Predicting Stanford vs Cal and Other Big Games in College Football Week 13

Silly me, I went into 2019 thinking there were 15 weeks of the FBS regular season, followed by the conference title clashes.

Upon further review, it turns out Week 15 is the round of conference championships. Week 14 will herald Rivalry Weekend in which storied schools meet in scrums to determine bragging rights and (on-occasion) bowl placement or eligibility.

It will be as fun to handicap those games as it always is. The Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama at noisy Jordan-Hare Stadium. Bedlam in Oklahoma as the Sooners take on the Cowboys for in-state hardware. Clean Old Fashioned Hate between Georgia and Georgia Tech, which may turn into a clean old-fashioned whooping as the Ramblin’ Wreck has given-up on the Flexbone offense and is paying a predictable price in ‘19. Oregon State at Oregon in the…in the…what’s the name of Oregon’s state-championship game again? Maybe the Everyone is More Stoned Than They Look Bowl or the Bad Time For Fishing But We’re All In Eugene Anyway Bowl.

(Actually it’s the Civil War, but given the state of American politics these days, we’ll call it the Relatively-Civil Civil War. Especially since Oregon State’s likely to be out of it by the 4^th quarter.)

There is no harder prediction to make than a rivalry battle. Emotions run high, and underdogs either win in dramatic fashion or lose spectacularly. Moneyline gambling on Rivalry Weekend is tough, and ATS betting can be even tougher, since the last thing on any coach’s mind will be how many points his team prevails by against a hated enemy…so long as the team prevails.

That means we’ve got to make headway (and dollars) while the iron is hot, or maybe before the Iron Bowl is hot.

We’d all like to avoid making risky wagers after falling behind at the sportsbook, so Week 13’s myriad of FBS betting opportunities can be sort of like the 9^th frame in bowling. Spares are nice – but setting up the 10^th frame with a “foundation” strike is the real ticket.

There’s 1 rivalry game this Saturday which can’t be beat by anything planned for next week – the annual Big Game between Stanford and California. Strangely enough I’m more confident about my Stanford vs Cal pick than on some of Week 13’s less tradition-laden contests.

But unfortunately, there’s no prop-betting market on the Stanford Cardinal band running onto the field before the final whistle.

Scroll onward for 4 amazing, sensational, heart-rending predictions on Saturday’s upcoming action…or at least a few hand-picked likely winners.

Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers became something of an odd national headline last weekend, covering a massive spread vs powerful Ohio State even as the Scarlet Knights were blown-out yet another time to fall to 2-8 overall. Michigan State opened as more than a 3 TD + XP favorite in Piscataway this Saturday, but enough speculators were impressed by the Scarlet Knights against the Buckeyes that the point spread has shrunk to MSU (-20.5).

Michigan State is one of those rare hard-nosed, defense-oriented teams which can often pass better than it can run. This season is no exception, as MSU has averaged only 3.7 yards per-carry on the ground. But quarterback Brian Lewerke has had his problems through the air as well, tossing 9 interceptions and only 13 TD passes while missing the mark on nearly 45% of his throws.

It’s been up to a vaunted East Lancing defense to hold up the fort against the Big Ten. The unit looked fine against a beatable early stretch of the schedule, holding Tulsa to just 7 points in a victory (not bad considering the AAC is a strong point-scoring league if nothing else) and holding Northwestern to just 10 in another blow-out win. Michigan State’s D even shined in an early OOC loss to Arizona State. But injuries and a lack of dominating front-7 presence have ground down on MSU, and a miserable 5-game losing streak filled with injury problems has threatened to derail the Spartans’ bowl hopes. Michigan State actually looked pretty good in a 37-10 loss to Ohio State in early October, but last week’s 44-10 rivalry loss to Michigan helped to demonstrate how far a 4-6 team has fallen.

Did Rutgers’ offense come alive last week vs Ohio State or did the Buckeyes simply let down knowing they could coast to the finish line? OSU always had a stinker performance or 2 per-year in conference play under Urban Meyer, and perhaps that tendency still hasn’t gone away completely. Yet the Scarlet Knights only had 231 combined rushing and passing yards despite scoring 21 points by the end.

We’re still talking about a 2nd-tier Power-5 program against an outfit that’s been blown-out by almost every competent opponent. With bowl eligibility hanging in balance, MSU is going to want to get ahead, stay ahead, and make absolutely sure there is no way Rutgers – which benefited from OSU’s cautious 2-deep rotations and play-selection last Saturday – can possibly come back in the 2nd half. Also, an early east-coast kickoff could help Michigan State psychologically. There won’t be much time to stand around and remember the bitter losses of the last month – only time to wake up, warm up, and play.

Pick: Michigan State ATS

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame’s exemplary offense has been bothered most by physical, hard-hitting units. You can run as many fast and talented DBs onto the field as you like (UND 30, USC 27) or try all kinds of fancy blitzes (UND 52, Navy 20) but it won’t do much good. Irish O-linemen are adept at picking-up any kind of rush scheme and Book is re-writing the book on how to punish defenses – with his deep arm and with surprisingly-nimble legs when there’s no spy watching. Only a fierce front-7 that meets Notre Dame’s blockers head-on can consistently stalemate them, as Georgia, Michigan, and Virginia Tech have been able to do.

Does Boston College fit that bill at all? Maybe in mentality, but not necessarily in execution. BC’s quality defensive outings have been sporadic, and the ’19 team has more-often relied on offense to compensate.

QB Anthony Brown had a terrific passing performance in BC’s 41-39 loss to Louisville but did not play the entire game thanks to injury. Alternate signal-caller Dennis Grosel was excellent in a blow-out win over Syracuse 2 weekends ago, but his arm (and RB A.J. Dillon’s swift legs) were not enough to overcome Florida State on 11/9 as opposing QB James Blackmon passed for 346 yards and 2 TDs in FSU’s 38-31 triumph.

However, I doubt Brian Kelly will keep the high-flying aerial attack going against Boston College for 4 quarters on Saturday afternoon.

The Irish will still play with tempo much of the time, the expectation of which has helped lead to a healthy (64) point Las Vegas total. But BC will hunker-down on defense with just 2 games to go and 1 victory needed for a bowl berth. Meanwhile, Kelly will want to get his backfield going and moving the chains as the clock ticks away, what with a squad on the cusp of full health and a final late-November road trip to Stanford which may wind-up determining whether Notre Dame goes to the Cotton Bowl.

Pick: Under

Marshall Thundering Herd at Charlotte 49ers

The Over/Under total (55) is falling slightly for this afternoon match-up, indicative of Charlotte’s strong effort on defense over the 49ers’ last pair of wins.

Charlotte’s current 3-game winning streak began with a shoot-out win over North Texas. Talented opposing QB Mason Fine threw the bean all over the Carolinians’ home field on October 26th, posting 5 TDs and 0 picks as the Mean Green racked-up nearly 40 points. But dual-threat 49er QB Chris Reynolds and his senior tailback Benny LeMay combined for close to 600 rushing and passing yards with help of a rejuvenated offensive line and an exceptional day from WR Victor Tucker.

But then it was the D’s turn to shine. MTSU’s Asher O’ Hara was held to just 9 completions in a 34-20 Charlotte victory, and the 49ers mounted an impressive comeback while shutting-out UTEP in the 2nd half of a 7-point win on 11/9.

Charlotte is now at 5-5 and on the cusp of earning the 1^st bowl bid of the program’s brief run-to-date in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Marshall (-7) also comes in lava-hot, having prevailed in 5 straight contests dating back to a lay-up over Old Dominion on 10/12. RB Brenden Knox rushed for 220 yards as the Thundering Herd outlasted Lane Kiffin’s FAU Owls in a 36-31 triumph 6 days later. Still it was the Marshall defense that loomed large against Louisiana Tech last Friday as the unit did not allow a TD pass or a 100-yard rusher in a 3-touchdown win. Given those outcomes, maybe the O/U line will drop even further…but it probably shouldn’t.

I’m expecting back-and-forth fireworks. Charlotte’s defense isn’t elite enough to stop Marshall from scoring touchdowns, and the 49ers are likely to battle-back with their own high-octane offense. It won’t surprise me to see the hosts run some tempo in the 2nd and 3rd quarter just to try to build a lead against a strong opponent. If Marshall takes an early lead, Charlotte will open up with little to lose – 49er coaches know they’ve got a weaker foe in Old Dominion to potentially grab that 6^th win against next week.

Incidentally, don’t be surprised if the game comes down the final few minutes, making Charlotte an excellent pick to cover a TD + XP.

Pick: Charlotte ATS or Over

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal

National pundits won’t be that interested in The Big Game this year, though purists (and gamblers) almost always are. Neither program has had an easy row to hoe in Pac-12 play…in fact, each is still fighting to become bowl-eligible.

Stanford may have had the worst of it. The Cardinal has struggled to move the ball with a variety of QBs (a banged-up K.J. Costello has only managed to take the field 5 times so far) and has lost 3 out of the last 4 games after a rousing defeat of Washington. Run blocking – the heart and soul of the program under David Shaw – has been a big problem, and there’s been no dominant defense to fall back on when the attack won’t click.

Why is a 5-5 and somewhat-steadier Cal team a field-goal underdog according to Sin City ‘cappers, apart from playing The Big Game on the road this year? Probably because California’s QB-injury situation has been just as gloomy as Stanford’s, with an ailing Chase Garbers still listed “questionable” for the crucial trip as of mid-week.

Costello was ruled out as of Wednesday, however, causing the point spread to tick slightly in Cal’s direction, tightening to (+2.5) on the Golden Bears.

That’s why you should pick Stanford against the point spread, or even on the moneyline ((-135) at Bovada Sportsbook) if the price looks right from your bookmaker.

Garbers may not play – and if he does he’ll rely on Cal’s ground game to open-up play action opportunities. The Bears might not be able to get enough positive yards on 1st-down running plays to force the Cardinal to bring 8 men into the box.

Stanford’s WR corps remains long and talented no matter who is taking snaps, and the host’s receivers are likely to make the difference with clutch catches in the biggest game (the BIG game) of the year for both programs.

There’s also the hexing ability of The Tree to think about…

…or the trend of Stanford beating California in each of the last 9 meetings.

Pick: Stanford (-135) or ATS