Navy Won’t Win For a Long Time

In 2015, Navy gave up their football independence to join the up-and-coming AAC.

Fast forward to today, and Navy is the not-so-proud owner of a 2-5 SU record and a 1-6 ATS record.

After a 2-1 start, the Midshipmen have lost games in every fashion imaginable. Close, overtime heartbreakers? Check. Utter blowouts? Check. Games where you are sort of in it but not really? Check.

The Mids’ offense has scored quite a few points this year, but their defense has been swiss cheese-esque. Navy’s ability to control the ball on offense should allow the defense to play well-rested and aggressive football. So what gives?

Will Navy’s Defense Ever Show Up?

This unit has allowed 34.3 points per game this year after allowing only 26.3 the year prior. Not surprisingly, Navy’s defensive numbers are terrible in 2018.

	NCAA Rank
Yards Allowed/Game	96th
Rush Yards Allowed/Game	74th
Pass Yards Allowed/Game	109th
Points Allowed/Game	107th
TO Forced/Game	54th

The Mids have nothing to hang their hats on. There is not a single defensive metric they can point to and say “at least we’re good at this”.

On offense, Navy boasts the 4th highest time of possession in the nation. This is not a defensive statistic, but it impacts the defense in a major way.

Because their offense always has the ball, the Mids’ defense should stay well rested throughout the entire game. This means that Navy should bring 100% intensity and aggression in the fourth quarter when the opponent has tired.

I say “should” because the extra rest does not seem to be helping the defense this year. Navy’s defense is similar talent-wise to last year’s unit, so personnel is not the problem. What is?

Is Niumatalolo Losing His Edge?

Bye weeks can remedy many woes but, if anything, Navy has played worse after the bye. Nothing has helped the Midshipmen defense get back on track, which does not reflect well on the team’s coaching.

Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has a proven track record at Navy, but the sports world operates on a “what have you done for me lately” basis. Lately, Navy has lost their previous two post-bye games despite being favored in each.

You can bet that Niumatalolo spent the majority of this year’s bye week working to improve his team’s defense, but he has nothing to show for it.

After several good seasons, it appears the move to the AAC might have finally caught up to the program. Navy is not playing the likes of South Alabama each week anymore. Check out this gauntlet they are about to enter.

Date	Opponent	Opp. Record
10/27	vs #3 Notre Dame	7-0
11/3	@ Cincinnati	6-1
11/10	@ #10 Central Florida	7-0

I think even Ken Niumatalolo would be shocked if his boys keep these games close, let alone win one of them.

How am I confident Navy will not pull any miraculous upsets? The key is that Vegas has this team figured out. Just like when I determined Vegas had the Broncos figured out, oddsmakers have been spot on with Navy’s spreads over the past few weeks.

The Mids have been pegged as larger and larger underdogs each week, and the lines continue to prove accurate. I am certainly not one to bet against the experts when they are hot.

Just like I did with the Broncos, I will use Navy’s opponent in teasers as well as parlaying the opposing moneyline during this three-game stretch.