Positive Drug Test Doesn’t Budge Lines for Clemson-Notre Dame Semifinal

Are you a Power Rangers fan?
Well, you should be, even if you prefer football to children’s TV.

Dabo Swinney’s epic defensive front-4 at Clemson is known by aliases Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Austin Bryant and Christian Wilkins, but they’ve taken to dressing up as the Mighty Morphin’ superheroes on Halloween and the moniker has stuck.

Each of the quartet could prove to be an NFL 1st-rounder. Wilkins and Farrell are consensus All-Americans. Lawrence made the 1st-string All-ACC Team in 2018.

When the Tigers played the prolific spread offense of NC State, they tackled the Wolfpack in the backfield double-digit times and won 41-7. Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett’s stat line vs Clemson in the ACC Championship Game resembled that of a college QB playing against an NFL defense – Pickett went 4-of-16 for 8 yards passing (yes, 8 yards passing) along with an interception and 2 lost fumbles. That’s domination with a capital D…and it earned Clemson a double-digit margin on the point spread against underdog Notre Dame in the CFP.

Except now, there’s a fly in the ointment. Lawrence has failed a drug test, coming up positive for trace amounts of the banned substance Ostarine. Unless a follow-up test is negative, Lawrence (and 2 other Clemson players) could miss not only the College Football Playoff semifinal against Notre Dame but the final as well.

So far the Vegas line for Saturday’s elimination game at Jerry World is not budging. The point spread remains right where it was on Monday morning, Clemson giving (-12.5) points to the Fighting Irish.

Given that the Tiger secondary is anything but consistent, why is the betting public not reacting to the favorites’ biggest strength on defense taking a potentially massive blow just a few days before the contest?

Drug Test, Shrug Fest

Maybe it’s Trevor Lawrence who has Vegas holding firm on its collective handicap.

The sensational frosh QB may look like a carefree surfer, but he’s shined at every opportunity since taking over for former Clemson signal-caller Kelly Bryant, and his supporting cast may be the best in the FBS. Travis Etienne is a nearly-unstoppable tailback running behind a big and confident OL, and tall sophomore Tee Higgins is leading a WR corps that includes Hunter Renfrow and Amari Rodgers.

Notre Dame will need to keep up by ground and air to have a chance. The Irish traded a small bit of dynamism in its running game when Brandon Wimbush was swapped out for new starting QB Ian Book. But Book is plenty fast on the scramble himself, and more-importantly has brought a new level of efficiency to the UND passing attack.

Wimbush was used creatively as a ball-carrier in a recent 36-3 win over Syracuse, while RB Dexter Williams scared the Orange defense enough for Book to find WRs Chase Claypool and Miles Boykin wide open on the outside and down the middle.

But we know Brian Kelly’s team can run, and that its short passing game is efficient. Those skill-sets alone will not beat the Clemson Tigers.

Despite the presence of stud LBs Drue Tranquill and Te’von Coney, the Irish defense is not good enough to contain Lawrence and Etienne for 4 quarters of football, and so a few nifty bubble-screens won’t produce enough yards to outscore the favorites.

The only way Notre Dame is going to beat Clemson is to throw deep. Book has not yet proven himself as an elite bomber. But against a defensive backfield that gave up 500+ yards to South Carolina QB Jake Bentley a few weeks ago, he’ll have every opportunity to change that.

When a Line Ought to be Moving…But Isn’t 

There should be some type of line movement based on Dexter Lawrence’s potential absence in Arlington on Saturday. But there isn’t so far, and it may be due to an illusion that has plagued sports gamblers since the first-ever wager was placed.

Despite endless talk of “feeling” a team or “not trusting” another, there is no preordained outcome on any gridiron. The winner of Clemson-UND is not floating in the ether, just waiting to be called in advance. The victor will be determined on the field.

The public wants to find out if Lawrence will play, or not. If he is disqualified, then everyone will reevaluate the match-up and the point spread will likely change. If he is ruled eligible, the spread might even tick further in Clemson’s direction.

Yet neither of those betting scenarios take into account that handicapping is the science of probability, not a foretelling of fates.

It’s bonkers that Notre Dame isn’t getting more action at (+12.5) given that one of Clemson’s crucial cogs could be sitting. Not only would the Tigers lose some pocket-pressure if Lawrence is sidelined, the drug test story is already an unwelcome distraction for Swinney’s outfit.

The % likelihood of the favorite covering ATS has gone down, but the spread remains right where it is.

Until this week, my pick was the under (55) based on Clemson’s ability to put Ian Book in 3^rd down and long.  But until the moneyline (UND +375) or the spread adjust to the latest headlines, a different handicap is in order.

I’m not taking Notre Dame ATS, because if Clemson gets rolling late and the Irish defense is tired, a 2-touchdown lead for the Tigers is just a couple of gnarly waves, I mean, a couple of big Trevor Lawrence-to-Tee Higgins passes away.

But is it now more plausible that the #3 seeded Gold & Blue could score a straight-up CFP win over a snake-bitten opponent who’s missing a foundational rock at the LOS? Yes indeed.

Take UND on the moneyline at the current odds. You’ll still have a chance to prevail even if the Power Rangers are all together on Saturday afternoon, and there’s no turning down an upset-market with a payoff that’s handsomer than it should be.