NFL Sunday Betting Guide and Picks: Best Picks ATS and Sunday Night Football Underdog

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Sunday, October 6)

The FanDuel home office – located in the Big Apple, not in Sin City – must be absolutely thrilled that both the Jets and Giants are playing unexpectedly well this season. Sure, the sportsbook’s bottom line works out about the same, but the sporting life should be fun.

Meteorologists can talk about early-year “cold spells” sweeping the northern states, yet there’s a spring in the step of NFL patrons in every borough with both NY teams losing just 5 combined times so far in 2022-23 and nearby Buffalo and Philadelphia (albeit the bane of Big Blue fans in the NFC East rivalry) leading the way in picks on a potential Super Bowl champ.

However, the same bookmakers are not giving the Jets much of a chance in this week’s AFC showdown with the Bills. FanDuel Sportsbook’s moneyline on the New York to upset Buffalo is a weak (+460), with Josh Allen’s team giving a mammoth (-12.5) points on the spread. The NY Jets may be viewed as having reverted to the club’s expected waterline with last Sunday’s 22-17 loss to the Patriots. The Bills, meanwhile, come in reasonably healthy following a bye week and a nice 10-point victory over the Packers.

WagerBop is not completely sold on the Bills’ “no-brainer” ATS market as a pick to recommend, since the past reputation of Aaron Rodgers is the only thing keeping Green Bay in more stock at the sportsbook than a talented upstart at 5-3. The Jets may have lost a couple of lopsided games back in September in which the New York failed to cover points, but the club has performed well in October against common-opponents.

Although our EPL picks this week argue that Chelsea F.C. is facing the top team in November, not in March, it seems that NFL bookmakers have erred on the same coin’s flip side, focusing way too much on the present moment (and Week 8’s Pats-Jets outcome) while failing to take the Jets’ entire body of work into account in setting the spread.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jets ATS (+12.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders (Sunday, October 6)

Daniel Snyder, the Washington Commanders’ owner, appears to be finally moving to sell Washington’s football team – excuse the pun – and hence the brand’s 4-4 record is belied by not only a last-place standing in the NFC East but also a confused and unfocused civic vibe, as the contentious election-season coincides with what’s sure to be a controversial sale. That is if Snyder proves to be good to his word with Bank of America and other powerful actors.

Don’t link the Snyder headlines with the Commanders’ (+3.5) point spread this weekend, even though it’s common for NFL teams to become downtrodden when the franchise is known to be up for sale. The reality in Washington D.C. is that Snyder has been markedly unpopular for so long that players are used to performing without giving the ongoing ownership fire-storm a moment’s thought. The Commanders’ athletes are probably more concerned with trying to compete in a loaded division after years of missed chances to “command” a much-weaker field in the NFC East. On the positive side, Washington has won 3 extremely-close games in a row to reach .500 on the season.

However, the tight point spread isn’t fair enough to the Vikings, who had episodes trying to beat the resilient Cardinals last weekend and still emerged with an 8-point win and a cover. Minnesota has been spectacular as a pick-to-cover this season, defeating the Bears by 7, the Packers by 16, and the Dolphins, Packers, and Cardinals by more than a touchdown each. Plus the potential passing game mismatch on Sunday with Kirk Cousins throwing to Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings are an excellent pick ATS.

WagerBop’s Pick: Vikings ATS (-3.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, October 6)

Speaking of the Cardinals-Vikings game in Week 8, losing Arizona may have played better against the NFC North’s leading Norsemen than in a majority of the Big Red’s breathless comeback wins. The Cardinals’ offense was more disciplined, its defense won the line-of-scrimmage every so often, and Arizona ultimately fell prey to a meaner pass rush than what the rival Seahawks have to offer on the road in 2022. The Seahawks’ temporary division lead has pundits overrating Pete Carroll’s team and is helping maintain a brave (+2) spread even though the NFC West has now ceded its superiority, making it a question of who’s got the playmakers to win ragged, familiar games.

WagerBop’s Pick: Cardinals ATS (-2)

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)

This past weekend was a landscape of tight NFL betting odds. Are NFL odds-makers so itchy to offer-up wide point spreads that they are forcing lopsided markets on sportsbooks, like a sloppy Saturday gambler who keeps taking USC to cover?

The Chiefs (-12.5) deserve double-digit spreads at home against pedestrian rivals. KC’s front office has done a good job of replacing superstars like Tyreek Hill with a new assortment of skill players, contributing to Kansas City’s offense as much in aggregate as Hill often did by himself on Sundays. The Chiefs’ (+700) odds to lift the Lombardi have climbed significantly, the 3rd-best mark behind those of the Bills and the Eagles. The Chiefs’ decisive victory over the 49ers sent a message to the rest of the league as well. Not so insignificantly, Pat Mahomes‘ team also comes off a kkkkkkkk going into Sunday Night Football against the visiting Titans, the latter team a (+480) long-shot to win in Kansas City.

But if Bills-Jets is an example of Las Vegas forgetting the season, then the lines for the Chiefs vs Titans are set in ignorance of the present scenario. Tennessee supporters are thrilled to have RB Derrick Henry back in dominant form, and the team HQ has to be lighting up as if Christmas and New Year’s came several weeks early. Tennessee’s very physical brand of football begins putting a kibosh on high-octane teams when autumn’s leaves start to turn, and chilly Kansas City weather may simply rouse the determined guests. Weekend winds sustaining into Sunday would be bad news for KC bettors too.

WagerBop’s Pick: Titans ATS (+12.5)