MLB Contender Profile – Can the Washington Nationals Win a World Series?

The Washington Nationals are an excellent pick to reach the postseason.

2 months ago, that statement would have sounded crazy. The Nats were behind both Philly and Atlanta in the standings for most of the first half. Through May, the Nationals were 24-33, behind even the Mets. Nats fans were losing hope.

Since June 1, the Nationals hold the best record in the NL at 33-16. Only the Cleveland Indians have been hotter during this stretch.

At the beginning of July most Nationals fans would have liked to see their team cut its losses and sell at the deadline. The Nats are now buyers after playing their way into the 3rd-best record in the NL and the 1st Wild Card spot.

Here is a peek at the top of the current NL East and Wild Card standings.

Washington is in a good spot. Bovada has the Nats +450 to win the East – second-best odds behind Atlanta. Washington is +1200 to win the NL Pennant and +2200 to win the World Series.

Does Washington have what it takes to play deep into October? What are the Nationals’ strengths and weaknesses? Here is a quick rundown.

The Nationals’ Starting Pitching is Game-Changing

Baseball Reference playoff odds give Washington a 67.3% chance to reach the postseason but just a 17.9% chance of winning the East. The Nationals’ most likely path to October baseball will be through the Wild Card.

This means the Nats will need to win a one-game playoff if they wish to contend for a title this year. Manager Dave Martinez has 3 terrific options to start that game.

The Nationals’ rotation is led by a dominant trio of starting pitchers – Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin.

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Scherzer	9-5	2.41	0.99	12.66
Strasburg	14-4	2.94	1.04	10.75
Corbin	9-5	3.18	1.14	10.50

Strasburg leads the NL in wins outright with 14. The next-highest is Ryu from the Dodgers with 11. The Dodgers are the only other team in the NL with 3 pitchers at 9 wins or more.

The Astros just traded for Zack Grienke. Greinke will join Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, creating the only 1-2-3 starters in baseball I would trust above the Nats’ Big 3. In the National League, no other team can boast the quality of starters that Washington can.

With one of these 3 pitchers starting, Washington is 38-26 in 2019. The combined records of this 1-2-3 punch are 32-14. This means in games when these pitchers receive no decisions, the team is 6-12. Why so bad? The bullpen. It has been awful.

Washington Has the Worst Bullpen in the League

This is not an exaggeration – it is the worst. The Nationals’ bullpen ERA this season is over 6. No other team with a winning record is inside the bottom-10 of bullpen ERA. It is amazing that Washington has been able to mount this second-half surge with all of their bullpen issues.

Sean Doolittle has been one of the two dependable arms in the pen this year for Dave Martinez.

With 45 innings pitched, Doolittle is the 2nd-most worked bullpen pitcher in Washington. He has notched 23 saves – blowing 4 – and has done so with a 3.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9.

The only Nationals reliever getting more work than Doolittle is the 27-year-old Wander Suero. Suero had a nightmarish start to 2019 – posting ERAs of 6.92 and 6.75 in April and May.

Some time in the minors in June did wonders for Suero who has returned with All-Star-quality numbers in the 2nd half. Since returning from the break, Suero’s BB/9 is below 3, his WHIP below 1, his ERA below 3, and opposing hitters are batting just .190 off him.

The knock on Suero is that he performs well in routine situations but falters when the pressure is on. Obviously, this is not a good trait for a top reliever on a contending team.

Fangraphs labels all situations as either low, medium, or high leverage. Changes in win expectancy are used to calculate this. High leverage situations are the most clutch.

When sorting his stats by low, medium, and high leverage, it becomes clear Suero is not someone who should have the ball with the game on the line.

Leverage	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	Opp Avg
Low	2.42	1.04	2.77	.202
Medium	3.00	1.20	3.00	.232
High	13.50	1.85	4.15	.353
Total	4.53	1.23	3.08	.235

The Nationals realized quite early this season that their bullpen was their greatest weakness. An excellent month of June put Washington back into contention. On July 31, Washington did what most contenders do at the trade deadline and bolstered a weakness – adding 3 relievers.

Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias, and Hunter Strickland will join Doolittle and Suero in the Nats’ pen. These pitchers do not give the Nats the best bullpen in the league, but the Nats do not need to have the best bullpen in the league to succeed.

With the caliber of starting pitching in Washington, a league-average bullpen will do just fine. The hopes are that these 3 additions will get the bullpen closer to average. A league-worst bullpen won’t cut it in September and October. A decent bullpen can get the job done.

Anthony Rendon is the New Harper

No team ever wants to lose the production of a star player. The Nationals knew they would have extremely large shoes to fill when Bryce Harper walked away in free agency to division rival Philadelphia shortly before the start of the 2019 season.

Washington did not make a trade to add another outfielder or sign a big free agent. Instead, they banked on one of their existing players stepping up. Anthony Rendon answered the call. He has been the guy in 2019.

Rendon is now the best hitter in the Nats’ lineup, but he has been very good for a few years now. His consistency over the past 3 seasons is amazing. Rendon is on pace to set new career highs in many offensive categories this year.

Year	AVG	HR	RBI	R
2016	.270	20	85	91
2017	.301	25	100	81
2018	.308	24	92	88
2019	.317	23	80	77
2019 on-pace*	.317	35	122	117

* on-pace numbers provided by CBSSports

.317 with 35/122/117. These are MVP numbers! Rendon’s 2019 production has been invaluable to the Nats. He has seamlessly stepped into the role that Harper once occupied in Washington.

Juan Soto Has a Bright Future

The 20-year-old outfielder Juan “Childish Bambino” Soto has the 2nd-highest Off on the Nationals this year, behind Rendon.

Baseball has so much young talent and Soto is among the best. Of all players age 22 or younger this year, only Ronald Acuna Jr and Rafael Devers have hit more home runs than Soto.

There have been young players with many home runs in the past, but very few young players possess the eye and plate discipline that Soto does.

Soto has the 8th-highest walk rate in 2019 among all qualified hitters. His power-speed combination along with his selectiveness at the plate grants him the 20th-highest Off in baseball. RBI-leader Josh Bell is 23rd overall, for comparison.

Soto and his outfield mates Adam Eaton and Victor Robles have combined for 41 home runs, 144 RBIs, and 35 steals while hitting .270 – extremely impressive considering we still have 2 months of the season to play.

Last year, with Bryce Harper, the Nats outfield combined for 67 home runs, 231 RBIs, and 51 steals while hitting .265. These are very good numbers – excellent outfield production.

It is amazing that Washington is able to maintain high levels of outfield play despite losing a former-MVP in Harper.

Will the Nationals Make the Playoffs?

I say yes. This team has amazing upside. They are the hottest team in the NL, their 1-2-3 punch is rivaled only by the Dodgers, their young hitters are excelling, and they shored up their biggest weakness at the trade deadline.

Here’s the problem. Washington will most likely make the postseason as a Wild Card. If they win the play-in game they will face the top-seed in the NL – the Dodgers.

Washington has never won a playoff series. The franchise’s last playoff series win was back in 1981 when the Montreal Expos beat the Phillies in the NLDS.

Asking the Nats to beat the Dodgers is daunting, but it is something they will almost assuredly need to do if they wish to play in the Fall Classic.

The Dodgers are obviously the better team. Maybe instead of asking if we believe in Washington, we should see if the Dodgers are capable of an off-series.

Nationals futures bets are not a lock – not even close, but they do pay off well! Even if futures bets aren’t your thing, knowing that Washington is the hottest team in the NL and why they are so hot will help your day-to-day handicapping.

See you on top!