Pre-Week 17 NFL Playoffs Forecast – Postseason Odds and Bracket Predictions

How do we Get our NFL Playoffs Data?

FiveThirtyEight provides a wealth of NFL playoff odds information and is cited often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2022-23 postseason as well as their Super Bowl equity.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football. Current record is the most important but remaining strength of schedule and health of star players weigh heavily as well.

8 teams couldn’t survive the first 16 weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season and are already eliminated. 9 NFL teams have already punched their tickets – leaving the remaining 15 teams vying for the final 5 playoff spots over the final 2 weeks.

NFL is Using the Same Expanded Playoffs Format Since 2020

The NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 14 beginning in the 2020 season. This is the first expansion of the NFL postseason since the field changed from 10 to 12 in 1990.

Division winners will receive the 1-4 seeds in their conference based upon their regular season record. Seeds 5-7 will belong to the Wild Cards, of which there are now 3 in each conference.

Besides keeping more fanbases interested for longer, an added benefit of the 14-team field is that each conference now has just one bye. This will create more meaningful games among top teams late in the regular season. Gone are the days of 13 and 14-win teams resting starters late in the season because they already have the 2-seed clinched.

Using FiveThirtyEight‘s season predictions, we can put together the potential 2022-23 NFL playoff bracket for amusement and speculation. Here it is!

AFC East Division

Buffalo Bills 12-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched AFC East Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 20%. The highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: BUF (-1) @ CIN (11-4)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Bills have the division locked up for the 3rd season in a row but are still in hot pursuit of the AFC’s lone first-round bye through the Wild Card Round of the postseason. No resting starters this year.

Buffalo’s main competition for the 1-seed is Kansas City (12-3), with the Bengals a game behind at 11-4 and the only other team mathematically alive for the bye.

FiveThirtyEight indicates that Buffalo is more likely to earn the bye than Kansas City (46% vs 43%), but the Bills do not have an easy final 2 games. This Sunday, the Bills take on those very Bengals who are a dark horse for the 1 seed. In Week 18, Buffalo hosts a Patriots team who is still likely to be in contention and playing for something.

Although not likely, the Bills could clinch the AFC’s 1 seed this weekend with a win in Cincinnati and a Chiefs loss. Bovada has the Bills as 1-point favorites on the road, but Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points at home against a 4-11 Broncos squad – the largest spread on the Week 17 slate.

Buffalo will eliminate Cincinnati from bye contention with a win this weekend. The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City thanks to their Week 6 win at Arrowhead. This means Buffalo controls their own destiny for the bye – requiring just 2 more wins to lock it up. There is a very high likelihood the Chiefs win out as they finish with the 4-11 Broncos and the 6-9 Raiders. A misstep by Buffalo will re-open the door for Mahomes and Co.

Should Buffalo not earn the bye and finish with the AFC’s 2 seed, their most likely Wild Card Round opponent would be the 8-7 Dolphins – an intradivisional foe.

Miami Dolphins 8-7

538 Playoff%: 59%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.2%

Week 17 Matchup/Line: MIA (+3) @ NE (7-8)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Dolphins are searching desperately for the solution to ending their 4-game skid. Once 8-3, the Fins were thinking divisional crown – even 1st-round bye. Now 8-7, Miami needs to win again just for a chance at a Wild Card berth.

Miami finishes with a couple of intradivisional foes – traveling to Foxborough this week and then hosting the Jets in Week 18.

The Dolphins’ clinching scenarios are rather straightforward. Win out and they are in with open arms at 10-7. Lose out and the door gets slammed in their face at 8-9.

Miami would need help if they finish 1-1 down the stretch. Dropping the New England game certainly gives them more wiggle room, however, than dropping the finale to the Jets would.

Albeit improbable, a win and a tie would also seal the deal for Miami as would tying each of their remaining 2 games and finishing 8-7-2.

The problem with the Dolphins’ remaining schedule is that both the Patriots and Jets are very much alive and need to win out. Nothing will be given to Miami … save for the possibility of an errant lateral this weekend in New England.

First-year head coach Mike McDaniel has to be kicking himself that his once 8-3 football team now owns just a 59% chance of reaching the playoffs and must defeat 2 hungry rival teams to clinch a Wild Card berth and play either the Bills or Chiefs in the 1st Round.

Note that FiveThirtyEight gives the Dolphins a miniscule 0.2% chance of winning Super Bowl 57. This is due to Miami’s daunting path just to earn a 7-seed and their ridiculously difficult 1st-round matchup against a top-tier title contender.

New England Patriots 7-8        

538 Playoff%: 20%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Pretty slim. Belichick is used to his Super Bowl equity being about 1,000 times higher … do the math.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: MIA (8-7) @ NE (-3)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Gosh, the Pats need that one back. New England would be sitting so pretty for a Wild Card bid at 8-7 had they not lateralled the game away in Las Vegas. As it stands today, the Pats are about a 4-to-1 underdog to play postseason football.

New England still controls their destiny, but these final two games (vs Dolphins and at Bills) are a gauntlet. Here is what the Pats need to happen: both Buffalo and Denver need to win in Week 17. This would increase New England’s odds to clinch exponentially.

The absolute best-case scenario for the Patriots is for the Bills to have nothing to play for in their Week 18 matchup. This only occurs if the Bills win this weekend and the Chiefs lose (to Denver).

With the 1st-round bye locked up, the Bills would almost certainly sit Josh Allen and Co. in a meaningless Week 18 game. This leaves only this weekend’s Dolphins tilt as the major obstacle between Bill Belichick and playoff football.

By the way, the Patriots are eliminated should they lose to the Dolphins this Sunday. This one is non-negotiable. Should the Pats win over Miami, it is still very likely they face a Bills team with something to play for in Week 18. The Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites against Denver this week and probably won’t lose.

There is a path for New England to win against Miami, lose against Buffalo, finish 8-9 and still make the playoffs. The Jets would need to lose Week 17 at Seattle. Miami would need to lose Week 18 in New York. The Titans would need to beat the Jaguars in Week 18. The Steelers would need to lose at least once. The Raiders couldn’t win out.

New York Jets 7-8

538 Playoff%: 15%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Like the Patriots before them, very slim.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: NYJ (-2) @ SEA (7-8)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Jets are in a jam here after dropping 4 straight to fall to 7-8. 15% playoff equity is not good, and New York does not control their own destiny.

Here is what needs to break the Jets’ way in the final 2 weeks of the 2022 regular season:

The Jets need to win out in Seattle Week 17 and in Miami Week 18. The Patriots cannot win out.

Very simple, yes, but not easy. Both of these games will be dogfights. It’s very ominous to need 2-straight wins from a team on a 4-game losing skid … plus some extra help.

NFC East Division

Philadelphia Eagles 13-2

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card.

538 Super Bowl%: 22%. The highest Super Bowl odds in the entire NFL.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: NO (6-9) @ PHI (-6)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Eagles are in the most enviable position in pro football. At 13-2, Philly clinches the NFC’s 1st-round bye with 1 more win (or 2 ties).

Should the Eagles drop each of their final 2 contests to the 6-9 Saints and the 8-6-1 Giants, they will almost certainly be caught from behind for the 1 seed with the Vikings, Cowboys and Niners lurking. Philly is 6-point favorites at home against New Orleans this week. It’s looking pretty good for the Eagles to get that 14th win Sunday and for Jalen Hurts to enjoy some much-needed rest.

A mere tie this week or next would clinch the Eagles the NFC East Division. Dallas not winning out (either tie or loss) would also do the trick.

Dallas Cowboys 11-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Still alive for the NFC East crown.

538 Super Bowl%: 9%. The 2nd-highest Super Bowl odds in the NFC.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: DAL (-12) @ TEN (7-8) on Thursday Night Football (12/29)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Cowboys have clinched a Wild Card berth and will almost certainly be the NFC’s 5-seed with no way to fall and a slim shot at usurping Philly up top.

It would take 2 wins from Dallas and 2 losses from Philly for the Cowboys to win the NFC East. However, winning out would not guarantee Dallas the first-round bye. Far from it. The Cowboys would need some losses from the Vikings and 49ers to finish atop the NFC – even at 13-4.

With 11 wins, the next-highest Wild Card hopeful in the NFC – the 8-6-1 Giants – cannot catch Dallas with 2 weeks remaining. The 5-seed is Dallas’ floor which would set them up for a road matchup with the NFC South winner – most likely Tampa.

Dallas and Tampa kicked off the season back in September. The Bucs dominated 19-3.

New York Giants 8-6-1

538 Playoff%: 91%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.2%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: IND (4-10-1) @ NYG (-6)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Giants won their biggest game of the year on Sunday Night Football in Week 16 – beating the Commanders 20-12 and giving themselves a massive leg up in the NFC Wild Card race.

New York controls their own destiny for the NFC’s 6 seed and still has a 72% chance of snagging a berth even with 2-consecutive losses to close out the year.

There is a very high likelihood the Giants will have the luxury of playing a backup-riddled Eagles team in Week 18. The Eagles clinch the 1st-round bye with a win over 6-9 New Orleans on Sunday and would then have nothing to play for in Week 18.

Washington Commanders 7-7-1

538 Playoff%: 29%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.1%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: CLE (6-9) @ WAS (-2)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Commanders couldn’t best their intradivisional foes (New York) on Sunday Night Football in Week 16 and put themselves in a precarious position.

Washington knew they’d have to travel to San Francisco on Christmas Eve – a place where many a team walk away wounded and winless. They lost 37-20 – sinking their record to 7-7-1.

The Commanders are fortunate that both the Seahawks and Lions also lost last week as Washington could very easily be on the outside looking in right now.

Because of these losses from their competition, the Commanders still control their destiny for a Wild Card berth. Washington finishes with 2 home games – 6-9 Cleveland in Week 17 and 11-4 Dallas the following week.

Washington should be rooting hard for Philadelphia this weekend, as an Eagles win would lock Dallas in as the NFC’s 5-seed and give the Cowboys absolutely nothing to play for in their Week 18 romp with the Commanders.

FiveThirtyEight gives Washington only a 29% chance of making the playoffs, but this assumes playing Dallas at full-strength in the finale. Washington’s chances of making the playoffs are certainly higher than 29%.

NFC West Division

San Francisco 49ers 11-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched NFC West division.

538 Super Bowl%: 8%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: SF (-10) @ LV (6-9)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Niners are the hottest team under the shield – winners of 8 straight. No one in the Bay Area thought San Francisco would be competing for the first-round bye back when the Niners were 3-4, but at 11-4 there is a much more plausible chance.

Of course, 1 more win by Philadelphia locks it up, but the 49ers would be the favorites along with Minnesota to capture the throne should the Eagles lose out.

The Niners only hold a 2% chance of snagging the bye and will almost certainly be hosting a game on Wild Card weekend. Today, San Fran possesses the NFC’s 3 seed and is pitted against the Giants. Should the Niners surpass Minnesota in the standings, San Fran will stand to play either the Commanders, Seahawks, Packers or Lions in the 2-vs-7 game.

Seattle Seahawks 7-8

538 Playoff%: 27%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Pete Carroll has done it before.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: NYJ (7-8) @ SEA (+2)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Seattle has dropped 3 straight to take them from a postseason shoo-in to a mere beggar not even in control of their own playoff destiny.

The Seahawks, Lions and Packers all sit at 7-8 – half a game behind the 7-7-1 Commanders for the NFC’s 7 seed. Seattle beat Detroit head-to-head in Week 4 but would lose to Green Bay in a tiebreaker if both finish 9-8, due to conference record.

Seattle has a couple of tough games remaining – the 7-8 Jets and the new-look Rams led by Baker Mayfield. The Seahawks will be on life support if they don’t win out. Even if they do win out and get to 9-8, they’ll need some help. Both the Packers and Commanders would need to drop a game for the 9-8 ‘Hawks to clinch.

AFC West Division

Kansas City Chiefs 12-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched AFC West Division for the 7th-straight season.

538 Super Bowl%: 19%. The 2nd-highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: DEN (4-11) @ KC (-12.5)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Kansas City clinched another division title and is still a 43% chance to nab the AFC’s first-round bye. The Chiefs and Bills sit deadlocked at 12-3, but the Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

KC will overtake pole position by winning out and seeing the Bills lose to either the Bengals in Week 17 or the Patriots in Week 18.

As it stands today, the Chiefs will be the AFC’s 2 seed and play the 7-seed Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend.

Los Angeles Chargers 9-6

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.6%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: LAR (5-10) @ LAC (-6.5)

2022 Playoff Scenario: LA is officially in after their 20-3 Monday Night Football win over Indy in Week 16. With no hopes at a division title, the final 2 weeks offer the Chargers nothing in the way of upward mobility.

Las Vegas Raiders 6-9

538 Playoff%: 0.6%. Only Wild Card chances, no division. By far the slimmest odds of any team still technically in playoff contention.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Compared to their odds of making the playoffs … not bad.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: SF (11-4) @ LV (+10)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Winning out to get to 8-9 would raise Vegas’ playoff chances to a whopping 7%. Here is what else the Raiders need to break their way to secure a playoff spot:

The Dolphins lose out. The Jets lose to Seattle in Week 17. The Patriots lose to Buffalo in Week 18. The Steelers don’t win out. Either the Titans or Jaguars finish below 8-9.

AFC North Division

Cincinnati Bengals 11-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Also the favorite to win the AFC North Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 10%. The Bengals made it to the Super Bowl last year – losing 23-20 to the LA Rams.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: BUF (12-3) @ CIN (+1) on Monday Night Football

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Bengals are a game up on the 10-5 Ravens for the AFC North crown. Cincy even has an outside shot at the 1st-round bye by winning out and praying for some help.

The division will probably come down to a Week 18 matchup against Baltimore in Cincinnati. Today, the Bengals occupy the AFC’s 3 seed and would host the 6-seed Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

Baltimore Ravens 10-5

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Still alive for the AFC North crown.

538 Super Bowl%: 3%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: PIT (7-8) @ BAL (-2.5) on Sunday Night Football

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Ravens are a game behind Cincinnati for the AFC North crown but still control their own destiny thanks to tiebreakers.

Should Baltimore fall short of the division title, they will most likely be the 5 seed and travel to face the AFC South winner (either Titans or Jaguars) in the Wild Card Round.

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8

538 Playoff%: 3%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: PIT (+2.5) @ BAL (10-5) on Sunday Night Football

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Steelers need a host of events to break their way over these final 2 weeks if they are to complete their comeback from 2-6 all the way to AFC playoffs.

For starters, Pittsburgh needs to win out. This would get them to 9-8 and bump their playoff chances all the way to 12%. Even then, the Steelers would still need Miami to lose out and the Jets to lose at Seattle in Week 17. Furthermore, Pittsburgh would need the Pats to lose at Buffalo in Week 18.

NFC North Division

Minnesota Vikings 12-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched NFC North Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 5%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: MIN (+3.5) @ GB (7-8)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Vikings win ugly and lose uglier but still hold a 12-3 record – good for 2nd in the NFC. Sure, Minnesota could finagle their way into the 1st-round bye if Philly loses out, but that’s not worth discussing (2% chance).

Minnesota’s main focus down the stretch is on maintaining their 1-game lead over both the Cowboys and 49ers for the NFC’s 2 seed. The Vikings would host the 7 seed if the season ended today – which right now is the Commanders but could easily become the Seahawks, Lions or Packers by season’s end.

Detroit Lions 7-8

538 Playoff%: 24%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.2%. Lions fans will take it.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: CHI (3-12) @ DET (-6)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Detroit reverted back to the “same old Lions” Saturday – squandering a golden opportunity to move into the NFC’s top 7. Each of the teams ahead of Detroit in the Wild Card chase (Giants, Commanders, Seahawks) lost in Week 16 action.

All Detroit needed was a win over the so-so Panthers and they would replace the Commanders as the conference’s current 7 seed. The Lions lost 37-23 and surrendered 320 yards of rushing to Carolina – 240 of which came in the first half.

At least the Lions spared their fans the agony of a close, gut-wrenching loss. Detroit opted to get blown out – trailing 24-7 at half and closing the gap by 3 measly points in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

This loss tanks Detroit’s playoff chances from around 40% down to 24%. To compound matters, Green Bay won in Miami on Christmas Day. This is huge as the Lions are scheduled to make their annual pilgrimage to Lambeau Field in Week 18, and they were really hoping Green Bay would be out of the hunt.

The Lions want to see Jordan Love and a smattering of other 2nd-stringers in that contest – not Aaron Rodgers at home in a must-win.

At 7-8, the Lions sit a half game behind the 7-7-1 Commanders and a head-to-head tiebreaker behind the 7-8 Seahawks. Detroit finishes with Chicago and Green Bay. The Lions are large favorites against the Bears at home this week but are sure to be dogs on the frozen tundra January 8th.

Detroit no longer controls their own destiny. Winning out and finishing 9-8 would give the Lions a 69% shot at nabbing that 7th seed, but they would still need help.

Green Bay Packers 7-8

538 Playoff%: 27%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.2%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: MIN (12-3) @ GB (-3.5)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Packers were 4-8 but in classic Aaron Rodgers fashion have turned it on when they needed to and rejoined the playoff conversation.

The Packers do not control their own destiny. Winning out and getting to 9-8 would not be enough. Green Bay would still need a Commanders loss to clinch or have the Giants lose out and fall to 8-8-1.

NFC South Division

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-8

538 Playoff%: 70%. Favorite to win the NFC South Division which is, by far, their most likely path to the postseason.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.4%. Isn’t this a tad low for 7-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady?

Week 17 Matchup/Line: CAR (6-9) @ TB (-3)

2022 Playoff Scenario: Tom Brady is pulling his magic again. The Bucs are a large favorite to win their division and host a playoff game despite the sub-.500 record.

There is still a path for Tampa Bay to lose the division and still reach the postseason as a Wild Card at 8-9. Imagine this:

The Bucs lose to Carolina in Week 17 but beat Atlanta in Week 18. The Lions lose at least once and so do the Packers. The Seahawks follow suit. The Commanders lose out. That, ladies and gentlemen, would put Tampa in as the NFC’s 7 seed.

In all likelihood, Tampa will just win the NFC South and none of this will matter.

Carolina Panthers 6-9

538 Playoff%: 29%. Carolina’s only hope of clinching a playoff berth is catching Tampa in the NFC South Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.3%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: CAR (+3) @ TB (7-8)

2022 Playoff Scenario: It’s a pretty simple clinching scenario for Carolina – win out and they win the NFC South. That’s right, a 6-9 team controls their own destiny for the division.

Dropping the Week 18 contest to New Orleans would hurt but still give the Panthers a fighting chance for the South crown at 7-10. Guess who wins the 3-way tiebreaker between the Bucs, Saints and Panthers. You guessed it! Carolina.

New Orleans Saints 6-9

538 Playoff%: 3%. Somehow the Saints have both divisional and Wild Card paths to the postseason.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Pretty tiny chance.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: NO (+6) @ PHI (13-2)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Saints should probably win out to be safe … and then pray for loads of help.

AFC South Division

Jacksonville Jaguars 7-8

538 Playoff%: 76%. The Jaguars have both divisional and Wild Card paths to the postseason and are a large favorite to win the AFC South.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.7%. A share of Super Bowl equity Urban Meyer could only dream of possessing.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: JAX (-4.5) @ HOU (2-12-1)

2022 Playoff Scenario: While the Jags do have Wild Card paths to the postseason, they constitute just 2% of their total playoff equity. If Jacksonville is getting in, it’s going to be as the AFC South champion. It’s division title or bust.

Jacksonville was going nowhere fast at 4-8, but 3-straight wins paired with a 5-game skid by the Titans put Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence and Co. in control of their postseason destiny.

The Jags travel to face the worst team in the NFL – Houston – this weekend before gearing up for the “big one” – a Week 18 date with Tennessee. Beat Tennessee again and they’re in. Lose and they’re out (save for some possible Wild Card shenanigans). It’s that simple.

Tennessee Titans 7-8

538 Playoff%: 26%. Tennessee’s only playoff path is catching Jacksonville in the AFC South standings. They are currently behind due to head-to-head tiebreaker.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%.

Week 17 Matchup/Line: DAL (11-4) @ TEN (+12) on Thursday Night Football

2022 Playoff Scenario: Wow. What happened, Vrabs? The Titans have dropped 5 straight to fall to 7-8 from 7-3. It’s a simple game now – beat Jacksonville in the rematch in Week 18 and they’re back in. Today, however, Tennessee is out.