MNF Prediction: Miami Dolphins the Only Popular Vegas Underdog in Week 8?

NFL gamblers are getting nervous. It’s Week 8 of the 2019-20 season, and no one can fathom how poorly some of the underdogs are faring.

Cleveland has had its annual late-summer orgy of hype and then disappointed, leading the betting public to jump all over a modest point spread on the Patriots vs the visiting Browns this Sunday. The Pats-Browns spread has moved to (-12.5) for New England.

Denver’s left-over talent on defense prompted bookmakers to open on a cautious (-4.5) line for the host Indianapolis Colts vs the Broncos this weekend.

The shadow of a legendary QB looms over the betting board for New Orleans in Week 8. Drew Brees is questionable to return from injury on Sunday afternoon, but that’s an upgrade from his prior injured status. Brees was quoted on NFL Network on Thursday morning, saying he “plans” to play against the Cardinals. That’s sent bettors on a gold rush (literally) of wagers on New Orleans-to-cover and pushed the point spread to NO (-12.5) after opening in single-digits.

You wouldn’t have pegged the Miami Dolphins to be the outlier-underdog who everyone takes out wagers ATS on this time around. The 0-6 club has been accused of tanking to try to snag the #1 overall draft choice, and bookmakers saw fit to label the Dolphins a (+16.5) underdog vs Monday Night Football host Pittsburgh when markets opened on Monday. But betting action has shrunk the line to (+14) as Miami is even getting some decent moneyline action at 5-to-1.

I’ll handicap the Pittsburgh-Miami match-up on scroll. Before we get to MNF, here’s a handful of predictions (and lines) for this Sunday’s action.

Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals (Wembley Stadium)

You have to wonder if Cincinnati’s winless NFL team isn’t buoyantly happy to get away from America for a while, just like the 4-3 Rams ought to be. After all Cincinnati is 0-0 in the United Kingdom this season, and has an opportunity to represent a quality NFL brand to Londoners against (most) odds. It’s not a lucky break to have Los Angeles to play at Wembley, but the Rams have looked slow-paced enough on offense that the Bengals could conceivably bother them.

As a guy on a podcast asked me bluntly yesterday, “can they do it?” It would help if the Bengals had a defense that could harass a shaky quarterback. Gardner Minshew of the Jaguars is not the most-accurate NFL quarterback, going 15-of-32 vs Cincy last Sunday. But the D gave up all kinds of rushing yards to Leonard Fournette and did not bother Minshew enough outside of Gino Atkins’ 2 sacks. Andy Dalton, meanwhile, threw 3 interceptions and was plagued with poor blocking and tough downs-and-distances.

It feels like a “get-well” scenario for Goff to play a defense that will allow rush yards and which cannot tee-off on the pocket. It could be more of a get-well circumstance to play a winless team in a mutual “road” game, since Cincinnati is not likely to rebound with confidence if behind at halftime. But in order to run the ball successfully, you’ve got to have some horses to rely on. Melvin Gordon may not be the only Los Angeles tailback in danger of getting phased-out this autumn.

Todd Gurley was a superstar as of – oh, maybe 6 or 9 months ago or something like that. I’ve heard something about Gurley’s 2018-19 season captivating fans just a little bit. Now, Gurley is part of a backfield-by-committee that also includes Darrell Henderson out of Memphis and a handful of other backs.

Backfield-by-committee is better than QB-by-committee, and McVay has relied on a good defense and hard-earned rushing yards while Goff plays through the hiccups. Last week’s splendid 37-10 defeat of Atlanta snapped a 3-game losing streak as Gurley got in on the touches and frustrated Falcons finished with 0 interceptions or sacks.

Gambling action has moved this NFL London installment from a single-digit spread to (+12.5) for Los Angeles, but I think Cincinnati might just keep it closer thanks to the motivating factor of a potential “1-0” overseas trip and at least a brief fantasy of success.

Pick: Bengals ATS

L.A. Chargers at Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears and L.A. Chargers have each felt the pain of sloppy execution and turnovers over the last few weeks. Neither team is above the waterline on the season despite fielding fine defenses, and a healthy Mitch Trubisky doesn’t equal satisfaction with the Bears’ offense.

Gamblers aren’t happy with the Bears either. NFL odds-makers opened betting with a near-TD spread on the favored Bears vs Chargers this Sunday afternoon, but action has shrunk the line to (-4) as Philip Rivers prepares to try to out-play “Trub” at Soldier Field. (If 1 and 1/2 points of line-movement count, the Chargers are the *other* noteworthy/popular ‘dog ATS for this weekend apart from Miami…which doesn’t play on the “weekend,” come to think of it.)

The Bears have been stout in points-allowed, led by Khalil Mack – also known as the human offense-wrecker – with 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles through 6 games. But Matt Nagy’s squad just cannot put it together with the ball in hand. Trubisky was forced to attempt 50+ passes in a 36-25 loss to the Saints last week, and whispers are that NFL DCs have “figured out” what Chicago’s offense wants to do.

Trubisky has not been terrible, and is valuable on 3rd down and short as a scrambler and a runner. Play-calling predictability is likely coming into play. Every other pass is a check-down to Tarik Cohen, it seems, and Tank is getting wrapped up quickly. Cohen is 2nd for Chicago in receptions with 29, but his 147 yards is only good for 5.1 YPC.

The Chargers may be asking Rivers to fire-off as many throws as Trubisky has been tossing, if L.A.’s ground game doesn’t round into shape. Melvin Gordon’s struggles have come at a very inconvenient time.

Plenty of guys are thriving individually on L.A.’s side, including NFL-leading pass-catcher Austin Ekeler. James White is currently 2nd with 38 grabs, and Christian McCaffrey is also behind Ekeler with just 35 receptions. But a quality defense won’t be as effective on the road if Rivers, who is getting questions about his age, can’t work through the disappointing RB situation and score enough points to put pressure on opposing QBs.

Pick: Bears ATS

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers

Carolina has won 4 straight games, and some speculators are thinking this is the week Super Bowl dreams are rudely awakened in San Francisco. All we have heard this year is that the 49ers have not played anybody yet, but to think Kyle Shanahan’s defense is not one of the best in the NFL would be a mistake. Over the last 3 games the Niners have allowed just 10 points, the fewest in a 3-game span since 1987. Last week’s 9-0 win over Washington was a throwback to an older era of NFL football in which touchdown-sized leads were considered substantial.

We’ve seen quality defenses like the Chicago Bears D-unit fail to win games for their clubs when the offense can’t control the ball or play clean turnover-free pigskin. But the 49ers’ 2nd-ranked running game is the perfect complement for an impenetrable front-7. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are the lifeline of an offense managed carefully by Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Panthers come into the scrum fresh off a bye week, and head coach Ron Rivera has decided to stick with former Houston Cougars QB Kyle Allen as his signal-caller despite having a healthy Cam Newton at his disposal. The 23-year-old Allen is viewed as a scrappy winner and doesn’t suck as much air out of the media coverage for his teammates.

With yet another point spread inside a TD (-5.5) for the favored 49ers on Sunday afternoon, handicappers are overlooking a few factors in multiple markets, beginning with the fact that San Francisco should be closer to a (-7) favorite due to the advantage of playing an east coast team at a venue 3 time zones away from theirs. But I can’t imagine why the total opened around 40 points and has remained above that mark. Each set of coaches has reason to govern its QBs on the field and choose run-over-pass at crucial junctures.

Combine that with 2 marauding defenses and you’ve got another low-scoring scrum on your hands.

Pick: Under (40.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (MNF)

Unlike the scenario in New Orleans, there’s no 1 eclipsing reason why the point spread is moving for Monday Night Football. 

Instead, it’s just the overall vibe and narrative of both teams having an affect on gamblers’ choices. Odds-makers can factor-in all past and recent games on a handicap, but they can’t stop high-rollers from imagining that a team’s trajectory will continue on its present path up or down.

For instance, the Pittsburgh Steelers have objectively played better than the club’s 2-4 record. Pittsburgh has fought the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks for 4 quarters each, has taken the Baltimore Ravens to OT, and most-recently beat the L.A. Chargers 24-17 as Benny Snell Jr. rushed for 4.4 yards per carry. But with Big Ben’s season-ending injury and a defense that may be getting by on reputation, guile, and spit, the Steelers are not considered an automatic blow-out bid vs a patsy at Heinz Field.

And at the same time – dare we say it – Miami is showing signs of life. We can throw away that silly Dolphins-Redskins result from 2 weeks ago, but last weekend the ‘Fins took on a more-than-competent team on the road at Buffalo and lost 31-21. The Dolphins even scored twice in the 2nd quarter!

Holy baitfish.

As – ahem – breathlessly exciting as Miami’s offense may look these days, I’m also liking the Under (43.5) for a prime-time contest in which Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin will be in protect-and-survive mode. The Steeler injury list is longer than the Dolphins’ casualty ledger, and Tomlin will try to take the air out of the pigskin and dare the visitors to drive 80+ yards several times in a noisy environment. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a 19-7 result for Pittsburgh in which the winning score comes on defense.

Pick: Under