NBA Finals Game 3: Nuggets vs. Heat Preview, Odds, Lines, Prediction, Picks

The Miami Heat responded, leveling the score in the NBA Finals series against the Denver Nuggets and stealing the home-court advantage. The series is tied at one-all now, but the Heat is in a better position with the swing going to their side. To make it even more painful for the Nuggets and sweeter for the Heat, Denver was up 15 points in Game 2, but collapsed in the second half of the event. Mike Malone was furious at the press conference, ripping apart the defense and calling out all the players. We’ll see if that had any effect on the Nuggets. 

• Nuggets Odds -140
• Heat Odds +120
• Spread Nuggets -2.5
• Over/Under 215.5

Preview

Denver Nuggets (-135) have suffered a knockout in the second half of Game 2. Such a poor performance following the break was unexpected, and many believe it was mostly because the Nuggets underestimated their rivals, thinking that the game was over. 

Nikola Jokic did his part of the job, creating history once more. The Joker scored 41 points and had 10 rebounds, becoming the first center outside the Lakers’ franchise with 40+ buckets and 10+ boards. However, that wasn’t enough for the hosts, as the Serb lacked support from teammates, primarily Murray and Porter Jr. 

MPJ was 1-for-6 for three, and he still didn’t find the rhythm in the series. More importantly, he had only six boards, without a block or a steal. Murray had 18 points, and he missed a three to tie the game, hiding from the ball throughout the most of the game.

Miami Heat (+115) is back. But that has been the case throughout the entire playoffs, with the franchise from Florida having a pretty unusual path toward the finals. The Heat was written off numerous times, which was the case during Sunday’s contest.

Three players from Miami combined for 65 points. Gabe Vincent had the most, 23, while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo ended the night with 21 points each, Butler nine assists and Adebayo nine boards. These three guys were relentlessly stuffing the basket, showing composure and focus.

An especially valuable contribution was the one Kevin Love had. He had the most boards in the game, 10, and was a force under the rim in the 111-108 victory. His experience was very important in some moments, as he brought confidence to the Heat game. 

Head to Head Games

Denver won both games in the regular part of the season, winning 124-119 at home and 112-108 on the road. After that, they would triumph in the opening game of the NBA Finals, 104-93, before losing Game 2, 111-108. Miami had 17 threes in 35 attempts in Game 2, also taking 20 free throws after only two in Game 1.

Prediction

The Heat is in an excellent situation right now. They have the home-court edge, the bookies don’t see them as favorites for the title, which removes the pressure, and on top of everything, Miami is finally back home. Once playing in Florida, their playoff contests are inefficient, with a defense-first mentality. The totals line for Game 3 is 215.5 points, and even though the Nuggets want to play fast and offensive-minded basketball, that won’t happen in Miami’s home, so our pick would be under. 

Pick: Under 215.5 points -110