Premier League Matchday 3 Odds and Preview: Can’t Forget Those Reds

I’ve got to fess up – 2 major boners by WagerBop in the past week can be directly traced to my malfeasance.

Baseball fans may have noticed our accurate-yet-misplaced “Chicago White Sox to win” pick at nearly 4-to-1 odds on Monday. The ChiSox did indeed score an upset. However, it was just a filing error – my real 4-to-1 pick was the Detroit Tigers, who lost by 1 run.

That’s nothing compared to the sin of last week’s English Premier League rundown. Thanks to a comedy of errors, every fixture of 10 was previewed and touted by WagerBop…except for Liverpool vs Southampton.

Liverpool is, as you may have heard, a somewhat (cough) important club in the overall grand scheme of football in the Kingdom.

Perhaps some supporters looked over the blog (and the betting board) and decided that Liverpool was left out because the match was too much of a 1-sided handicap to take literature on either side. But that’s not the case at all – 15-to-1 soccer wagers can be fun once in a while. And if you prefer the favorites in a mismatch, there’s always betting ATS or the O/U.

Besides, Southampton moneyline wagers did have a decent chance to pay off last Saturday, judging by the action at St. Mary’s Stadium. Reds could not pass sharply for most of the 1^st half against the characteristic, intense pressure put on by Saints.

The 2018-19 Champions League winners were all-but-impenetrable in response, however, and Sadio Mané struck in added time to finally give his side a 1-nil edge.

The clubs traded goals in the 2^nd frame to wind up with a 2-1 result in Liverpool’s favor.

In contrast, less world-renowned (and thinner favorite) Norwich City threw a party on home turf against visiting underdog Newcastle, as striker Teemu Pukki of Canaries announced his arrival as a dangerous attacker at the top club level.

But if Matchday 1 was full of expected and predictable outcomes, Matchday 2 was a flurry of surprises.

Tottenham drew with Man City in controversial style. Wolves frustrated Manchester United at Molineux Stadium once again. Sheffield United beat Crystal Palace with a clean sheet at Bramall Lane, and Leicester City managed a point from a fixture with Chelsea F.C…though Frank Lampard’s side hasn’t had much to offer in 2 games and may be considered an underdog against clubs like Foxes by the end of the season.

Will the 3^rd weekend of Premiership football turn into another stunner, or will the Goliaths begin to prevail again?

All odds below courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.

Aston Villa vs Everton

Toffees are a (+125) moneyline pick to win at Villa Park on Friday, a tasty number on a club that rebounded from disappointment on Matchday 1 to post a solid 1-0 victory over Watford.

Jordan Pickford is among my main reasons for liking Everton in long-shot futures markets this season, and it stands to mention that the keeper hasn’t allowed a goal in 2 matches.

Meanwhile, Villains threw up a little bit in the opening minutes of last week’s emotional meeting with Bournemouth. Cherries scored twice in 12 minutes and coasted to the finish line, and if nothing else, skipper Dean Smith’s backline will be on its toes against Richarlison and company this weekend. Scoring might prove harder than defending against an underrated and dynamic guest.

Pick: Everton to win and/or Under (2.5)

Norwich City vs Chelsea

This match could be remembered a memorable blunder by Las Vegas and London handicappers, almost as costly as those (+100000) futures lines from 2017 on the Vegas Golden Knights ice hockey club which almost won the NHL title.

Well, not quite. But the opening line really was eye-popping at (-500) on Chelsea F.C.

Chelsea has had its issues with a transfer ban and a coaching transition in mid-2019. However, pro ‘cappers who work for Bovada and other online betting giants were quick to make Blues a nearly prohibitive moneyline favorite for Saturday’s fixture with Canaries at Carrow Road. Even following Pukki’s amazing hat trick, the sportsbooks weren’t ready to adjust 5-to-1 lines on Norwich City too quickly.

But gamblers were, flooding the market with wagers on Canaries after seeing the striker erupt while Chelsea struggled for a 2^nd week.

Canaries are currently a (+330) wager and shrinking. I’m buying-in on anything longer than 3-to-1.

Pick: Norwich City

Brighton vs Southampton

Another reason Norwich City vs Chelsea is getting so much action is that it’s a stand-alone contest televised, as Ric Flair once put it, “nationally all over the world” on Saturday morning (early AM in the United States).

But the crush of kickoffs to follow will include multiple marquee teams, starting with a club that made a statement by beating domestic-tournament rival Watford 3-0 on Matchday 1.

Brighton & Hove Albion knows how to gobble-up points against teams it can outplay, and Saints probably qualify despite the brave performance against Liverpool last weekend. Southampton’s press will make it interesting but I’m thinking the benefit of host-supporters will help Seagulls stay composed and prevail at (+150) payoff.

Pick: Brighton

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace

I’d love to continue talking about soccer teams and how they play soccer matches, but we’re dealing with MUFC and Crystal Palace here – which means 4 words, mostly.

“Paul,” “Pogba,” “Wilfried,” and “Zaha.” Might as well deal with all 4 of those SEO terms important matters now.

Paul Pogba appears to be staying at United for the time being, causing tabloid editors around the world to wonder what the heck they should publish for 6 months. But it’s also good to see that the French midfielder is taking ownership of his role as a teammate, as when apologizing for missing a penalty kick against Wolves.

The superstar is also regretfully under siege by racist trolls on social media, and there has been an immediate outpouring of support for Pogba from fellow Red Devils.

Could these be the developments that bring unity to the dressing room again?

Meanwhile, Zaha is also staying put until likely January at CPFC…but Palace’s (+700) line-to-win on Saturday reflects that Eagles are on borrowed time with the forward.

Pick: United

Watford vs West Ham

It’s a battle for which club will have the worst start.

Hornets have been impotent on the attack and have earned 0 goals and 0 points from 2 winnable matches. Hammers, in contrast, at least managed a tally in last week’s draw with Seagulls.

Somehow Watford is a (+110) wager-to-win and shrinking. A trio of injuries are bothering West Ham’s probable lineup…but I still don’t like the favorites at that price.

Pick: West Ham

Sheffield United vs Leicester City

By this time, Liverpool supporters familiar with the chronology of Matchday 3 are on the edge of their seats, waiting to see if I pass over Reds again.

So I’ll keep this pick short and sweet. Gamblers have soured on Foxes (+125) after the club opened with a minus-ML to beat Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. Neither team has been bested in 2 matches apiece, and keeper Dean Henderson shined for Blades once again in a clean-sheet win over Palace last week.

Both moneylines are taboo, but I’m liking Under (2) at a (+115) Bovada payoff.

Pick: Under

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Saturday’s late match (afternoon in the USA) opened in Las Vegas with Liverpool taking sub-1-to-2 wagers. The club’s line-to-win has since shrunk to (-200).

Why exactly would the betting public’s opinion sway Liverpool’s way on such a short payoff line, as opposed to going to the high-payoff (+500) gamble on Arsenal?

After all, each club is undefeated in 2 Premiership appearances.

Reds have the far-superior recent track record, of course, and Salah could be due for a big day soon. Old-timers will point out that Gunners haven’t won at Anfield since the 2012-13 season. But Unai Emery’s side has quietly taken care of business so far and the injury situation at Arsenal appears to have improved in a hurry.

Given no real evidence to suggest gamblers are doing anything but taking the worldwide-popular club over a domestic lion, I’m going with the underdog (or under-lion) here.

Pick: Arsenal

A.F.C. Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Ah, here’s 1 of those “15-to-1” lines we talked about in this week’s intro.

Whoops – not quite. Cherries are “only” a (+1300) underdog against Sky Blues at Vitality Stadium in Sunday’s early match. Man City is “only” a 2-goal favorite.

There’s a school of thought that when City loses a match – and City will, eventually, most-likely lose a soccer match in major domestic or international play – it will be away from home. And didn’t last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Spurs show that vulnerability exists on Ederson’s backline?

Perhaps, but not against the attack from Cherries, a team blessed with an opening 2-week schedule of nothing but promoted clubs from Championship.

Pick: Under (3.5)

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Wow, you can tell that some of this weekend’s soccer lines came out in Vegas (and especially London) well before Matchday 2’s outcomes were all in the books.

Tottenham opened as a mild favorite to beat Magpies at home, but gamblers love the hosts on Matchday 3 and have shortened the betting line to a tiny (-475) for Spurs.

It’s probably not worth the investment at high risk. Newcastle may have laid an egg in the opening pair of matches, but Spurs were an up-and-down side in 2018-19 and I’m not convinced they’re a 1-to-5 favorite in any Premiership meeting at this early stage.

Bovada is giving Magpies (+2) goals ATS.

Pick: Newcastle to cover

Wolves vs Burnley

Wolverhampton showed its stuff to the English football world against Man United once again. Make no mistake – in a 1-off setting Wolves can be as tough an outfit as there is in the sport.

Matchday 3 is not a 1-off, of course, and no favored host with a (-120) moneyline should be accepted as an automatic winner. Especially since Wanderers have only mustered 2 points on the season so far despite all of the celebration and fanfare of last week.

Clarets may be a noble underdog at (+380), having drawn with Arsenal through 45+ last Saturday after slicing-up Southampton for 3 tallies in the opener.

But Burnley’s backline far out-shone the club’s pedestrian attack in the club’s 2^nd match of its 2019-20 Premier League campaign, leading me to think that another surprising draw – not surprising upset win – will occur in Wolverhampton on Sunday.

Bettors seem to agree, shortening the Draw line to (+240) as of Wednesday afternoon.

Pick: Draw