NFC and AFC Divisional Round Prop Bets and Predictions ATS: 4 Picks for Saturday-Sunday

WagerBop predicted less blow-outs in the Wild Card Round than handicappers expected, and it looks like a prediction “win” that the biggest margin-of-victory in any of Wild Card Weekend’s 6 NFL playoff games was 12 points, courtesy of New Orleans vs visiting Chicago.

But in truth, many Week 18 battles felt like blow-outs waiting to get out.

There was even a potential lopsided-loss victim among the Wild Card winners! The L.A. Rams lost a backup QB to a 1st-half injury, except that the backup QB was the starter on a day when the “starting” QB was fresh out of surgery and tossing wild passes at CenturyLink Field. But the Seattle Seahawks were in no condition to take advantage, as a sluggish host offense was corralled by the Rams’ highly-touted defense as Goff gutted-out the victory.

Meanwhile, it’s not as if the Chicago Bears covered the point spread at New Orleans, though “Under” gamblers were as happy as Jimmy Graham DFS managers at day’s end. At least it never felt like Tampa Bay would beat Washington by 30 points, though it also never felt like the Buccaneers were in serious trouble.

Nobody took the Pittsburgh’s (-6) line seriously vs Cleveland. I hope.

As for the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, I don’t think anyone expected the former to have an easy time vs Indianapolis, and the Tennessee Titans made another contender’s playoff debut interesting by playing the kind of clean, disciplined game vs Baltimore that was missing from the Music City repertoire too often in late fall and winter. Like the Dallas Cowboys of the 1970s (or Kansas City’s run in the 2019-20 postseason), the superior and more-physical side took its time and asserted itself over 4 quarters, as the Ravens legitimized a 5-game streak to end the regular season and brought Derrick Henry’s historic campaign to a sour end.

Still, there’s a notable trend of tight playoff games, or at least NFL playoff favorites unable to run away on the scoreboard when certain ‘cappers expect them to. As the postseason field has been winnowed to 8 clubs in the NFC and AFC Divisional Round pairings this weekend, we can’t exactly expect that trend to die away. Opponents are tougher now, and underdogs more dangerous.

That doesn’t mean a given favorite isn’t a good pick ATS in the Divisional Round…but it means that we’d better have solid reasons for predicting such an outcome to occur. Such as the likely outcome at Lambeau Field this Saturday, a setting that could be more of a “frozen tundra” than usual.

Here’s a look at 4 main NFL Divisional Round betting markets, and lines on a couple of jazzy Divisional Round prop bets courtesy of our pals at FanDuel.

L.A. Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The L.A. Rams were 1 of 2 teams which, while surviving the Wild Card Round, finished Week 18 in grim condition. Cleveland practically had to suit-up cheerleaders to play OL vs Pittsburgh, but the Mountain Goats took the worst blow as rookie QB sensation John Wolford’s season ended with injury, pressing Jared Goff into action. Goff and the Rams are (+6.5) underdogs in Saturday’s Divisional Round contest at Green Bay. Goff’s injury problems aren’t as scary as Wolford’s were following a crushing Seahawk tackle. But the veteran isn’t healed, hurling half-accurate passes with pins in his throwing hand. Green Bay’s run defense isn’t special, but what if the Packers play 8-9 in the box and dare Goff to throw softballs over the top?

With 2 healthy QBs in tow, the well-coached Rams would have a 60% chance to cover a TD at Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers, even as he comes off an MVP regular season. But the visitors’ hard luck (and a possible snow shower) lowers that chance to at least 40% by giving Green Bay’s D a chance to manufacture mayhem and steal the show.

Pick: Packers ATS

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (O/U (49.5))

Packers-to-cover (-6.5) is an example of a pick that could pay-off under the usual circumstances, but for which new-and-improved circumstances have combined to make it the most-likely winner. Las Vegas is offering another such market with Buffalo and Baltimore’s (O/U (49.5)) line on Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round scrum in Orchard Park.

The kickoff’s Over/Under has hung stubbornly around 50 points, thanks to buzz for 2 of the finest young QBs (and supporting casts) in the NFL. Josh Allen’s offense hasn’t skipped a beat in Buffalo, while the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson continues to revolutionize pro pigskin with a Paul Johnson-inspired option attack. But did anyone think to check the weather forecast?

Bone-chilling cold. 30-MPH winds. Potential “Lake-Effect” snow that’ll bury a Jeep faster than you can say “RPO.” Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs might have a frustrating night, but it won’t be his QB’s fault when pass attempts sink or sail over the top. Baltimore could fall back on NCAA-ball with 75% rushes, and Buffalo has its own excellent 11-on-11 ground game for just this occasion.

Yes, both QBs are great – they’re about to play in a short, windy game in Buffalo.

Pick: Under

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Baker Mayfield’s first shining hour in the NFL playoffs came in an unlikely location, but the Browns suffered so many injuries that Kansas City is handicapped as a (-10) favorite over Cleveland in new NFL playoffs point spreads released this week. It doesn’t help that Kevin Stefanski has been on/off the job in postseason due to a COVID-19 quarantine.

Browns offensive linemen were learning each other’s names in the huddle as backup coaches tried to keep an injured roster glued together in Pittsburgh. Cleveland deserved to win the contest, but probably couldn’t have held on without a big cushion going into the 2nd half, having put up a 28-0 lead before still more Browns’ workhorses went down with wounds.

Pat Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs earned a bye through the AFC Wild Card Round, yet continued to draw more “futures” wagers to win the Super Bowl than in the previous week, meaning that more NFL Divisional Round predictions have swayed Kansas City’s way than toward KC’s main rivals, without the Chiefs putting any performances on film with which to move handicappers. Using process-of-elimination, we can surmise that a match-up with Baker Mayfield’s banged-and-bruised Cleveland Browns has caused the subtle odds change.

Pick: Chiefs ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (O/U (52))

Future HOF signal-caller Drew Brees appeared ageless in the New Orleans Saints’ victory over Chicago in the Wild Card Round. In only his 4th game behind center since suffering a horrific injury that involved 11 fractured ribs and a collapsed lung, Brees tossed 28 completions for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns against one of the league’s toughest defenses.

The 41-year-old Brees is still playing at an incredibly high level, and he’s also surrounded by top-tier weapons in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. All of that bodes well for the Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under line coming in below the contest’s actual point total.

2 solid run defenses will make game plans obvious for 2 of the best pocket-passing QBs ever in Brady and Brees, and neither proud legend will go down without a fight, making a close 4th quarter/OT(?) period into a “fail safe” for Over picks.

Pick: Over

Prop Bet #1: Highest-Scoring Team in Divisional Round

Kansas City is a popular (+230) bet to score the most points in the Divisional Playoff Round. Consider that the opposing Cleveland Browns will be coming off an emotional high in the brand’s first modern playoff victory over Pittsburgh last weekend, and what’s worse for the Browns, the visitors will not be healthy on the offensive line or on defense.

I’m afraid that handicap overlooks a “so good it’s bad” angle. If Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs succeed in blowing-out the Browns, the hosts won’t have reason to frantically add TDs in the 4th quarter. Mahomes could even take a seat on the bench. That possible scenario cuts back on Kansas City’s probability to score the most Divisional Round points of the 8 Super Bowl contenders left alive in mid-January.

Green Bay (+500) might not need a ton of points to defeat the L.A. Rams on Saturday. Instead, take a look at the New Orleans Saints (+550), who will take on a very difficult defense from Tampa Bay under circumstances that could nonetheless produce a shoot-out 2nd half and a high point-total for the winning team, or both teams. Each club is led by a shoo-in Hall of Fame quarterback, each legendary QB is healthy (after a long rehab for Drew Brees) and throwing with the kind of velocity, accuracy, and timing that has characterized 2 amazing careers. Tampa Bay’s excellent run defense will force New Orleans to make a choice, either running RB Alvin Kamara into a wall, or allowing Brees to hit Kamara and other run-after-catch specialists with quick passes. As a result, the Saints are more-likely to produce big plays than long, time-consuming scoring drives.

Spectacular success or failure for Old Gold could lead to an NFC Divisional Round game with a ton of short possessions, short fields, and funny bounces, with the winner posting a final point tally of 40+ or 50+ even though each defense is considered among the best in the conference.

Now, I hope readers feel like a shorter handicap on this week’s “Prop-Futures” line from FanDuel, since that’s what you’re going to get.

Prop #2 (Futures) Conference to Win Super Bowl 55 in February

It’s not that the National Football League’s conferences are so top-heavy as to inspire bold, baroque lines at the sportsbook. There’s a lot of good pigskin being played, as evidenced by an expanded round of well-contested playoff games that many feared would be academic last weekend. The AFC’s status as the “favorite” to win Super Bowl 55 (-148) has just as much to do with an evaluation of the underdogs in each conference as how pundits perceive the top playoff seeds.

New Orleans or Green Bay could give Kansas City a run for its money – heck, the Saints lost to the Chiefs by a slender 32-29 margin a few weeks ago. But there do appear to be more AFC teams with a “high ceiling” of performance who’ve made the playoffs.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is clearly a force in the NFL despite barely qualifying for a Wild Card seed. Those picking the “underdog” NFC at (+122) odds are counting on a club like Green Bay, New Orleans, or Tampa Bay to build on its excellent late-season form.

Kurt Boyer

Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.
Twitter: @scorethepuck
Email: kurt@wagerbop.com