Massive Underdogs are Normally Terrible Bets – This Year They’re Winning

It has been said you can count on two things – death and taxes. I would add a third item to that list. You can always count on large underdogs in the MLB to come up short … well, at least until this season.

The system is ultra-simple and yet the numbers are staggering. Underdogs of +200 or more have not had a profitable season since 2004!

If you were unfortunate enough to be backing these dogs the whole way hoping for a turnaround, you would be out $28,755. On the flip side, those who bet against these dogs would be over $14,000 richer. Check out the numbers.

Season	SU Record (%)	Profit
2019	4-5 (44.4%)	$495
2018	54-205 (20.8%)	-$7,860
2017	39-135 (22.4%)	-$4,620
2016	44-108 (28.9%)	-$995
2015	19-46 (29.2%)	-$420
2014	6-36 (14.3%)	-$2,305
2013	33-77 (30%)	-$400
2012	15-53 (22.1%)	-$2,045
2011	15-46 (24.6%)	-$1,400
2010	34-96 (26.2%)	-$1,940
2009	28-85 (24.8%)	-$2,120
2008	22-63 (25.9%)	-$1,565
2007	30-70 (30%)	-$365
2006	29-78 (27.1%)	-$1,500
2005	30-83 (26.5%)	-$1,715
Total	402-1186 (25.3%)	-$28,755

This has been one of the strongest and longest-running betting trends of our generation, in any sport. With a 4-5 record through the first 9, the Orioles, Twins, and Blue Jays (but mostly just the Orioles) have ruined it.

Fresh off a pitiful 2018 campaign, the O’s are receiving no love from the bookies. The Dirty Birds have been given odds north of +200 in 4 of their first 12 games – that’s 33.3%!

I suppose it should not be a huge surprise that Baltimore is playing as massive dogs so frequently. Last season, despite owning the 3rd-highest average line in the majors, the O’s led baseball in number of lines of +200 or more. 39 of their 162 games were played in this fashion – a tick over 24%.

With 4 of the league’s 9 lines of +200 or more this season, Baltimore is largely responsible for the reversal of this long-standing trend. The O’s are 2-2 in these games – winning as a +320 dog and a +270 dog in back-to-back days against the Bronx Bombers.

In fact, all 4 of the Orioles +200 lines have come against New York. Maybe it is not Baltimore flourishing but the Yankees stinking that has caused this trend to waiver.

The Yanks are receiving the stiffest odds in America and it is not even close. With an average line of -201.5, New York would need to win at a 66.8% clip just to break even. They are 5-7 through their first 12.

So the Yankees are not playing up to standards while the O’s are actually taking care of business for once. This is no reason to panic right? Things will straighten themselves out and we can go back to making easy money betting against large dogs, right?

To help answer those questions, here is a month-by-month breakdown of what betting on all dogs of +200 or more since 2005 got you.

Month	SU Win %	Profit since 2005
April	25.3%	-$2,690
May	18.5%	-$7,050
June	30.6%	-$225
July	28.0%	-$2,520
August	24.9%	-$7,250
September	24.1%	-$8,935
Total	25.3%	-$28,755

You see, there is a month during which large dogs have played better historically. That month is June, not April. The beauty of betting against large dogs is that you could always do it from the get-go and make beaucoup bucks.

Am I saying to panic and begin blindly betting large dogs? Absolutely not. I am just pointing out how unusual this start to the season has been.

Keep things in perspective. If large dogs lose 3 or 4 in a row, everyone will soon forget the “hot” start they enjoyed. Monitor this situation, boppers. There may be opportunity for profits in either direction.