Let’s Talk NFL After Week 9

After 9 weeks of empty-stadium NFL action we still have an undefeated team, we have 1 winless team – plus 30 others somewhere in between.

The Saints used to be 1-2 … now they are 6-2 and in contention for a first-round bye. The Bears were 5-1 … now they are 5-4 and on the outside of the playoffs looking in if the season ended today.

The Patriots began 2-1 but now are 3-5 and can barely handle the Jets. The Lions had clawed back to respectability at 3-3 but are now losers of 2 straight and HC Matt Patricia is once again on the hot seat.

I broke this week into 3 sections. We have “Things That Haven’t Happened in a While but Might Happen This Year”, “By the Numbers”, and finally “Playoff Picture”. Let’s dig in!

Things That Haven’t Happened in a While but Might Happen This Year

An 0-12 Start

Not since 2017 when the Cleveland Browns embarked on a quest to finish 0-16 have we seen an 0-12 start in pro football. The last team to start 0-12 before the 2017 Browns was the 2016 Browns. The 2016 version of Cleveland football started 0-14, eventually finishing 1-15 … and missing the playoffs, shockingly.

After their MNF loss to New England in Week 9, the New York Jets are 0-9 – the only winless team in 2020. 3 more losses will put New York in rare company. The Jets are scheduled to play at the Chargers (2-6), vs Miami (5-3), and vs Las Vegas (5-3) in their next 3.

While the Chargers are the weakest of these 3 teams, Justin Herbert is playing at a high level and Los Angeles figures to be a one-touchdown favorite. The other 2 games will likely see double-digit spreads … the Jets are really bad. Former Lions QB Dan Orlovsky maintains his 0-16 Lions from 2008 would destroy the 2020 Jets.

A Losing Season in Foxborough

The Patriots last losing season was in 2000. This was Bill Belichick’s first year head coaching the team. He has put together winning seasons each year since.

The streak of 19 winning seasons is in jeopardy this year as the Patriots are 3-5 through 9 weeks.

Winning seasons aren’t the only streak at risk. The Patriots have also made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons. The addition of the third Wild Card figures to help New England as winning the East is looking like more and more of a long shot with how well the 7-2 Bills are playing.

Former-MVP quarterback Cam Newton hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3 against Las Vegas! Newton has just 2 TDs and 7 INTs this year in 7 starts. He missed one game with COVID.

Many thought that Belichick could pop any old arm in his offense and the system would carry him … guess not.

Back-to-Back Super Bowl Winner

We have not had a back-to-back Super bowl winner since the Patriots in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season and are among the league’s top teams once again this year.

At 8-1, FiveThirtyEight predicts the Chiefs to finish 13-3 and gives KC a league-high 24% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Kansas City’s biggest obstacle looks to be the Pittsburgh Steelers who are 8-0 and projected to finish with a 14-2 record. This gives Pittsburgh the best chance of grabbing the AFC first-round bye.

The Steelers have had the Chiefs’ number over the last decade. Since 2011, the Steelers are 6-2 SU against Kansas City. The Steelers are 3-1 vs KC in games played over the last 5 seasons.

 

Their words, not ours:

“The defending champs hit their bye as the best team in football.” 🤷‍♂️

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 10, 2020

Back-to-Back Winning Seasons in Buffalo

The last time the Bills had back-to-back winning seasons was in the 1998 and 1999 seasons. Wade Phillips was their head coach and Buffalo lost in the Wild Card round of the playoffs by one score each of those postseasons.

Buffalo improves to 7-2 this year with their Week 9-victory over Seattle. FiveThirtyEight predicts the Bills to finish with a record of 11-5. Last season, the Bills won 10 games under Shawn McDermott but lost in an overtime thriller to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round.

A 10-0 Start

Not since 2015 when the New England Patriots started 10-0 and the Panthers started 14-0 have we seen a 10-0 start from an NFL team. The Patriots finished 12-4 that year while Carolina finished 15-1.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2020’s last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0. The Steelers’ next 2 contests are both very winnable – hosting the 2-5-1 Bengals in Week 10 and then visiting the 1-7 Jaguars in Week 11.

Pittsburgh is projected to be double-digit favorites in each of their next 2 games. The stage is set for a massive Week 12 matchup when the Steelers host 6-2 Baltimore. The Ravens will be looking to avenge their Week 8 loss. Pittsburgh could be 10-0 entering that game while Baltimore could be 8-2 with wins over the next 2 weeks.

 

For the first time in #SteelersHistory, we are 8-0.@powerhomesolar1 | Full #SightsNSounds on YouTube ⬇️

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 12, 2020

A 6-Win Division Winner

Since the league switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978, no division winner in a full season has had fewer than 7 wins. The 2020 Eagles are in position to be the first-ever 6-win division winner.

Philly currently sits at 3-4-1 after a Week 9 bye. The Eagles have 8 remaining games: @NYG (2-7), @CLE (5-3), vs SEA (6-2), @GB (6-2), vs NO (6-2), @ARI (5-3), @DAL (2-7), vs WAS (2-6).

If Philly beats the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to … they will acquire 3 more wins. The Eagles should beat the Giants, Cowboys, and Re*****s while losing the other 5. The would put the Eagles at 6-9-1 on the year.

It is unlikely one of the other teams in the East can climb above 6 wins. Should the Eagles end the year with 6, they will become the first 6-win division winner in NFL history.

NFL Week 9 – By the Numbers

12

The number of three-interception games in Tom Brady’s 21-year career.

Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career in Week 9 against the Saints. The Bucs lost 38-3 – the worst loss of Tom Brady’s career.

Brady sported a dismal passer rating of just 40.4 – the third-worst mark of his entire career.

1

The number of first-quarter offensive touchdowns scored by New England this season.

On MNF in Week 9 against the Jets, Cam Newton punched it into the endzone with 3:34 remaining in the first quarter. This was the first time a Patriots’ offensive player had found himself in the endzone with the ball that early in the game.

151

The number of yards from scrimmage by Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey in his return versus Kansas City.

McCaffrey had been sidelined since September with an ankle injury. He announced his presence with 151 total yards on 28 touches and nearly willed Carolina to the upset victory. The Panthers fell 33-31 to the now 8-1 Chiefs.

McCaffrey injured himself again in the contest – this time his shoulder – and is listed as day-to-day.

248

The number of passing yards by Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa in the Dolphins Week 9 win over Arizona.

The Dolphins were 3-3 heading into their Week 7 bye and decided to bench FitzMagic in favor of the 22-year-old first-round pick. Things have gone swimmingly – with Tua playing well and the Dolphins notching back-to-back Ws – improving to 5-3.

 

This pass had an 16.4 % chance of being completed, per Next Gen Stats.

It was the most improbable completion by a Miami QB over the last three seasons. https://t.co/DOWQLHDk8D

— Jake (@JMendel94) November 10, 2020

NFL 2020 Playoff Picture

Here is a quick look at the NFL playoff bracket if the season plays out according to FiveThirtyEight projections.

• The Ravens take a bad beat here. Even with a better record than 2 of the division winners in their conference, 12-4 Baltimore must travel to 11-5 Buffalo as the 5 seed in the Wild Card week because Pittsburgh took the AFC North.
• The Saints shoot up from the 5 seed to the 2 seed with their demolition of Tampa Bay on SNF in Week 9.
• 3 teams from the NFC West are likely to be in the postseason – a testament to the strength of the division.
• Oh boy, Brownies!!! Is this the year?!?!