Musketeers Will Need a Break or Two Against the Wildcats

This year’s Villanova is no last year’s Villanova, but they are still Villanova. Remember, of course, that HC Jay Wright’s uber-talented 2017-18 squad won the National Championship with a 36-4 record.

This season, the Wildcats are sittin’ pretty at 13-4 overall and 4-0 in Big East play. Winning their previous 5 games has propelled them back inside the top-25. A slip up on Friday night against conference foe Xavier would surely mean a return to the less desirable “also receiving votes” section of the polls.

Living Dangerously – Villanova Shoots a Lot of 3s

In their championship year, ‘Nova chucked up a lot of triples. 29 3-point attempts per game ranked 6th among all 351 D-1 teams. Normally, shooting that often from deep is a recipe for inconsistency and heartbreaking upsets. It worked for Jay Wright because his team shot 39.8% from outside the arc, 20th in the nation.

Villanova made the 2nd-most 3 pointers in the nation during the 2017-18 season. They simply traded 2s for 3s all game long. That approach is not so foolproof this season. The ‘Cats are still hoisting up 29 3s a game but their percentage of makes has dropped from 39.8% to 35.5%.

The Wildcats are still tied for 6th in the nation in 3-point attempts per game, but now rank way down the list in 3-point percentage. Villanova ranks 126th in that category this season. You will not see them until the 4th page of results on ESPN’s college basketball team stats rankings.

Being listed on the 1st page of shot attempts and the 4th page of shooting percentage probably means you should start working the ball inside more. The ‘Cats have guys who can do it. Jay Wright just needs to include more inside shots in his gameplan.

One of ‘Nova’s big bodies is senior forward Eric Paschall. At 6’8 255, Paschall is averaging an impressive 16.5 points and 6.4 boards per game. He shoots from 3 more than most players his size but is hitting 38.8% from deep so it is working.

The Wildcats also have a more traditional big man, the lanky sophomore forward Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. At 6’9 226, DCR is an intimidating presence both in the paint and on the glass.

The 20-year-old is averaging 1.2 blocks and 0.9 steals per game in just 21.8 minutes. These numbers are both extremely solid and indicative of a defensive star in the making. His offense is not voluminous, but it sure is efficient. DCR is averaging 5.1 points per game on 68.8% (not a typo) shooting from the field.

Shorthanded Xavier Needs to Find a Counterpunch

The Musketeers lean heavily on 3 players, all of whom average over 30 minutes per game: leading-scorer Paul Scruggs, athletic forward Naji Marshall, and their fearless leader at point guard Quentin Goodin. Goodin has missed Xavier’s previous 2 games due to injury and is day-to-day for Friday night.

The Musketeers have won the 2 games Goodin missed despite having to replace over 30 minutes of effort. At 46.9% from the field on the season, Xavier’s FG% dropped to 43.1% in those 2 victories even though their assists per game numbers were higher than the team’s season average.

Verdict

It does not appear that Goodin’s absence is having any ill effects on the Musketeer’s play. With no line released as of writing, I expect Villanova to be named 6-point favorites. With that being said, my money will be on Xavier.

The ‘Cats have won 8 of the previous 10 meetings both SU and ATS. Everyone expects this streak to continue, especially with the health of Xavier’s point guard in question.

I said that Xavier would need to catch a break to win. That break is actually Goodin’s injury. I believe the line will look slightly more favorable for the Musketeers because of it, even though the numbers show it does not hamper them.

Also, teams that shoot a lot of 3s *cough Villanova* are enticing to bet against because they are streaky. Look for the Musketeers to bring major energy on the road in a prime time conference clout and outplay a more talented yet more inconsistent Wildcats team.