them on the beach, though. Or in Omaha.

Former odds-on favorite Omaha Beach has suffered a stunning withdrawal from Saturday’s race in Louisville, causing chaos in Las Vegas. The Thoroughbred is dealing with an uncommon-if-not-rare condition called an entrapped epiglottis, or (in layman’s terms) an issue with the 3-year-old colt’s windpipe that causes a cough.

A routine surgery should have the Richard Mandella racehorse back in training within a month or so, but there is no option to run in the Derby.

Even those whose futures bets on the 4-to-1 horse were busted as of Wednesday afternoon should be thankful that American horse racing culture is so attuned to the health and safety of Thoroughbreds. But perhaps no one in the world is thanking his lucky stars quite like trainer Bob Baffert at the moment.

Baffert’s trio of likely Derby contenders Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable were taking significant betting action as of early in the week, in 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th position on the Bovada Sportsbook futures board. Omaha Beach was the spoiler, a quality “mudder” who was perhaps primed to defeat all 3 Baffert animals on a heavy track.

The iconic trainer is the Bill Belichick of horse racing, almost always winning when he is expected to and often prevailing even when his colt is an underdog. Does a scratched former favorite open the door to a record-tying 6^th Derby win, and perhaps even a 1-2-3 “trainer trifecta?”

It would be an historic achievement, one of the great all-time feats in horse racing. In fact, you’d find a hard time finding parallels to Baffert’s dominance anywhere else in sports history. The closest thing I can think of is Mark McCormack representing Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Gary Player at the same time in the late 1960s. But it’s not as if McCormack raised his golfers as children and taught them how to play.

All 3 Baffert racehorses are now at 4/1 odds or shorter at Bovada, the favorites to win, place, and show on Saturday afternoon. The improbable – excuse the pun – is clearly possible.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Weather in the Bluegrass State is gloomy, with the forecast calling for more rain through the weekend in Louisville. It is highly unlikely that the Derby will be contested on a dry surface. Thoroughbreds may have to deal with mud, falling precipitation, and flying clumps of kick-back. Omaha Beach was one of the few proven mudders in the field of 20, and he’s no longer in the race.

A few handicappers are skeptical that the 66-year-old Arizona native’s stable is all that it’s cracked up to be. Then again, those who have drawn that conclusion in the past have often eaten crow on Derby Day. At least there were plenty of mint juleps to wash it down.

Here’s a brief look at each of the Bob Baffert favorites in 2019.

Game Winner (+333)

After an undefeated 2-year-old season, Game Winner posted a pair of 2nd-place finishes in 2019. The bay colt has an overall record of 4-2-0 in his 6 starts.

Game Winner won at Churchill Downs on November 2nd in the Sentient Jet Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.

The 3-year-old Thoroughbred could be Baffert’s best chance at another Kentucky Derby title, assuming the race is run in anything close to normal conditions. His Equibase Speed Figure is a capital 111 and his pedigree should make stamina on the long track a non-issue.

But the rain and slop won’t be a non-issue. Game Winner has never raced in a sweepstakes on a wet track, making his status as the new odds-on favorite questionable.

Roadster (+350)

Roadster has been on a sunny road with 2 wins in 2 starts in 2019. The Thoroughbred’s pair of wins at Santa Anita, including a come-from-behind sprint to edge Game Winner, have helped to shorten its betting odds considerably.

Baffert knows that Roadster is his potential show-stealer at the Derby. He’s a front-runner who likes to charge in the early going, and precipitation could help to hamper visibility and other ingredients crucial to come-from-behind tactics by opposing jockeys.

There’s no evidence that Roadster can win from deep in the pack. The colt was all alone on the outside at Santa Anita while the leaders were preoccupied with each other and not necessarily sprinting at full speed on the 1 and 1/8th mile track. His best chance to win at Churchill Downs is to lead the race before it gets to that point.

Like Game Winner, Roadster has never raced in the slop.

Improbable (+400)

Improbable is taking slightly-fewer bets to-win thanks to his momentum being broken early in 2019. The chestnut colt had 3 1st-place finishes last year including a win at the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, but a pair of place-finishes in 2019 upset the Thoroughbred’s status with Derby prognosticators.

The horse still has a top Equibase Speed Figure of 109 and a similar pedigree as Game Winner. Each can claim Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy as a damsire.

Most importantly, Improbable has impressed in rainy conditions. On a sloppy track at the Arkansas Derby, he doggedly pursued guess-who – Omaha Beach – from far post to home stretch, finishing in 2^nd.

There won’t be an Omaha Beach to out-gallop the Baffert colt in (likely) slop at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

A Post-Wednesday Handicap of the Derby

It’s strange to see 2 horses taking more action than an exceptionally-fast fellow Baffert colt who is accomplished on sloppy surfaces, and whose loss in Arkansas came to a Thoroughbred no longer running in the Kentucky Derby.

I’m afraid a Baffert trifecta is probably not in the cards, since too many questions surround 2 out of 3 horses’ inexperience in wet weather. At least 1 of the 3 is likely to have a disappointing race. Not the end of the world. It’s still very likely that the legendary trainer will tie the Derby record with a 6^th title.

Improbable is a terrific pick at 4-to-1 as a proven commodity in the mud.

Besides, a win for Improbable would allow headline copy-writers all sorts of cheesy puns this Sunday…the kind they’re Always Dreaming of, and Justify-ably so.