MLB Playoff Betting Guide

If you have struggled this MLB season, I have the remedy to turn your luck around. With the playoffs almost upon us, we can take advantage of a few profitable MLB playoff betting trends to cash in big during the October madness.

With each of these trends, you can either bet them as-is or use them as a foundation for deeper systems that generate even more return on your investment.

Games After Blowing Lead

The first trend I like has a small sample size but results you cannot argue against. I figured that teams who blew a lead in a playoff game would likely come back the next game determined to get a W. I was correct.

It turns out that this system has been bleeding bookies dry since 2009. Take a look at what teams have done after blowing a lead they held for at least five innings the game prior:

Year	Record	ROI
2017	1-0	95.2%
2016	1-0	81.3%
2015	2-1	11.4%
2014	1-0	120%
2013	0-1	-100%
2012	2-0	84.4%
2011	3-0	112.1%
2010	2-1	38%
2009	1-0	80%

Like I said, it is a small sample size but that sample has produced amazing results, going 13-3 with a staggering 51.8% ROI since 2009.

Use this juicy bit of info to build complex systems which involve factors such as starting pitcher strength, bullpen rest, handedness matchups, etc.

Home Teams in Games 6 & 7

To the average fan, high-pressure games late in a series can be seemingly unpredictable. Sharp bettors realize that strong trends exist in these games which can be capitalized on. While others are betting with their hearts, we know better and make picks with our brains.

The sample size is more worth of your trust on this one, amassing 30 plays since the 2007 playoffs. The results of betting on home teams in games 6 or 7 of MLB playoff series are shown below:

Year	Record	Profit
2017	5-2	$275
2016	1-2	-$82
2015	1-0	$125
2014	1-1	-$40
2013	3-0	$317
2012	2-0	$200
2011	3-1	$173
2010	1-1	-$60
2009	2-0	$200
2008	1-1	-$20
2007	2-0	$200

So I know those red rows jump out to you, but look at the profit numbers. When this system wins, it wins big! The losses are close losses and are basically pocket change.

This system has sustained an incredible 33% ROI since 2007. That type of return over that long of an interval means we must be onto something here.

DO NOT Listen to the Masses

When betting on playoff baseball, it is imperative that you bet with your head and not your heart.

Have you ever tried to buy tickets for a playoff game? They are ridiculously expensive, right? Ever wonder why they start the playoff games in the freezing cold at 9pm? The answer is money!

Everything in pro sports revolves around money and the playoffs are when teams and networks can really rake it in. Because October is money season, media outlets will relentlessly hype games, storylines, and matchups. This noise from non-experts can really hinder our ability to accurately predict games.

When Conor McGregor was challenging Floyd Mayweather in August of 2017, the media promoted a “Fight of the Century” that was bound to come down to the final bell.

This advertising fooled many into paying money and getting excited for a fight that experts knew Mayweather was bound to win easily. This same type of trickery occurs all the time in the MLB playoffs.

Good teams are always going to be talked up, especially those from New York as that is where much of the national media outlets are headquartered. You will hear storylines which indicate that certain underdogs may have a chance, but the experts always side with the favorites because that is what the people want to see.

During October, it is best to avoid immersing yourself in the thought processes of the public as they are derived from the money-hungry media and not at all expert analyses.

Do your homework, stick to the numbers, and you will emerge from the MLB playoff betting dust holding a big fat check.