NFL Week 3 Betting Picks: Cardinals vs Rams Parlay Bet and Monday Night Point Total Wager

The conundrum of “moneyline or point spread” keeps coming up in WagerBop’s college football predictions, and I’m sorry to say that “value” odds-sharks are not going to be pleased with our National Football League recommendations this Sunday.

“Predictions” and handicaps are not the same as bets wagered, and once you’ve got a forecast on an underdog that you think could potentially exceed expectations on a given day, bettors naturally look for the best payoff odds on that underdog. Predicting a handful of NFL ‘dogs to flourish on Sunday afternoon, and then passing up on ML bets at fattened odds, investing in cautious ATS picks instead, could be a waste.

But there’s a school of thought among some newer handicappers that “betting odds value” is largely a myth in a game based on picking winning outcomes. If a team has a far, far better chance to win than its opponent, then that’s the betting market you should try to play, even if the payout odds aren’t so nice and shiny. If a team has a far better chance to cover a significant underdog point spread than win straight-up, then there’s not much genuine “value” in the moneyline, no matter how glittery the odds.

“Glittering” odds are among the tools of an old-fashioned sportsbook operator anyway, someone who doesn’t see sports wagering as games-0f-skill contested for sweepstakes and governed by an impartial dealer, but instead a daily opportunity to catch the next “sucker” with a too-good-to-be-true market.

The way to a steady sportsbook profit is to have winning seasons, and the way to create winning seasons is to make the highest-percentage picks. Besides, some of this Sunday’s NFL underdog picks at WagerBop can be such frustrating straight-up picks on occasion that readers should gladly trade any jackpot-odds potential for a nice, calm heart-rate this weekend.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, September 25)

There are only a few direct parallels between Buffalo of the AFC and the L.A. Rams of the NFC. The contrast between the teams is something that helped to build anticipation for a Week 1 game this season, in which the Bills lambasted the defending Super Bowl champions with points to spare.

However, there is something the Bills and Rams do have in common in 2022-23, which is that each club may benefit from surprisingly puny division slates at points throughout the season. With Bill Belichick approaching the twilight of his coaching career, the New England Patriots are not as terrifying anymore. The New York Jets, meanwhile, are even shoddier without former QB Geno Smith than with him. Ironically for a team that has been as cursed by Bill Belichick as the next AFC title contender over the years, the 2-0 Bills could walk to a division title and a terrific playoff seed in January without having to beat too many solid rivals.

The Dolphins (+5.5) are an exemption to that positive trend for Buffalo, even though upstart Miami is handicapped with a fairly-extensive underdog’s point spread and a near 2-to-1 moneyline with the commanding Bills coming to call on Sunday. But the prevailing point spread may not account for the news that QB Tua Tagovailoa appears to be taking over NFL games at will in the late-going, exactly as the phenom once did at Alabama.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen and Tua’s inexhaustible production in late summer could help to motivate plenty of “Over” picks on FanDuel Sportsbook’s Miami-Buffalo point total line of (52.5). Nevertheless, the Bills almost always suffer at some point midseason a few “weird” unlucky spells on offense, and that propensity won’t go anywhere no matter how inflated a good showing in September makes the team feel about itself. The Miami Dolphins on moneyline picks or ATS bets make a higher-percentage play in Week 3, with the underdogs competing at home and chock-full of energy following last week’s scorching rebound.

WagerBop’s Pick: Dolphins ATS (+5.5)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, September 25)

After beginning the 2022-23 season on top of the world (or at least the sea) with the Norsemen’s dominant win over Green Bay, it has been a tale of 2 kickoffs for the Minnesota Vikings. Predictions seemed lovely for defeating a “weaker” opponent in Week 2, however, the Vikings were embarrassed in prime-time by the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Lions (+5.5) are another near-TD point spread underdog to take a solemn look at, in spite of the more marquee games on the midday calendar of Week 3. The athletic Lions are fun to watch, win or lose, and should be able to block the Vikings well enough to hang around within a single score on indoor rival ground.

Should Detroit win, or the Miami Dolphins for that matter, readers might fault the blog for only recommending point-spread picks on the almost identical odds of 2 underdogs. But there is hardly a need to remind fans how frustrating Detroit can be on the moneyline as an underdog (or a favorite) pick to win.

WagerBop’s Pick: Lions ATS (+5.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Sunday, September 25)

Another overvalued ATS pick, Philadelphia, is kicking off early on Sunday and touted handsomely at (-6.5) points, approaching a full TD + XP on the betting board. Week 2’s exceptional prime-time win is the culprit, for as the Eagles triumphed easily over Minnesota, Washington lost to Detroit on a less favorable day.

The hype train that is Jalen Hurts is likely to run fast and belchy by-turns in 2022, even though the Philadelphia QB will continue to be a Daily Fantasy draft linchpin on a weekly basis. The Eagles’ coaches, being from the 31 non-Baltimore franchises who believe a starting QB is less vulnerable in the pocket than when sliding for a 1st down on a triple-option carry, are perhaps already working on ways to limit Hurts’ rushes in each regular-season contest. It is easy to forget that Colin Kaepernick was once a prodigy running the dual-threat “Pistol” offense for San Francisco. That is until the 49ers’ decided that the offense was too effective, and not boring enough, and the team’s demand that Kaepernick play like an “NFL” passer caused them to begin losing.

The defense from D.C. did not allow a 75-yard rusher in Week 2 and outplayed Detroit for nearly the entire 2nd half of a bout in which the losing team self-destructed before the halftime interruption. Nevertheless, in that episode, the 1-1 Commanders are showing the kind of early-season determination that makes even a non-contending team into a threat at home. Especially given what could be the first chilly, foreboding day of pigskin in D.C. this year, once again, the underdog is a messy-but-intelligent pick ATS.

WagerBop’s Pick: Commanders ATS (+6.5)

L.A. Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, September 25)

Thursday Night Football, often considered to be a “sleepy” brand by National Football League aficionados, put SoFi Stadium to sleep in the worst way in Week 1 as Buffalo browbeat the defending champion L.A. Rams in a 31-10 thrashing. Von Miller, the transient All-Pro linebacker, sawed through his former team’s offensive line, while the Rams defensive line struggled. Cooper Kupp, superstar WR, was all cooped up. Spectators experienced in Sean McVay’s team’s trends could dismiss the opening loss as another strangely flat performance in September from an otherwise championship-caliber team. However, the worrisome questions about the Mountain Goats are based less on how the franchise looked in defeat against Buffalo, and more on what Los Angeles could be lacking when the 2022-23 lineup does begin performing at full force. For instance, Aaron Donald is getting triple-teamed and may not inflict as much mayhem on opposing QBs without the departed Von Miller to draw scrutiny. The same conundrum may apply to Kupp, who is a spectacular WR on a top unit, but inept at dominating by himself while surrounded by an average cast.

All such aspects of handicapping Los Angeles ’22 could lead to the Rams drawing few “parlay” picks at (-185) odds to beat Arizona on the road Sunday afternoon, though a pick at longer than 1-to-2 odds can help win a parlay by limiting the number of picks necessary to score a fat kick-back.

Let’s go against the grain on another “too pricey” betting market. The Cardinals’ comeback victory over Las Vegas on the road ironically made the point that Arizona’s play goes up and down without home-field advantage affecting things much of the time. An outstanding defense can be kept afloat by a home crowd, but a Cardinal defense that is played 1-2 good quarters and 6 crummy frames so far will not be saved by the Big Toaster.

It is not the Mountain Goats who are a bad pick at 1-to-2, but the Cardinals who should only be considered an ATS pick, with little chance to beat a more complete team on Sunday.

WagerBop’s Pick: Rams (-185) (With Parlay)

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (Sunday Night Football)

The virtual 1-to-1 odds for San Francisco to win in prime-time are among the most peculiar of the available picks for Week 3. It is true that Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson knows Sunday’s opposing defense well, the Broncos have moved the football satisfactorily between the 20-yard lines to theoretically win time-of-possession and limit a revived Jimmy Garoppolo’s opportunities to throw TD passes. However, the Broncos are also lining up on 1st down and goal like it’s 4th-and-10 from the 50-yard line, and the Mile High club’s new “finesse” approach to the Red Zone is a bad match for a physical NFC West rival.

WagerBop’s Pick: 49ers (-124)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Monday Night Football)

As of late August, it’s hard to believe anyone had the New York Giants favored to win MNF this week. Yet there is the Big Blue as a tiny (-1) favorite over the visiting Dallas Cowboys in a nighttime rivalry game with a very careful (39.5) Over/Under point-total line.

The Cowboys were a 18-to-1 preseason Super Bowl pick prior to offensive lineman Tyron Smith going down with a long-term knee injury, and QB Dak Prescott’s prolonged injury highlights the peril that other Cowboy skill players (and Prescott) are in. In the meantime, however, the Giants are getting better behind a backfield that is healthier after many years of waiting and hoping. An injury to rusher Leonard Williams could hurt, but the team’s young defense has been surpassing expectations, making New York into a potential division contender in ’22 even if the NFC East is bound for better things.

Cowboys backup-turned-starting QB Cooper Rush is not getting as much publicity as the newly “re-anointed” Jimmy Garoppolo, but the Big D offense looks proficient and smooth with Rush at the wheel. We are liking a pair of undervalued offenses, in fact, to get the point total to a respectable margin in this rivalry scrum. With a backup QB performing behind center, this could be the only time the Dallas Cowboys offense is ever “underrated.”

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (39.5)