Premier League Futures: 2022 Championship Odds, Best Bets for Top 4 and Relegation

The reason there aren’t always as many “prop futures” lines available on American sports is that the tradition of exhibition season, followed by “regular season,” followed by playoffs, followed by a Super Bowl or a “Finals,” is complex enough. Predictions on the finer points of the standings (not “tables”) are often reduced to gimmick markets as more than 12 teams get a fighting chance to advance in uneven brackets.

English football, of course, is another story. Teams don’t make the “playoffs” as a rule, and there’s no “preseason” outside of a few summer friendlies. For the Premier League’s betting community, making picks on the standings table is everything, since the “regular season” is everything in the EPL.

Standard EPL futures odds include lines on potential champions, top 6 finishers, relegated clubs, and even “reverse” odds on potential teams to fail in reaching any respective goal on the spring’s 38-match table.

The most intriguing wager for Premier League punters at present, however, is the “Top 4” betting market. Is it time to presume that Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Man United will assert big-money supremacy and coast into the automatic UEFA Champions League positions? Or does picking any of 4 exciting teams standing within 7 points of 4th place reveal superior savvy on the bettor’s behalf?

February’s “Top 4” Futures Odds on the Premier League

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chelsea -3500
Arsenal +135
Man Utd +160
Tottenham +240
West Ham +1700
Wolves +2300
Leicester +10000
Southampton +10000
Brighton +10000
Crystal Palace +10000
Aston Villa +10000

Picking door #2 may offer generous odds aside from the notable exception of Tottenham’s pricey line, a bet of shorter than 3-to-1 odds despite Spurs’ humble 39 points through 23 matches. Stranger still is that the popular underdog pick to finish top-4 relinquished 9 points in a recent trio of EPL matches, and until last Saturday, had not prevailed in league play since 1/19 when the club stunned Leicester with a mad comeback.

Last Saturday’s match was a corker. Harry Kane led Tottenham to an epic road upset of Manchester City, scoring his 2nd and decisive goal in the 95th minute to manufacture a 3-2 triumph. Kane’s trademark heroics certainly won’t hurt Spurs’ amount of drawn betting action in FanDuel soccer futures, but there’s hard analysis behind the optimistic odds on Spurs to ascend on the table. Tottenham Hotspur faces a non-EPL opponent in the 5th round of the FA Cup, sandwiched between league bouts against bottom-half clubs Everton, Burnley, and Leeds United.

Long-term Spurs bettors won’t be discouraged by the potential specter of a Middlesbrough-over-Tottenham upset in the FA Cup. In fact, it brings up a cold, calculating angle that could be helping shrink Lilywhites’ odds to earn another top-4 placement. EPL gamblers won’t care as much as Tottenham supporters do if Spurs fall in elimination, even if Lilywhites are mentally set-back from losing to a humble club from outside the Premier League. Tottenham’s relatively light schedule of competitions would grow even thinner if the FA Cup came off the ledger. The outcome would result in Spurs focusing only on an EPL schedule for the remainder of 2021-22. Indeed, the side was perceived to have been hampered by an arduous January domestic tournament schedule.

West Ham United currently stands at (+1700) odds and is 3 points ahead of Spurs on the EPL table despite the club’s long odds to finish top 4. West Ham hasn’t placed higher than 5th on England’s elite league table since the 1980s, before the Premier League was even a thing. Historical precedent goes a long way toward steering long-term odds on the EPL. Yet the 17-to-1 market still has betters thinking that taking a chance on Hammers will pay off.

Over the next several weeks, Hammers will face Wolves, Liverpool, and Tottenham, but supporters could also see West Ham pick up 3 points each in league matches against struggling sides like Everton and Burnley.

If Hammers hold serve against poor teams while manufacturing points vs big shots, they’ll potentially have the opportunity to smite Arsenal’s chances for a top-4 finish by winning in an April showdown.

Unfortunately, the upstarts did lose both 2021-22 matches against fellow top-4 contender Man United, and must play Man City twice in spring. That angle is pouring cold water on West Ham’s odds to vault into high placement within the Champions League.

Manchester United’s (+160) odds to finish top-4 could shrink quickly if Watford cannot out-play its -19 goal differential in an upcoming EPL bout at Old Trafford.

Ronaldo has been outspoken about Red Devils not meeting his expectations upon arrival, and most MUFC supporters tend to agree. But the club has a  “head start” over Arsenal, Wolves, and Spurs – albeit having played at least 2 more EPL matches than each – and Man United’s schedule is now reduced to Champions League and Premier League kickoffs only. MUFC is scoring more goals in league play in spite of Ronaldo, Marcus Rashford, and Paul Pogba combining to score just 2 of the club’s last 8 tallies. That’s a timely development, and a possible sign that a top-4 finish is reachable.

EPL Odds to Win Outright in 2022

Man City -430
Liverpool +340
Chelsea +7500

The dominance displayed by Man City has led to FanDuel Sportsbook futures odds that consist of exactly 3 Premier League sides. Despite the 1-to-4 favorites from City holding less than a 10-point lead on the table in winter, it seems like Sky Blues can only be caught by a single underdog.

Man City has played 26 league matches compared to Chelsea’s 25, and Tottenham’s upset of City from last weekend shows that making-up ground on Citizens isn’t an impossible dream. Christian Pulisic is healthy, scoring goals, and drawing better reviews for his appearances in the Premier League than against other CONCACAF opponents.

That being said, Blues are in the midst of dealing with an arduous tournament schedule, including dates on behalf of the Club World Cup, the UEFA Champions League, next week’s FA Cup fixture against Luton Town, and what’s sure to be an emotional EFL Cup Final against Liverpool on 2/27. As in 2020-21, the stars of Chelsea could be said to suffer the defects of their virtues, so good in elimination bouts that the full slate becomes impossible to conquer.

At nearly 4-1 odds, Liverpool remains a solid wager to lift the hardware this year. Assuming that Reds pick up 3 points against Leeds United this Wednesday, Salah’s side will go into the EFL Cup match not looking to prove a point against an opponent bound for a better league finish, but rather hoping to prevail without injuring any key footballers needed for the trophy run. Liverpool meets Man City on April 9th in a match surrounded by dates with vulnerable Reds opponents, making it strange that the odds are so top-heavy this early on.

Leicester City’s (+115) odds to finish top-half also deserve a second look. Foxes have slowly begun to awaken against a challenging slate that will get easier as pitches begin to thaw. However, the best “prop futures” pick on FanDuel’s EPL betting board is not on a club to improve, but rather on an underdog team to get worse come the spring weather.

2022 Premier League Relegation Futures Odds

Norwich -950
Watford -290
Burnley -160
Newcastle +280
Leeds +300
Brentford +320
Everton +430
Crystal Palace +1700
Aston Villa +9500
Southampton +10000
Leicester +10000

Thanks to the recently promoted side’s “Murderer’s Row” of a schedule over the next several weeks, Leeds United is an excellent (+300) bet to suffer relegation.

Watford and Norwich City’s hopeful appearances in recent fixtures lend credence to the notion that Leeds United’s 5 wins could soon tie-for or represent the worst W-mark in the EPL. Peacocks have dropped 11 points since upsetting West Ham in January, and have 6 matches lined up against Liverpool, Tottenham, Leicester, Villa, and Wolves.

Once Leeds meets Watford in April, Hornets, or another club currently below the relegation-line, could be playing to stamp the former team down to 19th or 20th on the table.

WagerBop’s EPL Futures Picks

Liverpool to Win English Premier League (+340)

Man United to Finish Top 4 (+160)

Leeds United to Be Relegated (+300)