NFL Saturday and Sunday Picks: Buccaneers vs Bengals ATS, Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Odds, and MNF Handicap

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday Night Football)

With The Shield beginning to diversify its schedule of games for the holiday season, those blogs advertising “NFL Sunday Picks” are getting thrown for a loop this week. It may seem like a myopic move to host NFL football on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, just as the FIFA World Cup reaches a climax and college football’s bowl season adds to the plethora of sporting events on TV. But recall that the World Cup is taking a break following the semifinals this Wednesday and that the FIFA World Cup Final on Sunday doesn’t commence late enough to interfere with any NFL viewing at just 10 AM EST.

Bettors who made warm-up NFL picks on the Packers in London are now going to be placing morning-hour bets on France or Argentina in Qatar, and yet fortunes of W/L weeks will already be collating with more than just TNF on the schedule before Sunday. It is possible the odds-makers at FanDuel are too overwhelmed by the insanity of December’s sports ledger to pay attention, but the best “warm-up” betting opportunity of Week 15 could come well before the weekend’s blitz of pigskin and soccer bouts—thanks in part to the reflexively tight point-spread markets on the Seattle Seahawks vs the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers (+3.5) can make a case as the hottest team in the NFL. San Fran’s 35-7 win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers may be the most impressive thing any NFC club did in Week 14 … counting the amazing Philadelphia Eagles. That adds up to 6 wins in a row, with the 49ers likely favored in all games remaining.

But San Francisco’s odds are fairly tight compared to what you gamblers might anticipate, given the 49ers’ inexperience at a woefully banged-up QB position, and crowd noise on their home turf for what could be the Seahawks’ last gasp in the division race.

While that’s a perfectly fine point of emphasis, Seattle also hasn’t enjoyed an impressive win over a good team since October, and the Eagles crushing win over New York demonstrated more than the Broncos’ flailing comeback bid vs the Chiefs in Week 14 when it comes to how rivalry games turn lopsided when emotions aren’t enough to make up for a deficit in ability. The Seahawks’ field is no longer a Hades of deafening noise and a great host defense – heck, it’s not even called CenturyLink Field these days.

WagerBop’s Pick: 49ers ATS (-3.5)

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (Saturday, December 17)

Minnesota has been dropped down many “Power Polls” in the NFL following a not-so-unforeseeable loss at Detroit. But we’re not ready to pick against another tight point spread for a David vs Goliath match-up on the Vikings’ home turf. Indianapolis is dead-in-the-water at 4-8-1, and Minnesota knows they must focus or run the risk of a poor NFC seed.

WagerBop’s Pick: Vikings ATS (-4.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Saturday, December 17)

Incidentally, early-week NFL kickoffs can be subject to the worst ill-advised betting trends. It was about 7 years ago when Bruce Arians of the Cardinals called out the media for casting St. Louis as a “sexy” Thursday night favorite, due to the Cardinals’ well-publicized injury headlines, prior to a game in which Arizona easily defeated a rival franchise with an inferior win-loss record. “You got one team that’s 11 and 3, and (the St. Louis Rams) who are always 8 and 8,” snarled the coach. But it was those noisy headlines that did it.

The Ravens’ surprising (+126) moneyline odds for Week 15 are connected to 2 main angles, the first being that Baltimore – like San Francisco – is getting down to the club’s 3rd string at quarterback. The Cleveland Browns have also garnered praise for producing a livelier-than-before offense under new starting quarterback Deshaun Watson.

However, Cleveland, much like Seattle, doesn’t have much quality on the resume as of late. Last week’s loss to the Bengals showed that the Browns’ formerly bruising RB pair of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt may not have the blocking to flourish late in 2022. That’s bad juju with a Big Truss team traveling into town that’s currently #2 in the NFL in overall rush defending. No matter which QB plays for the Ravens, we expect a physical Baltimore to defeat a club that’s won less than half as many games as John Harbaugh’s side.

WagerBop’s Pick: Ravens (+126)

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (Sunday, December 18)

Philly’s Week 12 win over Green Bay was a clear sign that the Eagles could be a strong wager in the postseason, in addition to a solid Sunday pick to cover point spreads set below 10 points. League-leading NFL teams are often marked by “good breaks,” as the club’s confident, secure team gets to focus on nothing but producing TDs, turnovers, and mayhem. In contrast, the Eagles’ win over the Packers in Week 12 was an example of everything going wrong for a superior football team that won with room to spare anyway.

The Eagles have produced enough blow-out victories since then that it appears as though no NFC underdog’s defense can stop a humming unit from scoring TDs. The Bears are not a great candidate to cover (+9) against Philadelphia in Week 15 even though Chicago can always put together a stubborn goal-line stand or 2 in the chill of Soldier Field. You’ll need a few touchdowns-scored to cover that kind of point spread vs Jalen Hurts at this stage.

WagerBop’s Pick: Eagles ATS (-9)

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, December 18)

The minority of NFL pundits who still dislike dual-threat QBs and often hold Tom Brady up as the impeccable model of Super Bowl greatness, trashing Colin Kaepernick and his stylistic descendants Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson as flashes-in-the-pan. Yet it’s ironic that in 2022, Tampa’s circumstances forced the first-ballot Hall-of-Fame passing game specialist Brady to play a role not unlike Tim Tebow’s with Denver, or Kaepernick’s in Super Bowl 47.

Even though Brady maintains the ability to win any contest with his arm in the final few minutes, the shaky Tampa Bay Buccaneers must keep handing off to ineffective RBs behind a make-shift offensive line, to protect the aging quarterback’s health. As an outcome, Tampa’s games have been tight and boring until Brady opens things up for a final-quarter rally. The Bucs hold on the NFC South is a slender 1-game lead due to the formula’s tenuousness.

The Bengals (-4.5) certainly deserve favor over the Bucs as the “young lion” Joe Burrow brings a sizzling-hot team into town. Yet the kickoff in Florida is a Week 15’s actual scenario in which bookmakers should have tightened odds further ahead of the weekend, instead of worrying about Philly getting into a close game. Tampa’s defense won’t let Burrow have anything too easy with a playoff seed on the line, considering that the Buccaneers cannot earn a postseason bid via any realistic path but winning the division title. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ blue-collar D gives Tampa Bay something to work with within the first 45:00.

WagerBop’s Pick: Buccaneers ATS (+4.5)

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (Sunday Night Football)

The point spread from FanDuel on the Commanders (-4.5) vs the Giants should be tighter as well, as New York takes on a division rival that stands far more comparable to the former team’s current rate of improvement. In essence, NY – having fared poorly for about 20 days since falling in an emotional game at Dallas – is rather like a college team that was stretched mercilessly in some out-of-conference Top 25 games but is now taking on Northern Illinois on familiar turf. Philly happens to be in the NY Giants’ conference and its division, which detracts from the parallel. But then again, Philadelphia is in its own “division” in 2022.

WagerBop’s Pick: Giants (+4.5)

L.A. Rams at Green Bay Packers (Monday Night Football)

Green Bay’s (-6.5) point spread for Monday Night Football is comparable, in some sense, to the Chiefs’ touchdown-sized spread against the visiting Dolphins. In each case, the wide point spread against an underdog is less of a commentary on the franchise’s pigskin effort and more of an acknowledgment of coaches’ big-picture considerations.

The Dolphins probably can’t surpass the Buffalo Bills to win their AFC division, especially if Miami loses to Kansas City on Sunday. If the Chiefs hold a 10-point lead and the football with 2:00 remaining, Miami is less likely to go all-out to try to manufacture a miracle win at all costs, as it will be better to retreat and prepare to triumph in a crazy AFC Wild Card race later. The Rams are already worrying about 2023-24 after suffering an autumn Super Bowl hangover to end all hangovers, though Baker Mayfield’s surprise 4th-quarter comeback over the Raiders certainly freshened things up for L.A. speculators in Week 14. Nothing against Mayfield, but those kinds of backup-QB heroics rarely last more than a single weekend.

The Packers could seem like a dodgy (-6.5) pick in any week of 2022-23, but with L.A. ready to pack it in, it’s important for sportsbook users to consider which team is more motivated and which is more well-rounded.

Green Bay can claim both mantles despite the fading form Aaron Rodgers, since the Packers enjoy an outside shot to reach the playoffs that the Rams do not, in addition to Green Bay play-makers on defense and special teams. The Packers’ DST performance nearly screwed Philly out of what should have been a breezy victory in Week 12 and loomed large again in the Pack’s win over the rival Chicago Bears on 12/4.

WagerBop believes that Green Bay’s team speed will come into play again on MNF, as Los Angeles is prepared to fight off 3 desperate host units.

WagerBop’s Pick: Packers ATS (-6.5)